Olive Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Thursday Estimates Daily total 179M yuan 1). Monster Hunt ¥81M/cume: 1051M($169.3M) 2). JianBing Man ¥52.4M/cume: 696M($112.1M) 3). TMK : Hero is back ¥22.1M/cume: 573M($92.3M) 4). Seer 5: 12M/cume:12M($1.9M) 5). The Imitation Game ¥3.0M/cume: 9.1M($1.5M) 6). Shaun the sheep ¥1.5M/cume: 37.4M($6M) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 China and India are very similar (except for animations) Yeah, while China is opening more and more to animations and is responding much better to them now then earlier, they are still a no-no in India. India has opened a lot more and become a lot more receptive to Hollywood movies in the past year though so it can be said to be China as it was a few, 5-7, years, ago - a new 'Developing' China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Thursday Estimates Daily total 179M yuan 1). Monster Hunt ¥81M/cume: 1051M($169.3M) 2). JianBing Man ¥52.4M/cume: 696M($112.1M) 3). TMK : Hero is back ¥22.1M/cume: 573M($92.3M) 4). Seer 5: 12M/cume:12M($1.9M) 5). The Imitation Game ¥3.0M/cume: 9.1M($1.5M) 6). Shaun the sheep ¥1.5M/cume: 37.4M($6M) By the way, if this is the lockdown period for foreign films, why is Shaun and Imitation Game screening? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 By the way, if this is the lockdown period for foreign films, why is Shaun and Imitation Game screening? Blackout is just for revenue-sharing Hollywood blockbusters, small- budget movies can be released because they don't make much money at any time. Shaun and Imitation Game's rights are bought by local distributor for less than a few hundred thousand yuan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 MF Lawrence, based on your earlier table, does it mean that MH has no chance of overtaking TF4's gross? Especially since, MH's gross is slower than TF4 the past two days? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 MF Lawrence, based on your earlier table, does it mean that MH has no chance of overtaking TF4's gross? Especially since, MH's gross is slower than TF4 the past two days? I'd say they are pretty close. MH had a thur opening, that burn off could have lowered the daily numbers a little for the following week. The new opener is weak so little competition this weekend. Looks like MH will do 80-90m today and stay in lock step with TF4. But it must maintain 50% or less drops in the following 2 weeks which TF4 did and is rare in china. That being said MH will hold -35%~ today which is extremely rare and could be a sign of more good holds. TF4 was still making money when it was shut down at 30 days, MH has the advantage of staying open and gain ground if it does fall behind. I think MH has a better than even chance of beating TF4. Depends on whats opening in the next 2 weeks. If it does maintain -35% for the weekend and holds like that next weekend, then we start talking about FF7 I assume it will hold 50% in which case the table will match TF4 after this weekend and will be a foot race. So here are projections at -35%, daily data matching the performance of the last 7 days just to make it interesting TF4 MH Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Thur 162 162 27 Fri 195 195 32 131 293 48 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 187 42.7% 480 79 Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 181 -3.2% 661 108 Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 107 -40.9% 768 126 Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 101 -5.6% 869 142 Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 87 -13.9% 956 157 Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 81 -6.9% 1037 170 Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 85 4.9% -35.1% 1122 184 est Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 129 51.8% -31.0% 1251 205 proj Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 121 -6.2% -33.1% 1372 225 proj Mon 54 -58.3% -56.1% 1433 235 71 -41.3% -33.6% 1443 237 proj Tue 53 -1.9% -52.8% 1486 244 66 -7.0% -34.7% 1509 247 proj Wed 43 -18.9% -54.5% 1529 251 60 -9.1% -31.0% 1569 257 proj Thu 39 -9.3% -53.7% 1568 257 53 -11.7% -34.6% 1622 266 proj Fri 42 7.7% -51.8% 1610 264 57 7.5% -32.9% 1679 275 proj Sat 62 47.6% -52.2% 1672 274 83 45.6% -35.7% 1762 289 proj Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 77 -7.23% -36.4% 1839 301 proj Mon 26 -55.2% -51.9% 1756 288 45 -41.6% -36.6% 1884 309 proj Tue 28 7.7% -47.2% 1784 293 41 -8.9% -37.9% 1925 316 proj Wed 23 -17.9% -46.5% 1807 296 37 -9.8% -38.3% 1962 322 proj Thu 18 -21.7% -53.8% 1825 299 34 -8.1% -35.8% 1996 327 proj 1975 319 1996 327 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Ah... MH might have a chance at ¥2b then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asyulus Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Ah... MH might have a chance at ¥2b then. Its looking more probable as of now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Friday(7.24.2015) Estimates Daily total 182M yuan 1). Monster Hunt ¥79M/cume: 1129M($181.8M) 2). JianBing Man ¥46M/cume: 741M($119.3M) 3). TMK : Hero is back ¥21M/cume: 595M($95.8M) 4). Only You: 18.1M/cume:20M($3.2M) 5). Seer 5 ¥7.2M/cume: 19.1M($3.1M) 6). The Strange House ¥4.5M/cume: 