China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[alee7915]

A group of fans dressed in homemade replica armours of "Avengers: Age of Ultron" movie characters, Iron Man, Captain America and Thor, watch the film in a theatre in Changchun, Jilin province, China, May 16, 2015. Photo: Reuters

[Archerdude]

 

A group of fans dressed in homemade replica armours of "Avengers: Age of Ultron" movie characters, Iron Man, Captain America and Thor, watch the film in a theatre in Changchun, Jilin province, China, May 16, 2015. Photo: Reuters

 

Awesome pic!

[POTUS 2020]

Why such a small increase on sat? When this weekend was nearly 100%

I wouldn't call 73% small. Last sat was 85%.

Spidey did bump 105% its second weekend

I put it at 85% just to match. If weekdays decline harshly then 100% could happen

 

 

To anyone: So what is the occasion Wednesday? Holiday? Would Tuesday evening then bump as well like FF7 did day before may day?

[Lihongkim]

   

 

[keysersoze123]

Not sure there is any point tracking real time BO as these sites are not reliable. But cbooo is like 70% off compared to last Wednesday. But the key period would be between 6-9PM.

My guess(shooting in the dark) would be 60m yuan Monday.

 

Also Sunday actuals seem to be 165.7m. I assume they are still counting.

 

Olive,

   Can you confirm Sunday Actuals?

Edited May 18, 2015 by keysersoze123

[Olive]

Not sure there is any point tracking real time BO as these sites are not reliable. But cbooo is like 70% off compared to last Wednesday. But the key period would be between 6-9PM.

My guess(shooting in the dark) would be 60m yuan Monday.

 

Also Sunday actuals seem to be 165.7m. I assume they are still counting.

 

Olive,

   Can you confirm Sunday Actuals?

Sunday should be around 167M, so over-estimated again...

 

Today will see a hefty drop, maybe it's just a weekend movie, don't be surprised it comes under 50M today.

[keysersoze123]

WOW. Sub 50m would be bad. Anyway let us wait and watch.

[POTUS 2020]

WOW. Sub 50m would be bad. Anyway let us wait and watch.

fell 30% on sunday after all. just like TASM2

a 69% drop on the actual for monday = 50m, again same as TASM2 but it will be a much bigger thursday to Monday drop, 44.4%, than Tasm2 33% FF7 36.5% and TF4 35.7%.

It may be a weekend movie but weekdays play a bigger role than DOM. 33% vs 20% of BO and the lower the weekdays get the smaller the bounce on Friday

[keysersoze123]

at 8PM its at just under 46m at Cbooo. I guess 50m could happen after all.

 

Update At 850PM 51.56m already. I think 55m+ monday for sure with a chance for 60m. Good late recovery.

Edited May 18, 2015 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

950PM update(i think it must be close to final number). Cbooo is close to 55m. Othersite has it lower at 48.4m.

[fmpro]

I could live with 55 mill. That would make it a normal monday drop

[abra]

950PM update(i think it must be close to final number). Cbooo is close to 55m. Othersite has it lower at 48.4m.

Are there any other pages to track performance at the box office

outside ?

http://www.cbooo.cn/

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/#pageCont=ticketContent

Edited May 18, 2015 by abra

[Olive]

Monday est.

Age of Ultron: 50M/$8M, 1008M/$162.4M.

 

Let's hope it won't go down tomorrow.

[keysersoze123]

So Cbooo is also overestimating the numbers. That is interesting. They will adjust that tomorrow morning. By the way what is the reason you believe in increase on wednesday. So if its 50m today, it will be 45m tomorrow?

[Olive]

So Cbooo is also overestimating the numbers. That is interesting. They will adjust that tomorrow morning. By the way what is the reason you believe in increase on wednesday. So if its 50m today, it will be 45m tomorrow?

May 20th(5.20) is kinda like a semi- valentine's day.

[alee7915]

May 20th(5.20) is kinda like a semi- valentine's day.

semi- valentine's day?!...      

