China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Fake]

Can both do 40M each?

[Mojoguy]

I'm REALLY looking forward to the Spidey and Batman beatdown since they will be opening on the same day.Let the games begin!

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Can both do 40M each?

40M will happen no matter what. If not, then Hollywood can be closed ...

[Fake]

40M will happen no matter what. If not, then Hollywood can be closed ...

I meant in the first week alone?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I meant in the first week alone?

Will do in my opinion. But others might think otherwise.I will make my detail breakdown predictions for these 6 movies at the end of next week.

[Fake]

Will do in my opinion. But others might think otherwise.I will make my detail breakdown predictions for these 6 movies at the end of next week.

Okay. If it is possible, that means it will happen. :)If both can finish with 70M+, it should be considered a win.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Well under normal circumstances, both should easily do 100M+.

[peludo]

Well under normal circumstances, both should easily do 100M+.

Given the schedule, what do you expect for each movie?

[vc2002]

Well under normal circumstances, both should easily do 100M+.

If anything, TA just showed us the limit of what a SH film could do in China. 100m is never an EASY job, particularly not for a SH movie. Edited August 15, 2012 by vc2002

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Given the schedule, what do you expect for each movie?

70M+

[A Marvel Fanboy]

If anything, TA just showed us the limit of what a SH film could do in China. 100m is never an EASY job, particularly not for a SH movie.

Again, TA didnt have the awareness/fanbase TDKR/TASM has.

[vc2002]

Again, TA didnt have the awareness/fanbase TDKR/TASM has.

What fanbase? If TDKR has at least the goodwill from TDK and the name of Inception's director, what does TASM has?Awareness? I have never, "literally", been to a Chinese forum that had a over-2-page TASM thread. In the meantime TDKR generated A LOT OF buzz and discussion.TA had a very friendly subject to the Chinese audience. It was cleverly marketed as being like a Alien-invasion big effects sci-fi, and Chinese audience always love that. Plus it was also female-friendly for its pretty actors.TASM was supposed to be a toast from day one, and now TDKR will secure that. (Not that I think TDKR will hit $100m though.) Edited August 15, 2012 by vc2002

[A Marvel Fanboy]

We would never know the exact potentials the two could have had since the fact is that they are releasing on same day and a few other blockbusters following right behind. However, if they do turn to to be in the 80M+ range, you should agree that 100M could be easily done for them if not for what it is.Thought ?

[bballman24]

I'd say if TDKR makes anywhere near 70m with this clusterfuck schedule, 100m would have been passed easily if it had theaters by itself for at least a week.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

That is also what I think.

[bballman24]

That is also what I think.

Great minds think alike

[vc2002]

I'd say if TDKR makes anywhere near 70m with this clusterfuck schedule, 100m would have been passed easily if it had theaters by itself for at least a week.

I'm not sure how the schedule could "easily" cost it 30m. As a proof that TDKR can easily pass $100m, it's gonna have to be sth closer to $100m. But of cause, the problem is, it's all pure speculation and there's no way to prove and disprove it.Also, we have to see how TASM goes. If it scores poorly, then we could say it doesnt realy do much damage to TDKR and people just are just not showing up for SH movies.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I'm not sure how the schedule could "easily" cost it 30m. As a proof that TDKR can easily pass $100m, it's gonna have to be sth closer to $100m. But of cause, the problem is, it's all pure speculation and there's no way to prove and disprove it.

Also, we have to see how TASM goes. If it scores poorly, then we could say it doesnt realy do much damage to TDKR and people just are just not showing up for SH movies.

What ? Only sth close to 100M means it actually had 100M potential ? Under this bullshit schedule ? You are way underestimating the DIRECT competition among these big movies. I would say this, the current schedule probably cut its potential by as much as 30~50%.

As for Prometheus, it could have done 50M if all went right. But now, 20M will be lucky. Might even be totaly eclipsed by TDKR, TASM, TE2, like what IA4 did to Lorax (that animation only did less than $2.5M total). No exaggeration here. Original John Carter even did 50M, no fanbase at all.

