China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Yeah $100m ($100m is 620m yuan, not 600m) should be locked for CA2. However I dont think it's going to get 110m (682m). $100~105m seems the reasonable range at the moment.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Huge Sat jump for Cap!

 

I was expecting 50-60%, but it is nearly 70%! Also, Sat-to-Sat drop is less than 50%.

 

Cap will reach 500m on Sunday and quite possibly 600m by next.

 

$100m is now well locked.

Actually so far CA2 daily holds still very similar to NFS.

 

NFS 2nd Friday 18.2m, 2nd Sat 31.1m, also +70%. That should be the normal 2nd Sat increase for Hollywoood movies with solid WOM in non-Summer non holidays. We dont know how much it will do next Friday (due to new releases), but it is bound to increase more than 70% next Saturday, going by general case.

 

Yeah, with some addional reports next Tuesday, it should get very very close to 500m by Sunday.

 

If it follows NFS (57~58% drop on 3rd week, 58~59% on 4th week and less than 10m thereafter) till end of its run, it would reach 640~650m by it closes. (244m + 255m 30m+ inflation on Monday should be minused when calculating 3rd week gross + 95m + 38m + 10m). Or around $104m. total.

 

Big local releases on 4.25/4.26 are another factor though, that NFS didnt have.

Edited April 12, 2014 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

So sane people think it can do 300M?

If it is epic, I think $300m cannot be ruled out. that's it. $250m seems more reasonable I'd admit.

[chain]

Edited April 14, 2014 by chain

[chain]

Only the insane ones

Hey, be polite with the word you used!!!

Edited April 15, 2014 by chain

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Actually so far CA2 daily holds still very similar to NFS.

 

NFS 2nd Friday 18.2m, 2nd Sat 31.1m, also +70%. That should be the normal 2nd Sat increase for Hollywoood movies with solid WOM in non-Summer non holidays. We dont know how much it will do next Friday (due to new releases), but it is bound to increase more than 70% next Saturday, going by general case.

 

Yeah, with some addional reports next Tuesday, it should get very very close to 500m by Sunday.

 

If it follows NFS (57~58% drop on 3rd week, 58~59% on 4th week and less than 10m thereafter) till end of its run, it would reach 640~650m by it closes. (244m + 255m 30m+ inflation on Monday should be minused when calculating 3rd week gross + 95m + 38m + 10m). Or around $104m. total.

 

Big local releases on 4.25/4.26 are another factor though, that NFS didnt have.

MAJOR CORRECTION:

 

Sorry that for NFS, I forgot to do the (1 - xx%) when calculating its 3 week drop (150m to 86m on 3rd, 86m to 36m on 4th). So for CA2 it should be:

 

If it follows NFS (42~43% drop on 3rd week, 58~59% on 4th week and less than 10m thereafter) till end of its run, it would reach 690~700m by the time it closes. (244m + 255m 30m+ inflation on Monday should be minused when calculating 3rd week gross + 128m + 52m + 10m+). Or around $111m total, instead of just $104m.

 

Thought something was wrong ....

Edited April 13, 2014 by firedeep

[Fake]

I think the dailies could be something like 14 14 12 11 12 20 17 = 100m week.What do you think?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I think the dailies could be something like14 14 12 11 12 20 17 = 100m week.What do you think?

NFS was basically from 25m to 11m. You think CA2 wont follow it any more ? CA2 Sunday should be 36m+ if Saturday 46m est holds. 56% Monday drop gives it 16.8m Monday.

[Fake]

Iron Man 3 had a bigger drop (close to 70%). So I am taking the middle ground.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

most likely 15~16m.

[Olive]

Saturday revised:

CAP 48m 463M

Rio 35M 49.7m

Hercules 5.7m 10.3m

[23IsEverywhere]

$74.54M for CA2

Only 159M (well 158.13M) yuan till $100M

[fmpro]

Saturday revised:CAP 48m 463MRio 35M 49.7mHercules 5.7m 10.3m

Even better . That means that Cap will reach 500 mill by sunday

[A Marvel Fanboy]

At this point it's pretty confident CA2 is heading to $110m if it does not start to drop badly or collapse for next two weeks. That number should be enough to lock it a spot in 2014 top 10.

 

Cap 2 crosses 500m on Sunday and claims top grossing Hollywood movie of 2014. It will hold that spot till Godzilla roars past.

 

About 82m OW for Rio, disappointing compared with general expectations, but objectively it's still not bad. The marketing for the film is considered not effective enough.

 

Top animation OWs:

IA4 ---- 130M ---- 2012 ---- 3days ---- 450M

KFP2 ---- 110M ---- 2011 ---- 2 days 

DM2 ----- 92M ----- 2014 ---- 3 days ---- 320M

Frozen ---- 88M ----- 2014 ---- 5 days

MU ----- 82M ---- 2013 ----- 3 days ---- 210M

Rio 2 ---- 82M ---- 2014 ---- 3 days ---- ?

 

Rio opened to 23m via 3 days in 2011. So about 256% higher.

Edited April 13, 2014 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

As we have noticed a while ago, this year Hollywood films overall have been performing much better than last year. When Thor 2 grossed $56m last November, no one would belive Cap 2 will double it to $110m five months later.

 

So far basically no misfire in terms of revenue sharing releases. Even the considerably underperforming Rio 2 still opens 255% bigger than its predecessor.

 

If 2014 yearly box office is to hit 28B RMB, and market share for foreign films could reach 45~50%, total foreign gross should be around 13B. Last year foreign gross was only 9B. Since the number of foreign releases will more or less stays the same, so it kinda means if any of the 2013 (Hollywood) film were released in 2014 instead of 2013, it would averagely grossed 45% (13B/9B) more than what it actually did. And that is right the amount Smaug increased from AUJ.

 

So really, bad luck for Hollywood movies came out in 2013 and good luck for those in 2014.

Edited April 13, 2014 by firedeep

[zackzack]

No sane people think it can do btn 200-250mill dollars

 

That is more reasonable for TF4

$400M, jeez, put down that pipe

[Olive]

Sunday est

Cap 38M  501M

Rio 29M 78.7M

[Sam]

What's the 3-day weekend drop for Cap?

[druv10]

What's the 3-day weekend drop for Cap?

 

53-54%, which is great as OW was boosted by holidays. 

Edited April 13, 2014 by druv10

[Donald]

Hey ,could u give me the oW for rio2 in dollars...Also weeked,,weekly for cap 2 thanx....in dollars