[POTUS 2020]

	TF4					FF7					AOU						Tasm	2
Day	Yn	Daily % +/-	Total	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Total	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Total	$ Tot	Trails TF4	Trails FF7	Yn	Daily % +/-	Tot
Fri	195		195	32
Sat	223	14.4%	418	69
Sun	213	-4.6%	631	103	398			398	64								61		61
Mon	123	-42.1%	754	124	185	-53.5%		583	94								36	-41.0%	97
Tues	112	-8.9%	866	142	167	-9.7%		750	121	212			212	34	107.8	86.8	34	-5.6%	131
Wed	95	-15.7%	961	157	137	-18.0%		887	143	122	-42.5%		334	54	103.6	89.2	28	-17.6%	159
Thur	84	-11.0%	1045	171	115	-16.1%		1002	162	90	-26.2%		424	68	102.9	93.2	24	-14.3%	183
Fri	87	3.4%	1132	186	142	23.8%		1144	185	127	41.1%		551	89	96.7	95.7	39	62.5%	222
Sat	130	48.8%	1262	207	226	59.0%		1371	221	235	84.6%		786	127	80.1	94.4	75	92.3%	297
Sun	118	-9.0%	1379	226	185	-18.1%	-53.4%	1556	251	165	-29.6%		951	153	72.8	97.7	52	-30.7%	349
Mon	54	-58.3%	1433	235	73	-60.6%	-60.5%	1629	263	50	-69.7%		1001	161	73.6	101.4	16	-69.2%	365
Tue	53	-1.9%	1486	244	65	-11.0%	-61.1%	1694	273	45	-10.0%	-78.8%	1046	169	75.0	104.6	17	6.3%	382
Wed	43	-18.9%	1529	251	52	-19.4%	-61.8%	1747	282	65	44.4%	-46.7%	1111	179	71.6	102.6	14	-17.6%	396
Thu	39	-9.3%	1568	257	45	-14.1%	-60.9%	1792	289	35	-46.2%	-61.1%	1146	185	72.4	104.2	13	-7.1%	409
Fri	42	7.7%	1610	264	59	31.1%	-58.6%	1851	298	49	40.0%	-61.4%	1195	193	71.3	105.8	19	46.2%	428
Sat	62	47.6%	1672	274	92	55.1%	-59.6%	1942	313	90	83.7%	-61.6%	1285	207	67.0	106.1	39	105.3%	467
Sun	58	-6.45%	1730	284	69	-24.2%	-62.6%	2012	324	64	-28.9%	-61.2%	1349	218	66.2	106.9	30	-23.1%	497
				319					390			Est	Total	240	-260			Total	591

Been a roller coaster. Started out on OD like it was heading to $300, Looked like mid 200s on wed and low 200s on thur. Upper 200s a possibility again on the weekend again and now back to mid 200s. where I think  itll stay. I assume it will lose an average of 10% a day with the valentines day in the middle then do its 40/80% bump on friday.  its trailing FF7 by 101M and will lose a just little ground this week, next week however it will lose close 20m as FF7 had only 28% drop due to holiday and fall 125M behind, then lose more ground in the final week..

[heinrich]

not til 2025 and there wont be a 1billion movie

 

 

yeh it's a long way to the top and indeed there wont be a 1b movie 

 

 

China will keep growing as long as they keep adding screens. Plus as Olive said currently only cities/towns have access to movies. Once they go into heartland of China BO will grow though that will help local movies(thankfully) than destruction Pron from hollywood.

 

 

I think they will beat domestic at some point as well. Just matter of time. As i said once movie theaters expand beyond cities there will be another big growth and that will be driven by local films. We will see China grossing 15B at that point. Domestically the gross is not growing that much. its range bound for years and I dont think even inflation will help as number of tickets sold keep going down. Plus number of screens are not growing that much and even that may not help as currently its not a saturated marketplace.

 

I think 2020 is possible but at some point its inevitable. But I dont know when we will see 1B USD film from China. That growth will peak at some point. I dont see the ceiling going up for ever. We would rather see multiple films thriving in parallel like domestic side.

China will continiue to grow rapidly... Don't forget there is a lot of room for this....  Don't forget also that China is a 3 times bigger than USA in population I mean.. So if China continues the growth and reach the levels of the US box office, how much money do you think will made the biggest blockbusters? Besides, it is not necessary to reach these levels. It is enough to reach half of them.

So that by 2020 China will smash US box office and will become the largest market in the world. As to the fact that in China the film will make $ 1 billion .... also only a matter of time. It may not be until 2020, but there will be such a film. Remember my words.

Нow one movie makes 400 million, and what will happen as grow more than three times its current levels ???

Oh and one more thing. Can anybody tell me in recent years, the annual growth of the Chinese market?

We can make some rough estimates against the US box office..

[Fake]

Congrats on hitting the Billion mark, but it is one day later than I initially expected.

Weekend recovery was quite nice after those dreadful Wednesday and Thursday drop. Should be able to hit $250m now.

[Olive]

Avatar made 13.5% of 2010 yearly box office, that would be 4B yuan in 2014...

So Avatar 2 making anything under 5B in 2018 would be flop.