This wont happen, unless you see sub 60M as poorly.

6 BIG movies, combined could easily do 2.5B+ yuan, now stucked in 3 weeks. Yet the current monthly record is only 16.4B yuan. Problem is the amount of audience is limited and their money and time are limited as well. Very very few people can go to the movies 5 times in one week. This September probably will finish around 1.8B if lucky.

Edited August 15, 2012 by firedeep

[vc2002]

What ? Only sth close to 100M means it actually had 100M potential ? Under this bullshit schedule ? You are way underestimating the DIRECT competition among these big movies. I would say this, the current schedule probably cut its potential by as much as 30~50%.

How do you prove it? Like I said, it's all speculation.

As for Prometheus, it could have done 50M if all went right. But now, 20M will be lucky. Might even be totaly eclipsed by TDKR, TASM, TE2, like what IA4 did to Lorax (that animation only did less than $2.5M total). No exaggeration here. Original John Carter even did 50M, no fanbase at all.

Again, how do you prove it? I mean, especially when Prometheus hasn't opened yet. BTW, Prometheus doesnt have a subject appearing to the Chinse audience in the first place. But John Carter does, and so it did solid busieness.

6 BIG movies, combined could easily do 2.5B+ yuan, now stucked in 3 weeks. Yet the current monthly record is only 16.4B yuan. Problem is the amount of audience is limited and their money and time are limited as well. Very very few people can go to the movies 5 times in one week. This September probably will finish around 1.8B if lucky.

2.5 billion Yuan means $66m each. I hope you take this "easily 2.5B+ yuan" as one of your opinions, not a matter of a fact. Also, the last two years has taught us that China is a market you never say no. People will be lining up for movies they are interested in. I'm not saying crowded schedule wont have an impact, but can that impact cost TDKR 30-50% of its business? No, I dont think so. Let's see how the market is accepting them as a whole, then we could have a rough idea. Edited August 16, 2012 by vc2002

[A Marvel Fanboy]

How do you prove it? Like I said, it's all speculation.

How do you prove it? Like I said, it's all speculation.

Yes, all speculation. Sad I dont even have a chance to prove my opinion. But you may have something on your side when the all 6 movies flops which is very likely.

Again, how do you prove it? I mean, especially when Prometheus hasn't opened yet. BTW, Prometheus doesnt have a subject appearing to the Chinse audience in the first place. But John Carter does, and so it did solid busieness.

Did you ever visit Prometheus's page on Mtime or read the comments to news about the movie ? Not many movies can get as many attentions/anticipations PROM has got. Here again, you are underestimating the population of the Aliens films in China by saying "Prometheus doesnt have a subject appearing to the Chinse audience in the first place".

2.5 billion Yuan means $66m each. I hope you take this "easily 2.5B+ yuan" as one of your opinions, not a matter of a fact. Also, the last two years has taught us that China is a market you never say no. People will be lining up for movies they are interested in. I'm not saying crowded schedule wont have an impact, but can that impact cost TDKR 30-50% of its business? No, I dont think so. Let's see how the market is accepting them as a whole, then we could have a rough idea.

Here is how an average of 66M could happen:

TDKR > MI4 (107M)

TASM > TA (92M)

PROM > JC (50M)

TE2 > Journey 2 (67M)

TBL > WOTT (27M)

TR > 20M

But yes, you probably dont agree with these comparisons from the first.

You can simply try to release TDKR with TA on the same day in July in North America, adding PROM 6 days later and TE2 4 days later, and see what happens. This is the nightmare no one/box office geek could ever imagine.

People will be lining up for movies they are interested in. I'm not saying crowded schedule wont have an impact, but can that impact cost TDKR 30-50% of its business?

Yes, people will be lining for what they want to see but what if they no longer can line up ? Most GA will have to make a choice between TDKR and TASM even though they want to check out both. And under the shadows of the giant two, relatively less appealing PROM, TR and TBL will totally BOMB. Mad 3 and THG wont do 400M yuan combined if they got dates of PROM OR TBL, probably 100M for each if not worse.