Frozen OS thread

[Fullbuster]

OMG Frozen is amazing!

[Incarnadine]

Ice Age: The Meltdown overseas ($715,922,939) is going down. All Frozen has to do is match MU in Japan to pass it, which now seems like the low end of the possible range.

[portgas]

Ice Age: The Meltdown overseas ($715,922,939) is going down. All Frozen has to do is match MU in Japan to pass it, which now seems like the low end of the possible range.

Is there any place where i can see a list of OS all-time grosses?

[BadAtGender]

This chart should show it:

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/?pagenum=1&sort=osgross&order=DESC&p=.htm

[Omni]

I was excited by Frozen's numbers, and started to think MU would most certainly go down.

Then I gave another look at 2013's numbers.

 

Back to Earth, a comparison with Wreck-it-Ralph:

 

OW: 7.5 vs 3.6 ---> Frozen = WIR x 2.08

Opening Week (11/11.5 estimated weekdays): 18.5/19 vs 10.0 ---> Frozen = WIR x 1.85/1.9

 

So Frozen is holding worse than Ralph. Okay, Ralph likely had an earlier Spring Break boost as it opened a week later than Frozen, but the latter still needs to turn that sub-2x multiplier into a multiplier above 3x to get to 100M. It has like a dozen days of Spring Break after this weekend? Great, but let's remember that after these golden days, weekdays and holds will be much weaker, and the following boost comes after Easter. Frozen could even gross close to 60M on its first 24 days, and then fail to get 30M more in the remaining 10 weeks or so.

[mfantin65]

I was excited by Frozen's numbers, and started to think MU would most certainly go down.

Then I gave another look at 2013's numbers.

 

Back to Earth, a comparison with Wreck-it-Ralph:

 

OW: 7.5 vs 3.6 ---> Frozen = WIR x 2.08

Opening Week (11/11.5 estimated weekdays): 18.5/19 vs 10.0 ---> Frozen = WIR x 1.85/1.9

 

So Frozen is holding worse than Ralph. Okay, Ralph likely had an earlier Spring Break boost as it opened a week later than Frozen, but the latter still needs to turn that sub-2x multiplier into a multiplier above 3x to get to 100M. It has like a dozen days of Spring Break after this weekend? Great, but let's remember that after these golden days, weekdays and holds will be much weaker, and the following boost comes after Easter. Frozen could even gross close to 60M on its first 24 days, and then fail to get 30M more in the remaining 10 weeks or so.

O ptimism

M ust

N ever

I   nterfere w my estimates

[mfantin65]

I wain excited by Frozen's numbers, and started to think MU would most certainly go down.

Then I gave another look at 2013's numbers.

 

Back to Earth, a comparison with Wreck-it-Ralph:

 

OW: 7.5 vs 3.6 ---> Frozen = WIR x 2.08

Opening Week (11/11.5 estimated weekdays): 18.5/19 vs 10.0 ---> Frozen = WIR x 1.85/1.9

 

So Frozen is holding worse than Ralph. Okay, Ralph likely had an earlier Spring Break boost as it opened a week later than Frozen, but the latter still needs to turn that sub-2x multiplier into a multiplier above 3x to get to 100M. It has like a dozen days of Spring Break after this weekend? Great, but let's remember that after these golden days, weekdays and holds will be much weaker, and the following boost comes after Easter. Frozen could even gross close to 60M on its first 24 days, and then fail to get 30M more in the remaining 10 weeks or so.

WIR third week was less than previous weekend w/o spring break.

Frozen would have been 20% more sans holiday and no SB

 

Maybe frozen does 13m then next week based upon WIR spring break. 70m in 24 day then.

 

WIR did not have legs anywhere in the world. The only reason it had back to back 3.5 weekends and 6m mid weeks was because spring break.

 

After 24 days at 70m, the frozen legs kick In. It should be at least a ten week run and hold well the first six.

 

In the end you can't compare. Lets look at MU and TS3 numbers going forward.  Gotta look bigger not smaller.

[edroger3]

 

O ptimism

M ust

N ever

I   nterfere w my estimates

 

I totally agree with the point of view of Omni. To make a serious prediction about a movie you have to compare the original with something similar, for genre, for studio or for date of release. The best choice for me would be Tangled, but its run was strongly influenced by external factors, so WiR is good. In last november, someone is so crazy to compare Frozen with TS3?.

 

On the other hand, I think that to well analyze a "multi-platform" phenomenon like Frozen, it does not take a movie critic or a marketing expert but a social scientist.

[mfantin65]

Here is a better comparison.

MU had a slightly better OW, frozen however had a friday open. Lets call it even.

MU followed up w just a 5m midweek, just b4 summer started.

Frozen would have done 9m w/o holiday. you see where this going. 

