The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[Rudolf]

$1B WW, maybe.$300m DOM$680m OSGive or take 10%.

whatever it makes but less than 70% OS????I highly doubt that

[peludo]

Based on TDKR and TASM and the levels of hype and buzz for those films and what I don't see for The Hobbit.

I do not live in China and I have never been there. Just one question. Did Journey 2, MIB3 or Battleship has the same or much higher hype/buzz than TDKR and TASM?

[John Marston]

Even though I don't agree with Algren's numbers I understand where he is coming from. Most people have just ASSUMED that this will be performing like LOTR. Truth is, we have to wait and see.Also, China is a pretty unpredictable market. Spiderman which broke the OW back in 2007 came so close to be outgrossed by Battleshit. So big performance in the past doesn't necessarily guarantee big performance in the future.

ASM was a reboot and opened on the same day as TDKR not to mention lost 3d screens just five days or so later. Not the same. Instead of ASM, Star Wars, Tou Story and POTC are better examples

[The Toymaker]

I've only lived here since August. I can't comment on Battleship, MIB3 and Journey 2. The added comparison is that TASM and TDKR were released on the same day and The Hobbit and Skyfall are going to be released very close to each other too. So, the lesser buzz and this awful release date makes me think $40m is tops. This is my prediction based on what I see. I am not telling you all to think that too. If I were you, I'd listen to firedeep. His knowledge of China is far greater than mine.

[peludo]

I've only lived here since August. I can't comment on Battleship, MIB3 and Journey 2. The added comparison is that TASM and TDKR were released on the same day and The Hobbit and Skyfall are going to be released very close to each other too. So, the lesser buzz and this awful release date makes me think $40m is tops. This is my prediction based on what I see. I am not telling you all to think that too. If I were you, I'd listen to firedeep. His knowledge of China is far greater than mine.

I base my predictions in what I have read in Chinese forums and I think firedeep knows better than anyone in this forums about Chinese market. If I'm not wrong he was who said that Hobbit has potential for +100 in China. Of course, the fact that Hobbit and Skyfall will be released in the same week is a problem. For that reason I reduce my prediction from 125 to 80-90.

[The Toymaker]

Yeah, it's definitely better for you to listen to firedeep.

[IndustriousAngel]

Presales start today here, first shows are Wed 12th Dec starting at noon. Prices for 3D in HFR are €9.10 for opening night; 10.50 for the weekend. (That's with online booking; don't know about the regular prices yet)

edit: Just checked, atm there are 6 shows for opening day, 3 in HFR and 3 in standard 3D; no 2D option as yet. Prices are the same for 24 and 48 fps.

Running time is stated to be 170min and there's a reference to Ron Perlman in the cast so take that for what it's worth

Edited November 1, 2012 by IndustriousAngel

[Elessar]

Running time is stated to be 170min and there's a reference to Ron Perlman in the cast so take that for what it's worth

Can you give a link? Probably a mistake...

[IndustriousAngel]

http://www.metropol-kino.at/movie/4564/der-hobbit-3d-hfr/12-12-2012Of course it's a mistake, they must have got old PR material but I guess the 170min runtime is correct since they timed the shows accordingly.

[Elessar]

Funny thing is Perlman was never in the Hobbit. It was just assumed he might be since he's buddy buddy with Del Toro.

[Robertron]

Im honestly starting to freak out a bit.If ROTK can manage $740m in 2003, what the hell is the Hobbit going to do with IMAX, 3D, HFR and all in 2012 prices???I'm seriously considering 1.4B OS....

Edited November 24, 2012 by Robertron

[John Marston]

I hear pre sales are doing very well in Australia.

[Robertron]

I hear pre sales are doing very well in Australia.

They're doing very well!Even if they weren't, it's opening on Boxing Day which is the biggest movie going day of the year - a monstrous opening day WILL happen.

[Rudolf]

It will surely make the highest gross OS for a movie not directed by James Cameron again.

[John Marston]

Any other presale news

[Robertron]

What would ROTK inflate to (with 3D)?

[Neo]

What would ROTK inflate to (with 3D)?

Using DOM to do it, which is not right. OS adjusting can be done but I heard it is really hard to do. Adjusting+25%(3D+IMAX)=1.2B OS.

[CJohn]

Isn't this pretty much locked to happen?

[Elessar]

$1b OS is never a lock, unless the movie's Avatar 2.

[peludo]

Im honestly starting to freak out a bit.If ROTK can manage $740m in 2003, what the hell is the Hobbit going to do with IMAX, 3D, HFR and all in 2012 prices???I'm seriously considering 1.4B OS....

Wow. I have never thought something like that. 1.4 billion would need absolutely free space in China and to hold admissions from LOTR movies. That is extremely difficult. Chinese situation with foreign market will kill the final number. But even with that, 1 billion OS is reachable.