China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Because BOM's international data is woefully incomplete...

Maybe it hasn't ended it's China run, yet.

Kinda foolish of BOM.

[POTUS 2020]

Why hitting $400M? MH will be hit pretty hard by this week's opener Go Away, Mr Tumor! and will end up around $370M

I don't think it gets hit that bad. Mr Tumor looking to come in at 50-60m today, not huge. There is plenty of room in the market for both. If the media has mentioned it crossing 2B,TF4 and 28 day #1 streak it'll keep it relevant and wom will carry on.

MH has 14% of shows, last 2 thursdays it had 17%. Not a big drop. Its on pace for 16m today, down 40% w/o/w, TMK may be down only 30%, and To the Fore will be down 60%. MH and TMK are still holding their course while other holders fall away.  That keeps $400m in play for MH and 1B yuan for TMK is possible

It'll be at $370m by next sunday w plenty of run in it.

Edited August 13, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[MinaTakla]

Chinese Yuan devalued for the third day in a row, wondering when this will end. Anything more than 10% devaluation will affect BO a lot.

[POTUS 2020]

Chinese Yuan devalued for the third day in a row, wondering when this will end. Anything more than 10% devaluation will affect BO a lot.

The BO will be fine in terms of yuan for local movies and local profits.  The imports will have to make 3%(move so far) more to match previous records and revenues in dollars. If it moves 10%, it will just slow down the rise to beat Domestic which is measured in dollars. If the shanghai index dumps back thru the summer lows(it will be tested at the minimum) then we may see 10%. Also the dollar has declined steadily for 10 years. A lot of traders are the wrong way on this counter move and will have to close positions driving it a few % more in the near term

 

Japan had a 60% move in the last 2 years. The BO in yen is about the same this summer, But JW will make $60m instead of 100m for HLWD.  Studios will adjust, dollar records will be hard to break

[POTUS 2020]

We should wait to see if drops in currency continue or it has already finished. If we were thinking in $200m for MI5 before this change, we should say something like 1.2-1.25 billion Yuan. When the film is released we will be able to "traduce" that number to dollars with a more accurate figure.

 

For the record, before this drop, $100m was more or less 625 million Yuan.

sat at 6.21. 98% of the time for the last few months during FF7, AOU and JW

 

This is quite a spectacle... The gross in USD is lower than the day before

They must be using Ray Subers spreadsheet for OS BO. He had so many declining grosses in his OS weeklies due to currency changes

[TalismanRing]

Why hitting $400M? MH will be hit pretty hard by this week's opener Go Away, Mr Tumor! and will end up around $370M

 

Go Away, Mr Tumor!

 

That may be the worst title I've ever seen.

[POTUS 2020]

Mr Tumor barely going to break 40m, not looking like a 1B hit unless it play better on the weekend

 

MH mite make it to 19m today, down less than 30%. Its weathering the tumor so far. If it holds -35% or better thru the weekend it will be time to put the lock on FF7. It could then fall 40-50% after next week into sept and still get there. It will need one more -35% hold to get to $400

 

TMK battling for 5th w to the fore, trying to reach 5m down 37%. 950m locked, 1B very possible

 