MU then had an 8m midweek for first week of summer after 7m second weekend.

again frozen is going to blow that and the third week away. 

MU will have summer advantage after that but Frozen will already have a 15m lead. Not mention that this midweek minus the holiday was stronger than any MU summer midweek.

in other words I expect Frozen to out perform week over week even when spring break is over.

a statistitian will do for prediction.  That's what I am and I have been saying 110-130m for weeks now and the opening week  numbers are backing me up.

Edited March 21, 2014 by mfantin65

[edroger3]

Here is a better comparison.

MU had a slightly better OW, frozen however had a friday open. Lets call it even.

MU followed up w just a 5m midweek, just b4 summer started.

Frozen would have done 9m w/o holiday. you see where this going. 

MU then had an 8m midweek for first week of summer after 7m second weekend.

again frozen is going to blow that and the third week away. 

MU will have summer advantage after that but Frozen will already have a 15m lead. Not mention that this midweek minus the holiday was stronger than any MU summer midweek.

in other words I expect Frozen to out perform week over week even when spring break is over.

a statistitian will do for prediction.  That's what I am and I have been saying 110-130m for weeks now and the opening week  numbers are backing me up.

Statisticians never given exact predictions for Frozen! Before, now and after. Frozen is over the numbers!

Edited March 21, 2014 by edroger

[mfantin65]

Lets see how it tracks TS3 which has a 15% currency advantage.  Its got MU beat no need to compare.

 

TS3                                              Frozen

Weekend         Total

$11,156,768   $11,156,768.     $7,531,000    $9,731,000

$8,312,960.    $27,090,842.     $8,000,000    $29,000,000 est

$6,121,284.    $44,328,765

$7,134,502.    $62,557,777

$4,864,813.    $76,990,462

$6,245,451.    $95,797,512

$3,185,494     $107,751,566

$2,908,764     $115,404,636

                         $126,660,533

[LABAS]

Today is a discount day for a couple (2 for 2000 Yen) in 109 cinema chain 

Maybe we can see some boost today.

Edited March 22, 2014 by LABAS

[LABAS]

Update:

 

TOHO by 2 pm

 

32340 admissions

 

Last Saturday : 29121

[mfantin65]

I was excited by Frozen's numbers, and started to think MU would most certainly go down.Then I gave another look at 2013's numbers.Back to Earth, a comparison with Wreck-it-Ralph:OW: 7.5 vs 3.6 ---> Frozen = WIR x 2.08Opening Week (11/11.5 estimated weekdays): 18.5/19 vs 10.0 ---> Frozen = WIR x 1.85/1.9So Frozen is holding worse than Ralph. Okay, Ralph likely had an earlier Spring Break boost as it opened a week later than Frozen, but the latter still needs to turn that sub-2x multiplier into a multiplier above 3x to get to 100M. It has like a dozen days of Spring Break after this weekend? Great, but let's remember that after these golden days, weekdays and holds will be much weaker, and the following boost comes after Easter. Frozen could even gross close to 60M on its first 24 days, and then fail to get 30M more in the remaining 10 weeks or so.

using your WIR comparison. The upcoming midweek should be 75% bigger than this weekend. That would 15m.we mite be at your 75m prediction by end of spring break. Edited March 22, 2014 by mfantin65

[Planodisney]

I'm lost. The movie you want to use as a comparison grossed 29 million and Frozen will be close to that after 10 days. It's opening weekend was virtually double WiR. There is NO comparison. Some people love being negative and when they have 1 weekend out of 5 perform the way they projected, are convinced that there method is validated. 1 out of 5 in predictions proves your method is insanely wrong, nothing else.

[mfantin65]

I'm lost. The movie you want to use as a comparison grossed 29 million and Frozen will be close to that after 10 days. It's opening weekend was virtually double WiR. There is NO comparison. Some people love being negative and when they have 1 weekend out of 5 perform the way they projected, are convinced that there method is validated. 1 out of 5 in predictions proves your method is insanely wrong, nothing else.

That's what omni likes to do. Dart Vader fan I guess.

[wileECoyote]

Just finished catching up on the Japan thread. :oIts good in away the staggered release. It keeps the excitement of watching the Frozen breakout going. First US and parts of Europe and LA, then SK and finally Japan. Even China was a surprise after the gloomy forecast.

[BadAtGender]

The Japan release date may turn out to be as perfect as Thanksgiving was for the US release.

[druv10]

The Japan release date may turn out to be as perfect as Thanksgiving was for the US release.

 

To be fair, Corpse already said Frozen had the perfect release date in Japan. From the 2 Academy awards, 1B+ WW, crazy good WOM from rest of the world and multiple holidays in it's run. 

[Boxx93]

Somebody change the title to "Doing huge in Japan" already!