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Hiccup

Year 4 Actuals

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Alright so laying down some rules.

1. I will NOT change the actuals. If you don't like it deal with it.

2. The box office is unpredictable (just look at the box office since winter 2008). Some films surprise while others flop. Three things to remember about the box office this year. 1. There are a stack up of action flicks throughout May this will or could effect action films in the box office. 2. There is, like normal an overload of animated and horror films. If one film breaks out or sees strong word of mouth, the more likely the next films will suffer for it. This is especially true of animated/family films because families tend to be stingy with there money when it comes to the box office. 3. There is a stack up of superhero films more than normal and it is pretty self explanatory what could happen.

3. Unlike some people who do actuals, reviews matter. But as we all know sometimes poorly reviewed films do well (Twilight, Transformers, and Alvin and the Chipmunks) and excellent reviewed film don't do so good (Prometheus, Pirates! Band of Misfits, and Kung fu Panda 2).

Let's have fun and see what surprises and disappointments happen!

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January 3-5: The Morrow II Dominates

Morrow II continues to dominate the first weekend of January. Opener Call Me Maybe opens low than expected with 5.0 million.

1. The Morrow II: 39,604,196 (3rd week)

2. Spellforce II: 25,062,155 (4th week)

3. Dodge City: 24,503,233 (3rd week)

4. The Time Before That: 24,143,106 (2nd week)

5. 3D: 10,998,963 (2nd week)

6. Leitmotif: 9,860,187 (4th week)

7. Thane: 5,122,154 (6th week)

8. Call Me Maybe: 5,009,251

9. Red Rabbit: 3,699,016 (8th week)

10. Hercule Poirot:: 3,524,405 (5th week)

January 10-12: The Morrow II Continues Its Rule

Morrow II can’t be shaken. The Homestarmy Invades opened far better than thought with 10.0 million while MaZ3 opened at an expected 7.3 million. So far it is a weak start for Year 4 films.

1. The Morrow II: 24,017,122 (4th week)

2. Dodge City: 18,421,604 (4th week)

3. Spellforce 2: 16,014,144 (5th week)

4. Time Before That: 15,275,760 (3rd week)

5. The Homestarmy Invades: 9,987,124

6. MaZ3: 7,326,999

7. Leitmotif: 7,120,006 (5th week)

8. 3D: 4,502,296 (3rd week)

9. Thane: 3,608,107 (7th week)

10. Red Rabbit: 2,294,056 (6th week)

January 17-20 (MLK weekend): The Immune Smashes MLK Weekend

The Immune smashes the MLK weekend with 33.3 million over the four-day weekend. Reviews were great and word of mouth was strong. The Immune should hold up well in future weekends. Sasquatch took 17.4 million and generated so-so word of mouth. The two holdovers, The Homestrarmy Invades! And MaZ3 saw some hefty falls to 6.1M and 2.4M respectively.

1. The Immune: 27,553,109/33,315,066

2. Morrow II: 15,616,799/18,979,097 (5th week)

3. Sasquatch 3D: 14,358,888/17,400,995

4. Dodge City: 12,425,640/15,622,355 (5th week)

5. Time Before That: 9,805,506/13,203,188 (4th week)

6. Spellforce 2: 9,775,844/12,604,444 (6th week)

7. The Homsetrarmy Invades: 4,993,562/6,096,126 (-50.0%) (2nd week)

8. Leitmotif: 4,804,445/5,985,075 (6th week)

9. Thane: 2,501,144/3,200,670 (8th week)

10. MaZ3: 2,132,157/2,355,278 (-70.9%) (2nd week)

January 24-26: The Immune and A Stark Night Only $431 Apart

The Immune and A Stark Night were only 431 hundred apart which made it the closet photo finish in film history. The Immune saw an excellent drop as word of mouth kicks in. A Stark Night hit right on expectations and generated solid reviews and word of mouth. Sasquatch 3D slipped to 8.0 million.

