China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Shocker ! Rio 2 underperms ?   Sure, it's a weekend movie, but the fact that its opening Friday is doing just a little higher than Peabody is beyond anyone's imagination .... 

[Fake]

I am not that surprised. Rio was see-like-and-forget kind of movie. I doubt anyone was excited enough for the sequel.That said, there is still time for it to pick up.Even if it doesn't, I won't feel bad because that will allow Cap to confortably cross 100m.

[23IsEverywhere]

Shocker ! Rio 2 underperms ?   Sure, it's a weekend movie, but the fact that its opening Friday is doing just a little higher than Peabody is beyond anyone's imagination .... 

Does this mean that CA2 might increase from Thursday?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Very small increase, around what NFS did on 2nd Friday.

[LexJoker]

Very small increase, around what NFS did on 2nd Friday.

So what are the chances for $100M?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Think it again, $100m (620m) should happen for CA2. It will be at 490m $79m by Sunday, meaning 250m 2nd week including 30m+ inflation on Monday. Say it drops 60% on 3rd week (90m-) as most movies with normal runs do, it will be at  nearly 580m by next Sunday. 40m for rest of its run shouldnot be too big a problem because of a very small May holiday boost.

 

Next week competition is already tough, seeing two major new releases Transcendance and That Demon Within (a cop thiller from Dante Lam) opening both on Friday.

[druv10]

Very small increase, around what NFS did on 2nd Friday.

 

So 25-26M Yuan for Friday?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Seems right

[zackzack]

Think it again, $100m (620m) should happen for CA2. It will be at 490m $79m by Sunday, meaning 250m 2nd week including 30m+ inflation on Monday. Say it drops 60% on 3rd week (90m-) as most movies with normal runs do, it will be at  nearly 580m by next Sunday. 40m for rest of its run shouldnot be too big a problem because of a very small May holiday boost.

 

Next week competition is already tough, seeing two major new releases Transcendance and That Demon Within (a cop thiller from Dante Lam) opening both on Friday.

TRANSCENDENCE is no blockbuster material and a cop thriller rarely makes big money. CAP2 is fine but I also wish there is less competition.

[Olive]

Friday Est

CAP 27M  414M/$66.7m

Rio2  16M new

 

Weekend forcast

CAP  27+40+33=100M

RIO  16+35+30=81M

[A Marvel Fanboy]

TRANSCENDENCE is no blockbuster material and a cop thriller rarely makes big money. CAP2 is fine but I also wish there is less competition.

They are still undoutably major releases, however big they will be.

 

Maybe even higher than 40m for CA2 on Saturday.

[Donald]

All of this is nothing!Am waiting for the runs of gozilla,trans4mers and gone with the bullets,,now these are going to be epic to follow

[Donald]

I think transcendenc could hit 20mill dollars in its debut!

[A Marvel Fanboy]

All of this is nothing!Am waiting for the runs of gozilla,trans4mers and gone with the bullets,,now these are going to be epic to follow

Yup, let the B/C/D level movies dance for a while ....  wait till the real storms come.

 

I think transcendenc could hit 20mill dollars in its debut!

 

Could be hard but I hope it does.

Edited April 11, 2014 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Oh, dont forget to check out this latest news/rumor:

 

China's Foreign Movie Quota Set to Expand -- For Arthouse Films

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/chinas-foreign-movie-quota-set-694473

 

 

While it's not official, insiders tell THR that the rumors are true: The annual limit on imported films -- now at 34 -- will be raised to 44. The catch? The new guidelines likely will open the market only to art-house-style releases. It's a savvy move because "prestige" pics normally don't take a bite out of China's share of the box office. 

Now (if it's true) they will have to define arthouse films. 

[chain]

Hollywood films doing pretty good numbers in China so far.

Edited April 15, 2014 by chain

[Donald]

^ this

[Donald]

I honestly think avengers 2 can hit 150-170 tops....not 200!Firedeep!....infact scratch those 3 MOTHERS of china boxoffice avatar 2! First to hit 400mill! Locked

[A Marvel Fanboy]

There are 2 movies which I'm really anticipated to see its box office performance in China which are Transformers 4 and Avatar 2.

Transformers 4 have 300m-400m potential in China, while Avatar 2 have 1b+ potential in China alone!!!

 

The most anticipated being Avatar 2 because its box office results in China will shocked the whole world, I guaranteed it!

Avatar open in China when at that time China only have about 5000 screens and 10+ only IMAX screens and it make 220m! This is not even include yet the huge box office numbers stealing from it!

Avatar 2 will open in China with screens more than 30000 and hundreds of IMAX screens, most importantly Avatar word of mouth is very good in China with a ratings of 8.7 on China douban.com, many of you know that China audiences liked 3d films and Avatar 3d effects blow their mind!

With all these conditions, can you imagine how much will Avatar 2 make in China box office? Honestly speaking, it really have 1b+ potential in China alone!!!

 

Of course, next year The Avengers 2 also have 200m-300m potential in China.

Good lord. If it was me in 2011, I would predict similar (crazy) numbers for the two movies too. But now I trend to not. Maybe I have become conservative, as Sentrytrans always considers me to be ... but I have also learned there are things such as peaks and limitations. Not saying those numbers will absolutely not happen though ....

 

By the time Avatar 2 comes out, China probably could have more than 35000 screens at the rate screens being added. Last year it added 5000 (400 per month). Minimum 33000 screens with same rate by January 2017 when Avatar 2 is supposed to release.

 

However box office predicting is not simply screens accumulation. As we should notice, average box office productivity per screening for films have been dropping since new screens get buildt quickly, especially for 3D movies. In 2008/2009 when 3D movies were rare to see and there were only dozens of 3D screens in China, the per screening attendance for a 3D movie (whatever movie it was, as long as it was in 3D) used to be very high. At the time almost every 3D screening was full or nearly full. One ticket could be easily sold for over 100 yuan in second tie-er cities, no discount. Even in 2010, 3D movies still got very high PSA. UP! or HTTYD for example, both failed to cross 100m, but they still had more than 60 people per show in most of their runs and they play leggily, because there were not enough 3D screens for them.

 

Time flies to now, what ? Even live action blockbusters like CA, probably a top 10 of the year, could only mange a PSA of 56 people on its OW boosting by holidays. For regular releases or non-big hit animations, the PSA most of the time is very low (20~30 would be good/great for most 100m+ films on OW). 4 years later, Avatar still got the PSA records. People had to wait to see it also got it to run for a very long time.

 

IMO, how high A2 could do will depend on its quality and how many audience would like to show up for it in the whole country by the time it comes out, instead of how many screens there will be. If its another film revolution, then ....

Edited April 11, 2014 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I honestly think avengers 2 can hit 150-170 tops....not 200!Firedeep!....infact scratch those 3 MOTHERS of china boxofficeavatar 2! First to hit 400mill! Locked

I have to admit, if CA2 can do $100m, $150m should be the absolute floor for TA2. $200m seems more like a target.