4.5M($0.7M) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Wow - I think Monster Hunt has a shot at FF7 now. Maybe reaches 400 million USD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Friday(7.24.2015) Estimates Daily total 182M yuan 1). Monster Hunt ¥79M/cume: 1129M($181.8M) 2). JianBing Man ¥46M/cume: 741M($119.3M) 3). TMK : Hero is back ¥21M/cume: 595M($95.8M) 4). Only You: 18.1M/cume:20M($3.2M) 5). Seer 5 ¥7.2M/cume: 19.1M($3.1M) 6). The Strange House ¥4.5M/cume: 4.5M($0.7M) Drop from thursday with no big openers is not super great IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Drop from thursday with no big openers is not super great IMO It is true since most would have hoped for a small increase instead... Nevertheless, MH and TMK will break all time records this week. By today, TMK will be the top grossing animated film ever while MH will be the top grossing local film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 (edited) Drop from thursday with no big openers is not super great IMO That happens a lot in china. you never see Friday lower than Thursday in domestic, with or w/o new competition. Even Saturdays can be lower than Thursday with some movies. It is summer and Friday will have a much smaller bump. TF4 bumped just 3% its second Friday. MH's Monday drop was small and it held well throughout the week. I don't think Friday's performance was weak, it was Thursday performance was strong relative to Sunday's number. Evidence of this lies in the fact that Friday WoW was down just 38%. That's tremendous. Lets see if it can bump 40-50% today. Its still on track to beat TF4 unless a big slide happens next week. TF4 MH Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Thur 162 162 27 Fri 195 195 32 131 293 48 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 187 42.7% 480 79 Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 181 -3.2% 661 108 Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 107 -40.9% 768 126 Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 101 -5.6% 869 142 Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 87 -13.9% 956 157 Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 81 -6.9% -50.0% 1037 170 Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 79 -2.5% -39.7% 1116 183 Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 112 41.8% -40.1% 1228 201 est Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 108 -3.6% -40.3% 1336 219 proj Mon 54 -58.3% -56.1% 1433 235 60 -44.4% -43.9% 1396 229 proj Tue 53 -1.9% -52.8% 1486 244 55 -8.3% -45.5% 1451 238 proj Wed 43 -18.9% -54.5% 1529 251 51 -7.3% -41.4% 1502 246 proj Thu 39 -9.3% -53.7% 1568 257 45 -11.8% -44.4% 1547 254 proj Fri 42 7.7% -51.8% 1610 264 47 4.4% -40.5% 1594 261 proj Sat 62 47.6% -52.2% 1672 274 69 46.8% -38.4% 1663 273 proj Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 64 -7.25% -40.7% 1727 283 proj Mon 26 -55.2% -51.9% 1756 288 36 -43.8% -40.0% 1763 289 proj Tue 28 7.7% -47.2% 1784 293 34 -5.6% -38.2% 1797 295 proj Wed 23 -17.9% -46.5% 1807 296 33 -2.9% -35.3% 1830 300 proj Thu 18 -21.7% -53.8% 1825 299 30 -9.1% -33.3% 1860 305 proj 1975 319 2150 340 -360 Edited July 25, 2015 by M F Lawrence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 TMK has become the top animated movie in China by 3PM local time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy001 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Wow - I think Monster Hunt has a shot at FF7 now. Maybe reaches 400 million USD? beating ff7 naah nt really Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Wow - I think Monster Hunt has a shot at FF7 now. Maybe reaches 400 million USD? No, no reasonable shot yet. I don't even think this will pass 350m. 325-330m would be a good target unless we get a big saturday and Sunday and exceptional drops over the coming weekdays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 (edited) No, no reasonable shot yet. I don't even think this will pass 350m. 325-330m would be a good target unless we get a big saturday and Sunday and exceptional drops over the coming weekdays. its bumping over 50% today and holding -35% w/o/w. staying just a few % behind TF4 yeah, the weekdays will tell us something. I think the dailies will start beating TF4 350m will be likely if it hold 40% or better next weekend It will have to hold -38% w/o/w for 6 more weeks to beat FF7 Edited July 25, 2015 by M F Lawrence 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 its bumping over 50% today and holding -35% w/o/w. staying just a few % behind TF4 yeah, the weekdays will tell us something. I think the dailies will start beating TF4 350m will be likely if it hold 40% or better next weekend It will have to hold -38% w/o/w for 6 more weeks to beat FF7 Yup, looks like ¥120+ million is in for MH today. Incredible hold. Actually TMK is doing extremely well too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 MH 30% of showtimes, 45% of tickets. Itll get a lot more showtimes tomorrow and Monday. I think we'll see a good hold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Yup, looks like ¥120+ million is in for MH today. Incredible hold. Actually TMK is doing extremely well too! TMK holding -38% and crossed $100m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...