China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Olive]

Wednesday(12/03) Est

The Crossing 17.2M      41.4M      $6.71M

WWF             10.7M       119M      $19.4M

Interstellar       5.7M       691M      $112.3M  

RotL                2.2M       167M      $27.2M

Fury                1.8M       99.4M      $16.1M

 

[Quigley]

Oh....Ok. In that case it is quite possible.

Thanks. But could you give a more thorough analysis (what movies come out and how much they need to earn for $5B to happen)?

[Olive]

$5B is difficult. 30B yuan/$4.9B is more likely.

[Donald]

The crossing has really underperformed

[TalismanRing]

Is this Interstellar's last w/e?

[Olive]

Early Friday showtimes

Fleet of Time  37.7%

The Crossing 25.6%

Woman who Flirt 13%

Interstellar 7%

Penguins 3%

 

Interstellar's last will be next Friday.And the dominance of local movies begins this Friday.

[Fantaboy]

SW isn't really action packed, or at least not the type of action that Chinese audience like most. I'm not sure we would be hungry for space ship flying around. And a lot of us will probably think the lightsaber stuff is silly after all the local kungfu swordfighting movies we've watched.

 

But $100m has become kind of a standard for hollywood blockbusters in China at this moment, so I don't think that's gonna be too hard.

The real reason that we don't like it as American do is its nostalgic style not lacking of real action sequences.

Most of us define Hollywood blockbusters to have grand-scale,strong conflicts, non-stop exhilaration.

And I am sure SW has those key elements.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Thanks. But could you give a more thorough analysis (what movies come out and how much they need to earn for $5B to happen)?

For $5B (30.7B) to happen, Dec needs to produce 3.7B yuan-plus, weekly breakdown would be:

 

Dec 1 ~ Dec 7: 580m ~ #1 - Fleet of Time: 180m

Dec 8 ~ Dec 14:  540m ~ #1 - Fleet of Time: 200m

Dec 15 ~ Dec 21:  950m ~ #1 - Gone with the Bullets: 650m

Dec 22 ~ Dec 28:  1350m ~ #1 - Gone with the Bullets: 700m

Dec 29 ~ Dec 31:  280m

 

And in total RMB, FoT (Dec 5) needs to do 600m, GWTB (Dec 18) 2B, Taking of Tiger Mountain (Dec 24) 9~1B, My Girlfriend is Sick (Dec 12) 300m.

 

But now it looks a bit difficult since The Crossing already bombed. 

Edited December 4, 2014 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

And why there were the $100m would be difficult for SW7 talks ?

 

Sure, the nostalgic style would hurt its China potential, just like Skyfall ... but come on, it's STAR WARS (SW's Chinese fanbase is actually pretty big) and it's 2016 (a $8B+ year) ! It would only miss $100m if the movie were utter shit. $200m should be standard if it's anything sold.

 

2016 in China:

 

KFP3 ~ $300M

MI5 ~ $200M+

SW7 ~ $200M+

Warcraft ~ $200M

X-Men: Apocalypse ~ $180M+

Cap 3 ~ $180M+

Apes 3 ~  $150M+

S&B ~ $130M+

IA5 ~ $110M+

 

those are being conservative ...

[James]

And why there were the $100m would be difficult for SW7 talks ?

 

Sure, the nostalgic style would hurt its China potential, just like Skyfall ... but come on, it's STAR WARS (SW's Chinese fanbase is actually pretty big) and it's 2016 (a $8B+ year) ! It would only miss $100m if the movie were utter shit. $200m should be standard if it's anything sold.

 

2016 in China:

 

KFP3 ~ $300M

MI5 ~ $200M+

SW7 ~ $200M+

Warcraft ~ $200M

X-Men: Apocalypse ~ $180M+

Cap 3 ~ $180M+

Apes 3 ~  $150M+

S&B ~ $130M+

IA5 ~ $110M+

 

those are being conservative ...

You forgot Fantastic Beasts

[A Marvel Fanboy]

And the next Bourne ... too many of them. IA5 is a wild cat.

Edited December 4, 2014 by firedeep

[fmpro]

TMNT2, Dr Strange and Mummy 2016 should also make 100 mill

ID4 is up in the air for now

Skull Island could be a potential 150-200 mill IMO

[Donald]

4.2billion by nov 20th....

I think it can still top 5billion

.it would need to earn $700mill in dec

[Olive]

Thursday(12/03) Est

The Crossing 14.5M      50.5M      $8.21M

WWF             10.8M       131M      $21.3M

Interstellar       5.0M       697M      $113.3M  

RotL                2.0M       170M      $27.6M

Fury                1.6M       101M       $16.4M

[Donald]

The crossing needs a 150% increase on friday to save face!

[efialtes76]

 

Thursday(12/03) Est

The Crossing 14.5M      50.5M      $8.21M

WWF             10.8M       131M      $21.3M

Interstellar       5.0M       697M      $113.3M  

RotL                2.0M       170M      $27.6M

Fury                1.6M       101M       $16.4M

 

and Penguins?

[Olive]

and Penguins?

weekday numbers are very low for it, under 1M yuan every day, up to 206M yuan by Thursday.

[fmpro]

How are presales for GWTB doing?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

How are presales for GWTB doing?

So far, good. It's box office numbers ultimately depends on its film quality ...

 

Re Exodus: Gods and Kings, religions themed movies are unlikely to get released in China after The Da Vinci Code got pulled during release in 2006. Sarft are extremely senstive to those movies.

Edited December 5, 2014 by firedeep

[Olive]

Friday(12/05) Est

Fleet of Time  54.7M     76.0M      $12.3M

The Crossing 12.6M      67.2M      $10.9M

WWF             10.0M       141M      $22.9M

Interstellar       5.5M       702M      $114.1M  

Penguins        1.6M        207M      $33.7M