1. The Immune: 16,175,996 (-41.3%) (2nd week)

2. A Stark Night: 16,175,565

3. Morrow II: 8,810,207 (6th week)

4. Dodge City: 8,607,844 (6th week)

5. Sasquatch 3D: 7,997,901 (-44.3%) (2nd week)

6. Time Before That: 6,021,105 (5th week)

7. Spellforce 2: 5,694,056 (7th week)

8. Leitmotif: 3,122,043 (7th week)

9. The Homsetrarmy Invades: 2,606,640 (3rd week)

January 31-February 2: Audiences Flock to Columbine and Leave Gaga

Columbine triggered 18.0 million and very mixed audience reactions. The road ahead might be shaky. A Stark Night fell only -37.5% to 10.1 million. Lady Gaga opens with 6.1 million and had a very frontloaded Friday which means legs are not going to happen.

1. Columbine: 18,001,019

2. A Stark Night: 10,109,103 (-37.5%) (2nd week)

3. The Immune: 8,071,822 (3rd week)

4. Lady Gaga: Born This Way 3D: 6,116,123

5. Dodge City: 5,703,102 (7th week)

6. Morrow II: 5,522,211 (7th week)

7. Sasquatch 3D: 4,782,745 (3rd week)

8. Time Before That: 4,046,496 (6th week)

9. Spellforce 2: 3,441,105 (8th week)

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February 7-9: Moviegoers Swarm to Bones and Unbalanced

February began with a utterly remarkable weekend. Bone: Vernal Equinox blasted to 41.1 million with great word of mouth from audiences. Families are apparently hungry for an animated flick. Madea’s Valentine opened lower than expected with 15.4 million. Unbalanced swept 10.6 million at only 250 sites. The internet phenomenon has apparently got audiences hooked and frightened. Final Fantasy: Dawn of the Souls had a 3D rerelease and generated 9.1 million and Columbine fell -53.3% to 8.4 million.

1. Bone: Vernal Equinox: 41,127,777

2. Madea’s Valentine: 15,444,125

3. Unbalanced (LIMITED): 10,557,250

4. Final Fantasy: Dawn of Souls (Rerelease): 9,146,963

5. Columbine: 8,414,463 (-53.3%) (2nd week)

6. A Stark Night: 6,641,682 (3rd week)

7. The Immune: 4,248,916 (4th week)

8. Dodge City: 4,204,464 (8th week)

9. Morrow II: 3,215,649 (8th week)

10. Time Before That: 2,607,899 (7th week)

February 14-17 (President's Day weekend): Pokemon 2 and Unbalanced Soar at Box Office

Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets smashed 60.2 million over four-days. The first Pokemon had great reviews along with a solid DVD sales and it has paid off. Word of mouth isn’t as strong as the first but Pokemon 2 is still a success. Unbalanced went wide with a incredibly 37.6 million over four-days. Audiences are eating up the new horror flick. Bone: Vernal Equinox fell solidly to 32.1 million over four-days. With no competition until mid-March Bone should make its way to a excellent finish. Forever Yours drew female audiences in with 27.0 million and Madea’s Valentine pulled a great drop to 12.4 million.

1. Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets: 52,257,920/60,202,666

2. Unbalanced (WIDE): 30,618,637/37,600,744 (2nd week)

3. Bone: Vernal Equinox: 26,669,141/32,128,930 (-35.2%) (2nd week)

4. Forever Yours: 22,226,000/27,001,912

5. Madea’s Valentine: 9,791,571/12,350,490 (-36.6%) (2nd week)

6. Columbine: 5,101,007/6,375,199 (3rd week)

7. Dodge City: 4,005,697/5,024,064 (9th week)

8. Final Fantasy: Dawn of Souls (Rerelease): 3,659,785/4,669,676 (-60.0%) (2nd week)

9. A Stark Night: 3,586,508/4,486,077 (4th week)

10. The Immune: 2,105,597/2,735,155 (5th week)

February 21-23: Army Takes Over Box Office While Holdovers Glow

Army of Two wins the weekend with 24.2 million. Pokemon 2 plummeted -59.2% to 21.2M but it should level out over the next few weeks. Unbalanced and Bones: Vernal Equinox both held extremely well falling to 16.0M and 19.3M respectively. Forever Yours fell to 11.2M and should finish in the average for most romantic dramas. Six Souls 3D flopped with 2.0M, it triggered on Rotten Tomatoes 69 rotten reviews and zero fresh.