FF7						TF4					MH
Day	Yn	% +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Thur											165			165	27
Fri						195			195	32	132			297	48
Sat	51	- MN				223	14.4%		418	69	188	42.4%		485	78
Sun	347			398	64	213	-4.6%		631	103	184	-2.1%		669	108
Mon	185	-46.7%		583	94	123	-42.1%		754	124	110	-40.2%		779	125
Tues	167	-9.7%		750	121	112	-8.9%		866	142	103	-6.4%		882	142
Wed	137	-18.0%		887	143	95	-15.7%		961	157	85	-17.5%		967	156
Thur	115	-16.1%		1002	162	84	-11.0%		1045	171	83	-2.4%	-49.7%	1050	169
Fri	142	23.8%		1144	185	87	3.4%	-55.3%	1132	186	81	-2.4%	-38.6%	1131	182
Sat	226	59.0%		1371	221	130	48.8%	-41.9%	1262	207	121	49.4%	-35.6%	1252	202
Sun	185	-18.1%	-46.6%	1556	251	118	-9.0%	-44.6%	1379	226	125	3.3%	-32.1%	1377	222
Mon	73	-60.6%	-60.5%	1629	263	54	-58.3%	-56.1%	1433	235	64	-48.8%	-41.8%	1441	232
Tue	65	-11.0%	-61.1%	1694	273	53	-1.9%	-52.8%	1486	244	62	-3.1%	-39.8%	1503	242
Wed	52	-19.4%	-61.8%	1747	282	43	-18.9%	-54.5%	1529	251	57	-8.1%	-32.9%	1560	251
Thu	45	-14.1%	-60.9%	1792	289	39	-9.3%	-53.7%	1568	257	44	-22.8%	-47.0%	1604	258
Fri	59	31.1%	-58.6%	1851	298	42	7.7%	-51.8%	1610	264	47	6.8%	-42.0%	1651	266
Sat	92	55.1%	-59.6%	1942	313	62	47.6%	-52.2%	1672	274	78	66.0%	-35.5%	1729	278
Sun	69	-24.2%	-62.6%	2012	324	58	-6.45%	-50.8%	1730	284	72	-7.69%	-42.4%	1801	290
Mon	27	-61.4%	-63.3%	2038	329	26	-55.2%	-51.9%	1756	288	38	-47.2%	-40.6%	1839	296
Tue	26	-1.5%	-59.4%	2065	334	28	7.7%	-47.2%	1784	293	36	-5.3%	-41.9%	1875	302
Wed	24	-10.2%	-54.8%	2088	337	23	-17.9%	-46.5%	1807	296	30	-16.7%	-47.4%	1905	307
Thu	31	32.5%	-30.2%	2120	342	18	-21.7%	-53.8%	1825	299	27	-10.0%	-38.6%	1932	311
Fri	67	114.6%	14.2%	2187	353	18	0.0%	-57.1%	1843	302	28	3.7%	-40.4%	1960	316
Sat	67	-0.6%	-26.8%	2254	364	24	33.3%	-61.3%	1867	306	44	57.1%	-43.6%	2004	323
Sun	39	-41.8%	-43.8%	2293	370	20	-16.67%	-65.5%	1887	309	46.5	5.68%	-35.4%	2051	330
Mon	15	-61.3%	-43.7%	2308	373	10	-50.0%	-61.5%	1897	311	23	-50.5%	-39.5%	2074	334
Tue	14	-9.3%	-48.1%	2322	375	10	0.0%	-64.3%	1907	313	24	4.3%	-33.3%	2098	338
Wed	12	-13.9%	-50.2%	2334	377	10	0.0%	-56.5%	1917	314	20.8	-13.3%	-30.7%	2118	341
Thu	10	-11.9%	-66.9%	2344	379	9	-10.0%	-50.0%	1926	316	19	-8.7%	-29.6%	2137	344	est
Fri	14	31.7%	-79.7%	2358	381	11	22.2%	-38.9%	1937	318	19	0.0%	-32.1%	2156	347	proj
Sat	24	71.5%	-64.9%	2381	385	11	0.0%	-54.2%	1948	319	30	57.9%	-31.8%	2186	352	proj
Sun	20	-15.3%	-49.0%	2401	388						30	0.00%	-35.5%	2216	356	proj
Mon	10	-49.7%	-33.8%	2411	390						15	-50.0%	-34.8%	2231	359	proj
Tue											14	-6.7%	-41.7%	2245	361	proj
				2411	390				1948	319	13	-7.1%	-37.5%	2258	363	proj
											12	-7.7%	-36.8%	2270	365	proj
													2400	-2500	385	-400

 

[Olive]

The exchange rate changes every day and no one tracks their grosses in us dollar.

I Just use the newest ER.

[Olive]

Thursday(8.13.2015) Estimates

 

Daily total 93M yuan 

1). Mr. Tumor ￥41.2M/cume: 54.1M($8.46M) 

2). Monster Hunt ￥16.2M/cume: 2136M($334M) 

3)  Roco Kingdom 4  ￥8.5M/cume: 8.5M($1.33M) 

4). Detective Lady￥8.1M/cume: 9.4M($1.47M) 

5). To The Fore ￥4.5M/cume:111M($17.4M) 

6). TMK : Hero is backSeer ￥4.2M/cume: 879M($137.4M) 

7). .JianBingMan  ￥3.3M/cume:1126M($176.1M)

[jiangsen]

Mr Tumor barely going to break 40m, not looking like a 1B hit unless it play better on the weekend

 

Some of the box office guys in China are saying yesterday's lower-than-expected opening for Go Away influenced by Tianjin explosion...people all over China avoiding recreational activities...

 

Let's see if business picks up this weekend...I think this film won't be as frontloaded as previous weeks' openers.

Edited August 14, 2015 by jiangsen

[POTUS 2020]

MH and TMK was a little weaker than I expected, BO could have been affected. Both are looking to bump 10% today.

MR Tumor looks like it mite drop a little. Im thinking 140m OW(3 day) 400-500m total if its not too frontloaded

[sgchn40]

Mr Tumor barely going to break 40m, not looking like a 1B hit unless it play better on the weekend

Some of the box office guys in China are saying yesterday's lower-than-expected opening for Go Away influenced by Tianjin explosion...people all over China avoiding recreational activities...

Let's see if business picks up this weekend...I think this film won't be as frontloaded as previous weeks' openers.

It was a shocking disaster... Terrible... Mr tumor has a high rating on douban. Hope that translate to box office success.

[Olive]

Yeah, Tianjin accident surely is affecting the box office.

[MinaTakla]

Yuan finally went up today by 0.5%

Good sign if it doesn't fall again

[efialtes76]

TG presales:457

[MinaTakla]

TG presales:457

Any updates on the want to see index for Hollywood films?

Thanks:)

[efialtes76]

Any updates on the want to see index for Hollywood films?

Thanks:)

TG:257,262

MI5:202,233

Minions:221,905

Pixels:27,836

Ant-Man:87,736

[MinaTakla]

TG:257,262

MI5:202,233

Minions:221,905

Pixels:27,836

Ant-Man:87,736

Thanks! Great for the first 3 films, can T5 be bigger than we expect?

The pre-sales you posted would be huge if they are 450m Yuan..

[POTUS 2020]

MH going to hold -30-33% today

It would have to fall 50% or more starting next week to miss $390m, and that aint going to happen

FF7 locked.

$400m likely, needs to  hold -38% for 4 weeks for 2.5B

[tupek]

Wonderful! Record will be taken by a local film!!