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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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JCS Box Office Gold

JCS

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Official 2012 year end report from SARFT:

Yearly box office RMB 1707.3M (about $2.7B), increasing 30.18% from 2011, with RMB 827.3M (48.46%) comes from local films. China produced 893 films in 2012.

75 Chinese films were sold to some 80 countries in 2012 and collected gross RMB 106.3M ($170M) from offshore.

30% growth from last year!! WOW!

How much growth in 2013 (another 30%??) and lots more cinemas/screens too?

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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30% growth from last year!! WOW!How much growth in 2013 (another 30%??) and lots more cinemas/screens too?

Around 3832 screens were added in 2012. Total SN by end of 2012 was 13118.Yealy 2013 can be expected to reach at least RMB 20B, +17.6%. that is about $3.2B in current CR. SN should hit 16000 by end of 2013.
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JCS Box Office Gold

JCS

Posted
Posted

Around 3832 screens were added in 2012. Total SN by end of 2012 was 13118.Yealy 2013 can be expected to reach at least RMB 20B, +17.6%. that is about $3.2B in current CR.SN should hit 16000 by end of 2013.

Wow, will be another massive year for China BO in 2013! Exciting!
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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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Skyfall Forecast: A Close Look at How Much the English Spy Can Take Away from China

Okay, here we come. After earning $300M from North America, more than $160M from the native Britain and combined over $1.03 billions worldwide, James Bond finally is reaching his last frame of the journey —— China, next Monday on Jan 21. And during his 50 legendry years on duty, this will be the third time the great Britain spy sneaks into modern silver screens of the old orient country. Below is Firedeep's official analysis on the box office potential for the spy's latest action —— Skyfall.

The good:
1. Astonishing theater performances everyhwere else around the world, along with fantastic critic reviews and audience word of mouth.
2. The first Hollywood release of 2013, and also the first Hollywood release in two months since Life of Pi debuted Nov 22 last year.
3. No release on similar scale within 20 days front and back.
4. Students will be slowing out of school during its opening week.
5. IMAX and 4K copies available.

The bad:
1. Nearly three months delay from its early worldwide run.
2. Pirated DVD widely available before its theatical release here.
3. Moderate performance in most Asian markets, especially estern and southestern Asia.

The competitions:
Major releases around Skyfall include Xiyangyang 5 (1.24), a fifth sequel of China's most popular local animation series for kids, $30M-ish potential; Cloud Atlas (1.31), a R rated which got 30 minutes cut for its Chinese release, $20M-ish poential. That's it. In today's Chinese theatical status, these are some loose schedules.

The previous:
1. Casino Royale, Jan 30 2007, did RMB 95M, #8 of the year.
2. Quantum of Solace, Nov 5 2008, did RMB 142M, #7 of the year.
3. Avatar, Jan 4 2010, the first and the Blockbuster of the year, opened to RMB 287M via seven days, debuted on a Monday.
4. Mission Impossible, Jan 28 2012, the Tom Cruise spy film, debuted about RMB 280M through first seven days, and totaled RMB 669M $105M finial gross, making #5 biggest release of the year.

The breakdowns:
Skyfall will have four weeks.
The first one:
Midnight opening RMB 5M, more than what Avatar did.
Monday RMB 41M (midnight included), biggest Monday opening
Tuesday RMB 44M almost flat on Cheap Tuesday
Wednesday RMB 37M, -16%
Thursday RMB 30M, -19%
Friday RMB 41M, +36%
Saturday RMB 62M, +52%
Sunday RMB 49M, -21%

RMB 304M $48.5M first week, setting new 7 days opening record and Jan opening record.

With close to 50% drop, it gets 155M 2nd week or so.
Another 50-ish% drop, 78M 3nd week.

During the fourth week, Stephen Chow long waited blockbuster, Odyssey, another $200M worldwide grosser, opens. Skyfall will get serious hurt, say 70% drop. And Its run ends with an about 24M fourth tale.

The conclusion:
That is RMB 560M total box office for Skyfall, $89M in US$, which should be able to put it into 2013 top 10, probably #8 of the year, a rank on par with its two predecessors. And with that number, it should be able to remain the top grossing foreign movie of the year until Ironman 3 hits on May day.

. Edited by firedeep
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