1. Army of Two: 24,151,340

2. Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets: 21,208,770 (-59.4%) (2nd week)

3. Bones: Vernal Equinox: 19,281,789 (3rd week)

4. Unbalanced: 16,020,217 (-47.7%) (3rd week)

5. Forever Yours: 11,234,444 (-49.4%) (2nd week)

6. Madea’s Valentine: 4,130,505 (3rd week)

7. Columbine: 2,947,941 (4th week)

8. Dodge City: 2,529,008 (10th week)

9. Six Souls 3D: 2,003,654

10. A Stark Night: 1,875,644 (5th week)

February 28-March 2: Bones Takes #1 on Fourth Weekend while Mother Does Solid

With last weeks winner Army of Two falling to 11.3M, Bones: Vernal Equinox leaped into first again with 15.4M. Bones should pass 150M with ease. Phone Conversations with Mother opened along predictions with 13.0M and City of Darkness opened below expectations with 6.7M.

1. Bones: Vernal Equinox: 15,419,431 (4th week)

2. Phone Conversations with Mother- 12,965,171

3. Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets: 12,102,001 (3rd week)

4. Army of Two: 11,254,525 (-53.4%) (2nd week)

5. Unbalanced: 8,097,113 (4th week)

6. Forever Yours: 6,742,668 (3rd week)

7. City of Darkness: 6,666,661

8. Madea’s Valentine: 2,029,372 (4th week)

9. Columbine: 1,804,922 (5th week)

10. Dodge City: 1,146,555 (11th week)

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March 7-9: March Kicks Off Quiet

The Conundrum opened dead on expectations with 17.9M and The 39 Steps opened at 15.6M. This is the quietest start of March in awhile. Phone Conversations with Mother dropped nicely to 8.1M.

1. The Conundrum: 17,860,123

2. The 39 Steps: 15,564,997

3. Bones: Vernal Equinox: 9,729,660 (5th week)

4. Phone Conversations with Mother: 8,060,341 (-38.0%) (2nd week)

5. Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets: 6,456,100 (4th week)

6. Army of Two: 5,427,062 (3rd week)

7. Unbalanced: 4,296,666 (5th week)

8. Forever Yours: 4,119,119 (4th week)

9. City of Darkness: 2,555,843 (-61.7%) (2nd week)

10. Made’s Valentine: 1,016,150 (5th week)

March 14-16: Dawn of the Soul II Brings Back the Fire to the Box Office

Dawn of the Soul: II: Rebirth reenergized the box office with 78.7M opening weekend. Reviews were solid for the film but most agreed it wasn’t as good as the first. The sequel’s chances of making the 251M of the first are questionable since most sequels tend to have poor holding power. The Conundrum and The 39 Steps fell to 8.9M and 8.0M respectively. On the Set opened well on the limited front with a theater count of $9,999 thousand.

1. Dawn of Souls II: Rebirth: 78,659,155

2. The Conundrum: 8,875,481 (-50.3%) (2nd week)

3. The 39 Steps: 8,016,400 (-48.5%) (2nd week)

4. Bones: Vernal Equinox: 5,545,906 (6th week)

5. Phone Conversations with Mother: 4,755,602 (3rd week)

6. Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets: 2,711,562 (5th week)

7. Army of Two: 2,333,161 (4th week)

8. Unbalanced: 2,212,165 (6th week)

9. Forever Yours: 1,999,453 (5th week)

10. City of Darkness: 1,482,743 (3rd week)

On the Set (LIMITED): 449,955

March 21-23: Families Swarm to Sylvarius while Dawn of Souls II Sees a Average Fall

Sylvarius continued the strong momentum at the box office with 54.4M. Reviews are amazing and word of mouth is strong. The film lacks any competition for several weeks, which means legs will develop. Dawn of the Soul II: Rebirth fell -57.3%, which is average for a high profile sequel that earned average reviews. The sequel will not make it over 250M for sure. The Lost Planet of the Shrieking Creature disappointed with 7.1M. Audiences reacted toxically to it. On the Set jumped to 9th on the weekend with 1.4M.

