South Korea Box Office

[keysersoze123]

@IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son why did Oppenheimer CGV update to 162K. Is it due to walkups for Midnight shows? 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son why did Oppenheimer CGV update to 162K. Is it due to walkups for Midnight shows? 

PS continue accumulating 24/7, even though it's 3am there are still people buying tickets, just at a slower rate than at prime time (7pm-11pm typically) and this gets added onto the CGV total for the day. Right now 162k presales at CGV alone for Tuesday have been booked. Walkups begin when the first showings start. You asked if Oppenheimer had any midnight showings and I do not believe it does since we'd have seen the total presales decline if that was the case (they have risen from 572k to 592k in the last few hours.)

 

When you see presales declining on https://www.kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findRealTicketList.do that means the showings those tickets have been bought for are about to start, and these get taken off the accumulated total. You end up with a tug of war between future presales and redeemed tickets throughout the day until the day is mostly over and the future presales starts to win, resulting in 7pm-11pm being the "prime time" for presale accumulation.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

In this specific example, Oppenheimer's CGV went up by 5k since 00:20, which means around 10-12k tickets have been pre-booked for Tuesday alone in just the last three hours (assuming a 40-50% CGV ratio). Meanwhile the total presales have gone up from 576k to 592k, which would be approximately 16k tickets. This means that 4-6k tickets have been pre-booked after Tuesday, or around a third of all bookings right now. I don't have any comps for this specific timeframe but my gut is telling me that that is a pretty good number since Tuesday is a holiday and the opening day so you'd expect it to be extremely frontloaded. The weekend is still three days away so this is a sign that its legs could be strong.

Edited August 14, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

In this specific example, Oppenheimer's CGV went up by 5k since 00:20, which means around 10-12k tickets have been pre-booked for Tuesday alone in just the last three hours (assuming a 40-50% CGV ratio). Meanwhile the total presales have gone up from 576k to 592k, which would be approximately 16k tickets. This means that 4-6k tickets have been pre-booked after Tuesday, or around a third of all bookings right now. I don't have any comps for this specific timeframe but my gut is telling me that that is a pretty good number since Tuesday is a holiday and the opening day so you'd expect it to be extremely frontloaded. The weekend is still three days away so this is a sign that its legs could be strong.

 

This CGV starts locks an OW over $20m (2.3m admission) IMO, historical drama shoudn't be frontloaded so hoping for closer to 2.6m start although it would need a good weekend for that.

 

EDIT: To clearify, i am NOT challenging / daring the boxoffice  god to give this movie Avatar PS multies, not in the slightest!

Edited August 14, 2023 by pepsa

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

In this specific example, Oppenheimer's CGV went up by 5k since 00:20, which means around 10-12k tickets have been pre-booked for Tuesday alone in just the last three hours (assuming a 40-50% CGV ratio). Meanwhile the total presales have gone up from 576k to 592k, which would be approximately 16k tickets. This means that 4-6k tickets have been pre-booked after Tuesday, or around a third of all bookings right now. I don't have any comps for this specific timeframe but my gut is telling me that that is a pretty good number since Tuesday is a holiday and the opening day so you'd expect it to be extremely frontloaded. The weekend is still three days away so this is a sign that its legs could be strong.

It has gone down from almost 593K to 587.5K. So either these are midnight shows are there are cancellations 🙂

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It has gone down from almost 593K to 587.5K. So either these are midnight shows are there are cancellations 🙂

 

I believe it starts to subtract showings that are starting within the next two hours. Right now it's 5:30am so that means any showings that are starting at 7:30 have been subtracted, I doubt there would be a significant number of cancellations.

 

Edit: also it seems the PS for the other movies have hardly changed so it seems like they have planned for Oppy's longer runtime by giving it the earliest showings possible to try and cram as many in for the day, hopefully this translates to big walkups.

Edited August 14, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[keysersoze123]

its now below 562K while CGV has been stuck at 163K. I am assuming these are from non CGV theaters or there is a delay between KOFIC and CGV. Anyway I am assuming CGV will move faster once the shows are on. 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its now below 562K while CGV has been stuck at 163K. I am assuming these are from non CGV theaters or there is a delay between KOFIC and CGV. Anyway I am assuming CGV will move faster once the shows are on. 

Yeah CGV updates in real-time (well, hourly but you get what I mean), it won't go up until the shows actually start while kobis is two hours ahead. Since we started seeing a drop in the PS after 5am that means the 7:20 CGV update in 20 mins will start to see a meaningful jump and by 8:20 the day will properly begin.

 

Edit: also remember that just because the presales decrease by a lot doesn't mean the CGV will increase by an equivalent amount (40-50% of what was lost) since those numbers are already accounted for in the CGV start which is the PS total for the day, most of the numbers added onto the CGV start will be walkups at this point.

Edited August 14, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

 

An early naver review 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Ah the holiday bump. Should have considered that. Should go over 550K OD, may be 600K

[charlie Jatinder]

so that whole korea instead of cgv thing is gone? that was quick.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

Ah the holiday bump. Should have considered that. Should go over 550K OD, may be 600K

Early walkups don't look amazing, looks like it's heading for a better IM than TWOW's first Saturday, but maybe not too much better. I agree with your range, something like 270k final (1.71x IM) with a 45% ratio for 600k.

 

 

Edited August 15, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[mr1006]

It makes sense that walkups are weak - all the premium formats (IMAX, Dolby Cinema) and the regular theater screens that have reputations for being high quality are more or less sold out from pre-sales alone.

 

It might have the same problem as Avatar 2 - people will wait to see it in higher-quality formats.

[keysersoze123]

Which means it could have leggy run without having extra ordinary egg score. 95% egg is just ok IMO. 

[pepsa]

I haven't seen the runrate yet but only adding 37k by 14h20 is a very slow pace. Maybe a CGV finish close to 240k?

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

I haven't seen the runrate yet but only adding 37k by 14h20 is a very slow pace. Maybe a CGV finish close to 240k?

 

By 15:20

Oppenheimer - 211k (158k start) -> 1.335x multi

Avatar 2 OD Wed - 138k (98k start) -> 1.408x multi

Avatar 2 1st Sat - 321k (246k start) -> 1.305x multi

 

It's playing very close to TWOWs first Sat (sadly), so probably ends with a similar IM (1.516x), 240k sounds right.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Golden Egg Scores

 

Oppenheimer - 94%

Sweet Sea 7510 - 98% (!)

Guardian - 72% (lol I wondered why the presales died after sneaks)

Meg 2 - 78% 

 

Sweet Sea = the next Elemental? 

 

Edit: now 92% for Oppy and 97% for Sweet Sea

Edited August 15, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

 

552,766 admissions for Oppenheimer's OD, the runtime seemed to affect the showing count, 5.4k is much lower than the 9k+ we've been seeing for recent tentpoles, there was a fair amount of competition though. ATP was 10,422 KRW ($7.81) which is lower than I was expecting but means that a lot of the PLF showings are still to come, as we all predicted.  OD should be around $4.3m. CGV ratio is 41.6%.

[pepsa]

553k OD and ATP doesn't seem to be incredibly high. It will be up to legs to get this movie to a nice total. Hopefully walks ups will be much better tomorrow.

[Issac Newton]

Naver - 8.60 (Split 8.61 M / 8.62 F) 

Megabox - 8.9⭐

 

I hope walk-up gets better tomorrow as I want 10M admits for Oppenheimer here - 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Issac Newton