UserHN Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, POTUS said: WOM China How quickly WoM spreads in china. You just don't see Sunday bumps and -40% Monday holds in Domestic for great WoM, or 90%+ drops the following weekend for shyte WoM. 1000f had twice the PS for a week, then previews happened for both on Saturday- 6 days before OD. PS then evened out due to bad Wom on 1000F(along with last minute change to thurs 7pm previews for 1000F softening Fridays open). Then you can see them diverge bigtime. Youth 9.1 1000f 7.6 Day Yn % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Thur 27 27 Fri 76 76 12 67 94 14 Sat 107 40.6% 183 28 68 0.9% 162 25 Sun 109 2.5% 292 44 48 -29.9% 210 32 Mon 60 -45.2% 352 53 14 -70.6% 224 34 Tues 55 -8.3% 407 62 11 -21.4% 235 36 Wed 50 -9.1% 457 69 9 -18.2% 244 37 Thur 45 -10.0% 502 76 7 -20.0% 251 38 Proj Total 1000 152 300 45 Where do you think Coco will end up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 (edited) 52 minutes ago, UserHN said: Where do you think Coco will end up? its still targeting 1.2b/$180m. +/- 33m/$5m depending on screens held this weekend 1.3B/$196m is not out of the question if it keeps a lot of screens for New Years weekend and legs hard thru the close Edited December 18, 2017 by POTUS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 2017/12/15 at 12:18 PM, Gavin Feng said: TLJ under $50M in China Club Over/Under Rogue One?It's possible very close.$50M is too low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 hours ago, POTUS said: WOM China How quickly WoM spreads in china. You just don't see Sunday bumps and -40% Monday holds in Domestic for great WoM, or 90%+ drops the following weekend for shyte WoM. 1000f had twice the PS for a week, then previews happened for both on Saturday- 6 days before OD. PS then evened out due to bad Wom on 1000F(along with last minute change to thurs 7pm previews for 1000F softening Fridays open). Then you can see them diverge bigtime. Youth 9.1 1000f 7.6 Day Yn % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Thur 27 27 Fri 76 76 12 67 94 14 Sat 107 40.6% 183 28 68 0.9% 162 25 Sun 109 2.5% 292 44 48 -29.9% 210 32 Mon 60 -45.2% 352 53 14 -70.6% 224 34 Tues 55 -8.3% 407 62 11 -21.4% 235 36 Wed 50 -9.1% 457 69 9 -18.2% 244 37 Thur 45 -10.0% 502 76 7 -20.0% 251 38 Proj Total 1000 152 300 45 Yep, Youth is going 1B+ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Is there a chance that the Chinese moviegoers will enjoy The Last Jedi more than TFA/RO, since this film doesnt really rely on nostalgia? I know, its also the longest SW movie so maybe the Chinese will fall asleep before the 3rd act Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 With Youth reaching 1b, 2017 would end, if there are not more surprises, with 15 films over that mark among the 41 films that would have done it (I include Titanic in that list adding 1998 and 2012 grosses). With current ER that means 15 films over $150m in a single year. The #15 in USA is right now at $175m, just $25m more. I know that this year service fees inclusion distorts any right comparison with previous years, but could we see within 2-3 years that #15 in China is already bigger than in USA or this has been conjunctural? I am seeing that although the market is not increasing as it used to to 2-3 years ago, the grosses of biggest films are considerably higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Brainbug said: Is there a chance that the Chinese moviegoers will enjoy The Last Jedi more than TFA/RO, since this film doesnt really rely on nostalgia? I know, its also the longest SW movie so maybe the Chinese will fall asleep before the 3rd act SW7 rating was 8.2 R1 was 8.0 SW8 will need a 9 to do better than 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The Liquidator is very good IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 6 hours ago, POTUS said:SW7 rating was 8.2 R1 was 8.0 SW8 will need a 9 to do better than 7 Douban TLJ 7.7 before wide release TFA 7.1 RO 7.3 MaoYan score may be similar to SW7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) Secret Superstar has just got a Jan 19th release date. The Chinese distributor need the movie to pull in a huge number at CBO to break even. The Dangal effect. Edited December 19, 2017 by firedeep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 8 hours ago, firedeep said: I know they are much cheaper but does the release that cheap that is cost is not relevant here (say if the China release is just 7m US it is still adding around 200m RMB at the CBO break even point ? Or it is not the distributor that pay the distribution cost when you just get 25% ? Edited December 19, 2017 by Barnack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Barnack said: I know they are much cheaper but does the release that cheap that is cost is not relevant here (say if the China release is just 7m US it is still adding around 200m RMB at the CBO break even point ? Or it is not the distributor that pay the distribution cost when you just get 25% ? The distributor pays the distribution cost which ranges from RMB 2M to RMB 100m+, depending on the movie. In the case of Secret Superstar, I would guess the P&A budget (in China) falls around RMB 50m. Basically every release has a different revenue-sharing model between the distributor (0%-29.5%), CFGC/Huaxia Film (1% or 1.5%+extra fees), the foreign producer(fixed lincensing fee or fixed lincensing fee+revenue sharing), the Chinese buyer (fixed lincensing fee+revenue sharing), and the minimum guarantee deal maker. You never know how much each Chinese company involved earns exactly on a breakout hit. But you can tell who loses money when a movie flops. For the foreign producer, it is easier to tell how much they earn from a release in China as the deal is often reported in the media (quote release is 25% but that is not always true, could be more complicated; buyout release, ultimately depending on how much the Chinese distributor/minimum guarantee deal maker is willing to pay for the movie) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Tuesday after service feesYouth - 66.4M/451.2M (no drop from monday) 1k Faces of Dunjia- 17.15M/260.6m Coco - 7.7m/1040m (beat DM3 today!but slowed down)Paddington 2 - 2.45M/176M ($30M is dead)Loving Vincent - 1.4m/57.94m Darkest Hour - 0.23M/35.15m 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Can we expect a good surprise for Jumanji? Looksl ike the kind of film that could have a breakthrough in such a market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Fullbuster said: Can we expect a good surprise for Jumanji? Looksl ike the kind of film that could have a breakthrough in such a market. Yes, we love the Rock. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 we love bald like Rock, Statham. So Thanos' Infinity War will be huge!!! 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Olive Skywalker said: Yes, we love the Rock. How did Baywatch perform in China? Just curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, UserHN said: How did Baywatch perform in China? Just curious. Didn't get released since it's R-rated comedy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Wednesday after service feesYouth - 63.4M/513.7M -3%1k Faces of Dunjia- 15.55M/276.3m Coco - 7.05m/1047.3m Paddington 2 - 2.36M/178.5M Loving Vincent - 1.28m/59.23m Darkest Hour - 0.23M/35.37m 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 As of Friday, Coco has a bigger multiplier than Dangal. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...