China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[POTUS 2020]

8 hours ago, StephenN18 said:

Any kind of prediction for X Men?

 

3 hours ago, A District 3 Engineer said:

 

110M to beat DOFP in USD, is that possible?

It's got DoFP beat in Yuan.  XR has changed by 6%.

40m this week thru Thursday 

This weekend could be 40-60m depending on show count. 25m next week before ID2 opens, and make a little more after. 

It should  have DOFP beat in dollars as well.

770m -790m. $117-120m. Would've had SW7, 825m, beat if it opened a week earlier.

 

FD PS at 900k Tues am

AB was at 2m. It popped last minute because of holiday, did 50m OD, would've been 35m w/o holiday.

TJB 3.67m popped on OD with great WOM. 80m OD.

Still looking like sub 20m OD. 

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Dementeleus]

Is there any way to find out what sort of exchange rate a studio is able to lock in for a release? (I'm assuming no.)

[Olive]

7 hours ago, Frank said:

Are you sure? I saw that Taiwan made $2.7m to Warcraft.

oh, what I post is only for Taipei city, about 40% of Taiwan.

31.5M NT$ = 980K USD

[Olive]

4 hours ago, Telemachos said:

Is there any way to find out what sort of exchange rate a studio is able to lock in for a release? (I'm assuming no.)

No, since exchange rate doesn't vary too much in a month(a movie's normal run), we usually use the OD ER．

[fmpro]

If midpoint today is 4pm again we could look at numbers around

 

WC   40 mill (big drop, not that good)

XMA 13,5 mill (tiny tiny drop, very very good)

[fabiopazzo2]

7 hours ago, fmpro said:

If midpoint today is 4pm again we could look at numbers around

 

WC   40 mill (big drop, not that good)

XMA 13,5 mill (tiny tiny drop, very very good)

WC can reach 300$?

[Olive]

Tuesday est 
WC 41.4M/1119M
X  14.2M/675M

[fmpro]

2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

WC can reach 300$?

 

No

[fmpro]

2 minutes ago, Olive said:

Tuesday est 
WC 41.4M/1119M
X  14.2M/675M

 

Very good for XMA... Meh drop for WC

[Alex]

22 hours ago, fmpro said:

 

More like 225 mill is the roof

 

 

So what are the est. drops after this week?

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

So what are the est. drops after this week?

 

I will let @No Prisoners handle this one. But it will colapse when ID2 opens soon

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

So what are the est. drops after this week?

 

2 minutes ago, fmpro said:

 

I will let @No Prisoners handle this one. But it will colapse when ID2 opens soon

yup. safe to assume a 75%+ drop next Friday against ID2. 60% next mon-thu.

still on course for $200-205m by sunday. $10m more next mon-thu, another 10m next fri-thu and not much more after that. should get into the $220s then be done

 

 

[fmpro]

Yeah. Should land around 225 mill~ish when all is said and done.. Pretty good number when they get 50% instead of 25%

That plus DOM covers budget and the rest covers P&A.. Homemarket will make the profit

[Alex]

1 minute ago, fmpro said:

Yeah. Should land around 225 mill~ish when all is said and done.. Pretty good number when they get 50% instead of 25%

That plus DOM covers budget and the rest covers P&A.. Homemarket will make the profit

 

Are you sure that they get 50% from China instead of 25%?

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Yeah. Should land around 225 mill~ish when all is said and done.. Pretty good number when they get 50% instead of 25%

That plus DOM covers budget and the rest covers P&A.. Homemarket will make the profit

 

I think these are high end totals

 

China: $225 x .50 =- $112.5m

O/S - China =  $210m x .40 =  $84m

Domestic: $60m x .55 = $33m

 

= approx $229.5 from the B.O

 

$160m + $110m = $270m

(P&A from Deadline)

 

It'll break even and eventually make a profit with ancillary but the problem is that ancillary from China is almost non existent and the Dom market where it's strongest isn't going to yield a lot in comparison to it's WW theatrical total.

 

 

[snitch]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

I think these are high end totals

 

China: $225 x .50 =- $112.5m

O/S - China =  $210m x .40 =  $84m

Domestic: $60m x .55 = $33m

 

= approx $229.5 from the B.O

 

$160m + $110m = $270m

(P&A from Deadline)

 

It'll break even and eventually make a profit with ancillary but the problem is that ancillary from China is almost non existent and the Dom market where it's strongest isn't going to yield a lot in comparison to it's WW theatrical total.

 

 

 

It is much more complex than that. You have to factor in the tie-in , adds  and deals with other companys. Plus, Wanda owns 18% of all screens in China, so that is 100% revenue from those. 

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, snitch said:

 

It is much more complex than that. You have to factor in the tie-in , adds  and deals with other companys. Plus, Wanda owns 18% of all screens in China, so that is 100% revenue from those. 

 

The revenue Wanda gets from Warcraft is partially also revenue they would have got showing another film so that doesn't all go to the bottom line of what makes Warcraft profitable for them.  Like Disney advertising on ESPN or ABC might get a lower rate but they still pay into those divisions and that P&A cost is assessed to the specific film even if the money all eventually goes to Disney's bottom line.

 

Tie ins and cross promotional deals are usually are there to mitigate and add on to spending on P&A so that's factored in.

 

Maybe the biggest not easily quantifiable factor though is how it impacts gaming and if it will bring in new and maybe bring back old players to the game.

Edited June 14, 2016 by TalismanRing

[fmpro]

48 minutes ago, Alex said:

Are you sure that they get 50% from China instead of 25%?

 

Thats what they say

[Blaze Heatnix]

That's a insane drop for Warcraft...75%, lol.

[Agafin]

46 minutes ago, fmpro said:

 

Thats what they say

 

Who said that? I don't think that even local productions get a 50% cut from the theatrical run there so I highly doubt that Warcraft gets any more than the usual Hollywood fare especially since it's still considered an import there (Wanda bought Legendary after it has already been produced). KFP3 for example is considered a local movie yet only got a 37% cut (according to Firedeep).

 

What I did read was that Wanda's theater chains (about 18% of the country's) do give it a bigger cut (perhaps more than 50%) but the other theaters (making up 82% of the market) give the usual 25%.