blackspider Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I wouldn't say that. There are a lot of people who basically think it's the best film of the year and are gonna spread great WOM. Yeah you have the ones who despise it too, but guess what, Inception also had a lot of people like that. It will be very interesting to see how it holds up. 130-150m is definitely too low of a range. It's not getting toxic WOM.Agreed. This film is a wild card, we don't know what kind of run it's going to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Agreed. This film is a wild card, we don't know what kind of run it's going to have.But you do know that WOM is less than positive. For a film to achieve close to a 4X you need outstanding WOM, not mixed. I think it might end with a 2.4-2.5X. Off 55 OW that makes the range 130-150 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 But you do know that WOM is less than positive. For a film to achieve close to a 4X you need outstanding WOM, not mixed. I think it might end with a 2.4-2.5X. Off 55 OW that makes the range 130-150 imo.I don't think 200 is possible. But I think it has a chance at a 3 multiplier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 I don't think 200 is possible. But I think it has a chance at a 3 multiplier.Fair enough. I guess you can't rule it out, but I personally don't see how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 But you do know that WOM is less than positive. For a film to achieve close to a 4X you need outstanding WOM, not mixed. I think it might end with a 2.4-2.5X. Off 55 OW that makes the range 130-150 imo.Actually WOM is more than positive from everything I've seen so far. It's just the negative ones are really negative. But if you pay attention the majority of reactions are still positive. And Prom needs a little over a 3.6 multi off a 55m OW to hit 200, not a 4x. Not to mention its ow could go as high as $57m off its Friday number, in which case it would only need a 3.5x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Actually WOM is more than positive from everything I've seen so far. It's just the negative ones are really negative. But if you pay attention the majority of reactions are still positive. And Prom needs a little over a 3.6 multi off a 55m OW to hit 200, not a 4x. Not to mention its ow could go as high as $57m off its Friday number, in which case it would only need a 3.5x.Then you must be reading these positive reactions in places I don't have access to.And it's going to drop today for sure.Fri: 21.5Sat: 19Sun: 13.554 mill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Fair enough. I guess you can't rule it out, but I personally don't see how.Are negative reactions coming from people that thought this was going to be a masterpiece? Disappointment usually stems from too high of expectations. If the average moviegoer thought it was an entertaining film, that's all it needs to get decent legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Are negative reactions coming from people that thought this was going to be a masterpiece? Disappointment usually stems from too high of expectations. If the average moviegoer thought it was an entertaining film, that's all it needs to get decent legs.It's coming from people who thought it would be just better period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 It's coming from people who thought it would be just better period.Have you seen it? I'm working all this weekend so I won't have a chance until Sunday night or Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Then you must be reading these positive reactions in places I don't have access to.Go look anywhere. Twitter, IMDB, even here. The majority of reactions are positive, but the negative ones are really negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 That was the best part of the marketing. They used it for the original Alien trailer, which is one of the most effective ever.http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEVY_lonKf4It fades in and out and is much more effectively terrifying.Prometheus' use of it is more like a jack hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 don't get your hopes up for 200M people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 don't get your hopes up for 200M people.I won't, but it will go past your range, I'm willing to bet that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Go look anywhere. Twitter, IMDB, even here. The majority of reactions are positive, but the negative ones are really negative.Try this...chronological order or reviews coming in on imdb.....they are definitely mixed, and that is being kind.http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1446714/reviews?filter=chrono;filter=chrono;start=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 I won't, but it will go past your range, I'm willing to bet that.I'll take that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Try this...chronological order or reviews coming in on imdb.....they are definitely mixed, and that is being kind.http://www.imdb.com/...=chrono;start=0And it's pretty much what I said. Mainly a bunch of 9 and 10 star raves with some 1 star "worst movie ever" ones peppered in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Its not making 200 million. 200 million for any R-rated SciFi is a very difficult task even with good WOM so mixed WOM won't help at all. $150 million from 55 OW will be a really good performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sims Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 150M would be perfectly fine, and coupled with OS will be more than enough for a sequel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishMB Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 It's coming from people who thought it would be just better period.I disagree with you. Every single bad review/tweet I've read so far has started out with "Didn't live up to the hype." I would bet my house that regular audiences will really like the film. It's visually stunning, thought provoking, and leaves you with a Heroine. Just go type Prometheus in on twitter. Random people saying its "amazing" or "dude that was sick" or "Prometheus was dope man forreal".The bad tweets or reviews are either disappointed Alien fans and disgruntled women. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishMB Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I wouldn't trust IMBD because it favors the Internet crowd, Twitter is a MUCH better window to regular audiences' thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