1. Sylvarius: 54,408,333

2. Dawn of Souls II: Rebirth: 33,317,297 (-57.6%) (2nd week)

3. The Lost Planet of the Shrieking Creature: 7,120,181

4. The Conundrum: 4,660,626 (3rd week)

5. The 39 Steps: 4,413,020 (3rd week)

6. Phone Conversations with Mother: 2,521,469 (4th week)

7. Bones: Vernal Equinox: 2,206,271 (7th week)

8. Pokemon: Rise of the Rockets: 1,426,888 (6th week)

9. On the Set: 1,379,197 (2nd week)

10. Army of Two: 1,189,911 (5th week)

March 28-30: Illusiono 2 Dominates Final March Weekend and Sylvarius Sees an Amazing Hold

Illusiono 2 ends March strong with 46.7M. It has earned reviews similar to Dawn of the Soul II: Rebirth and isn’t as good as the first film. Sylvarius fell amazingly to 38.0M. 200M definitely looks like it could happen. On the Set went wide with 5.2M and Dawn of the Souls II: Rebirth fell to 17.7M.

1. Illusiono 2: 46,654,475

2. Sylvarius: 37,977,016 (-30.2%) (2nd week)

3. Dawn of the Souls II: Rebirth: 17,719,850 (3rd week)

4. On the Set (WIDE): 5,233,966 (3rd week)

5. The 39 Steps: 2,432,162 (4th week)

6. The Conundrum: 2,315,310 (4th week)

7. The Lost Planet of the Shrieking Creature: 1,858,366 (-73.9%) (2nd week)

8. Phone Conversations with Mother: 1,587,222 (5th week)

9. Bones: Vernal Equinox: 1,128,403 (8th week)

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There is, like normal an overload of animated and horror films. If one film breaks out or sees strong word of mouth, the more likely the next films will suffer for it. This is especially true of animated/family films because families tend to be stingy with there money when it comes to the box office.

Isn't it the other way around? Most animated films drop as soon as the next big one opens.Other than that, pretty much everything is going as expected.
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April 4-6: Sylvarius Leads First April Weekend while Illusiono Has a Steep Fall

1. Sylvarius: 24,571,129 (3rd week)

2. Illusiono 2: 16,935,576 (-63.7%) (2nd week)

3. Dawn of the Souls II: Rebirth: 10,042,070 (4th week)

4. Mermaid: 7,343,007

5. Weird Al Yankovic: Insert Title Here in 2-D: 5,456,109

6. On the Set: 3,433,482 (-34.4%) (4th week)

7. The 39 Steps: 1,500,402 (5th week)

8. The Conundrum: 1,377,272 (5th week)

9. The Lost Planet of the Shrieking Creature: 900,156 (3rd week)

April 11-13: Decker Wins Weekend

1. Decker: 17,106,106

2. Best Friends Forever: 14,489,423

3. Sylvarius: 12,285,566 (4th week)

4. Illusiono 2: 9,044,602 (3rd week)

5. Dawn of the Souls II: Rebirth: 5,593,445 (5th week)

6. Mermaid: 3,245,610 (-55.8%) (2nd week)

7. Weird Al Yankovic: Insert Title Here in 2-D: 2,022,225 (-62.9%) (2nd week)

8. On the Set: 1,933,338 (5th week)

April 18-20: Paranoia Terrorizes Weekend

1. Paranoia 2: 32,159,248

2. Decker: 13,890,158 (-18.8%) (2nd week)

3. Best Friends Forever: 11,200,324 (-22.7%) (2nd week)

4. Sylvarius: 8,452,469 (5th week)

5. Illusiono 2: 4,422,811 (4th week)

6. Dawn of the Souls II: Rebirth: 2,942,152 (6th week)

7. Mermaid: 1,667,215 (3rd week)

8. On the Set: 1,108,889 (6th week)

April 25-27: Paranoia Leads Weak Weekend and Best Friends Forever Continues to Hold Amazingly

1. Paranoia: 13,050,177 (-59.4%) (2nd week)

2. Best Friends Forever: 8,961,262 (3rd week)

3. Decker: 6,167,230 (3rd week)

4. Sylvarius: 4,226,636 (6th week)

5. Service: 4,004,238

6. Death of a Strawberry: 3,484,257

7. Illusiono 2: 2,346,583 (5th week)

8. Dawn of the Souls II: Rebirth: 1,751,111 (7th week)

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Those are insane legs for Best Friends Forever. :blink: Still, I won't complain. That single digit budget is going to yield massive profit. :shades:Anyways, I think you're overestimating some of the effects of animated films on competition. True, I said that competition should be effected, but that doesn't mean that animated movies drop over 50% when a family film makes 3.5m! Even ParaNorman dropped 26% against Finding Nemo 3D.

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