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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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Bluebomb Box Office Gold

Bluebomb

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Posted

The numbers you mentioned here are in two different frames. One should always compare numbers from the same source. That is to say, in this case, $79M is estimated from Chinese online tracking as explained by firedeep, while $74M is the official number reported by the Chinese media. One can assume them from the same source (this is not really true of course :lol: )

On the other hand, I guess both $58M and $67M are reported by the Fox company. If the so-called box office stealing behavior exists (this is not necessarily real stolen, maybe someone just doestn't want oversea companies get too much share. Anyway, this is just a guess), then it's easy to understand why oversea companies always report a number less than Chinese official report.

So if one looks at the two differences again: $5M (79-74) and $ 9M (67-58), it is more reasonable now. Why the company estimate (58) is far less than the company actual (67)? In my opinion, they applied a normal model to do Sunday projection. However, in the record-breaking case, e.g. TF3 or Titanic 3D, the Sunday drop will be much better, as indicated by the online tracking. If they projected a 35% Sunday drop while it turned out 15%, that's around $3.4M in difference. Subtracted this, the difference between company estimate/actual, and the difference between Chinese estimate/actual, are almost the same: $5M v.s. $5.6M. What if they projected even worse? :rolleyes:

Finally, no matter where the $5M difference comes from ( 1-stolen, 2-failed online tracking, 3-large uncertainty in Chinese box office statistics, etc), it is much more acceptable than those $20M gap :D

Yeah, I agree. They applied the US model of Sunday projections which doesn't work in other countries. China and other places usually see declines in the 5-10% range for most movies on Sunday while some either stay flat or increase on Sunday because it is a rest day usually.
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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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Posted

One would think they know how much movies usually drop on Sunday in China. It's not like they just started following Chinese box office.

China and Russia blew up in the last year or so (I remember when Wanted made a shit load in Russia people were shocked) so the Chinese market isn't exactly easy to predict.
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