China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[alee7915]

Wow.. Gotta love the Chinese cinemas. My local cinemas have a show every two hours, for a new release!

 

I just updated what I said, it still has at least one show in every hour at Wanda cinema which is the largest chain in China.    

Edited July 9, 2014 by A K A

[KATCH-2D2]

I just updated what I said, it still has at least one show in every hour at Wanda cinema which is the largest chain in China.    

Yup and my local cinemas are parts of the largest chain in Australia and they only have a show every 2-3 hours for a new release. The only reason Aus B.O looks respectable is because we pay 10-12USD for a 2D ticket! 

Edited July 9, 2014 by KATCH 22

[alee7915]

Yup and my local cinemas are parts of the largest chain in Australia and they only have a show every 2-3 hours for a new release. The only reason Aus B.O looks respectable is because we pay 10-12USD for 2D a ticket! 

 

Everything in Australia is very "expensive"!  Fruits, vegetables etc...! 

[KATCH-2D2]

Everything in Australia is very "expensive"!  Fruits, vegetables etc...! 

Tell me about it. I order almost everything from overseas because the cost plus shipping is still way cheaper than buying the same thing in Australia.  We've been robbed...

[alee7915]

Tell me about it. I order almost everything from overseas because the cost plus shipping is still way cheaper than buying the same thing in Australia.  We've been robbed...

 

Limes: $2.25.

Two Australian dollars, twenty-five cents.

That's £1.50 (US$2.30). Not for a bag. Not for a pair. Each. One lime cost £1.50. Infuriated, I stormed out of the shop, limeless.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21519050 

Edited July 9, 2014 by A K A

[Donald]

Wed actuals!?

[alee7915]

Wed actuals!?

 

Tomorrow, love!  

[Annayya]

the fun thing is, that because Japan has so few cinema theaters (and Japanese people are prepared to wait in line for their turn), TF4 makes more money here 14 days than FROZEN made there in 14 weeks

 

If there is as much demand for movies in Japan, why wouldn't they expand the number of theaters like China ?

[Ajbg]

If there is as much demand for movies in Japan, why wouldn't they expand the number of theaters like China ?

I think that there is a little more people in China than Japan. Ah! Ah! Ah! Edited July 9, 2014 by Ajbg

[alee7915]

I think that is a little more people in China than Japan. Ah! Ah! Ah!

   

[Annayya]

I think that is a little more people in China than Japan. Ah! Ah! Ah!

 

I am aware that the Japanese population is actually decreasing over the past decade or so, and who the hell doesn't know about the Chinese population.

I was just indirectly trying to find from Rudolf the reason why Japan has not had an increase in the number of theaters as his comment is implying that the Japanese always have to wait in the line to watch movies due to very few theaters.

 

Population may be decreasing but at the same time more people may want to watch movies.

Even in China, the rate of increase of revenue from movies is much higher than the rate of population increase.

So your sarcastic answer was unnecessary, as population is not a major factor to drive the box office. (Take India for example, hollywood box office is probably less than 10% compared to local movies. The movie ticket price is so cheap that it has no chance of making much $$$ even if it has millions of people watching it. Indians could watch a movie in a theater for less than $1. I don't need to remind you that India will overtake the Chinese population by 2025 but it will not have a significant affect on the box office due to other factors.)

[Ajbg]

I am aware that the Japanese population is actually decreasing over the past decade or so, and who the hell doesn't know about the Chinese population.I was just indirectly trying to find from Rudolf the reason why Japan has not had an increase in the number of theaters as his comment is implying that the Japanese always have to wait in the line to watch movies due to very few theaters.Population may be decreasing but at the same time more people may want to watch movies.Even in China, the rate of increase of revenue from movies is much higher than the rate of population increase.So your sarcastic answer was unnecessary, as population is not a major factor to drive the box office. (Take India for example, hollywood box office is probably less than 10% compared to local movies. The movie ticket price is so cheap that it has no chance of making much $$$ even if it has millions of people watching it. Indians could watch a movie in a theater for less than $1. I don't need to remind you that India will overtake the Chinese population by 2025 but it will not have a significant affect on the box office due to other factors.)

Sorry. It was not about your post at all. It's just that he/she said that Frozen needed 14 weeks to get same numbers of TF4, but like everybody knows China has more than 10 times Japan's population. Edited July 9, 2014 by Ajbg

[Ajbg]

Sorry. It was not about your post at all. It's just that he/she said that Frozen needed 14 weeks to get same numbers of Two weeks of TF4 in China, but like everybody knows China has more than 10 times Japan's population.

About China/Índia, There is another important thing: PIB per capita. Edited July 10, 2014 by Ajbg

[Mojoguy]

If there is as much demand for movies in Japan, why wouldn't they expand the number of theaters like China ?

Japan doesn't give a crap about most Hollywood blockbusters.

[Annayya]

A comment like this always gets on my nerves.

 

You can say you don't like the movie and give reasons why but there is a difference between stating your opinion opjectively and saying something in a condescending, "I'm on my pedestal looking down on your obviously incorrect views" kind of way which is what you just did.

 

You know what 58% of user rating means? It means 6 out of 10 people actually enjoy it. YOU are just one of the 4, not even the majority. And I'm pretty sure there'll be people buying TF4 blu-ray to watch it again when it comes out, it might even outsell the better movies that 'touch your heart', oh the horror!

 

I am not hating TF4. In fact I would rate it close to 6/10. My comment is inclined towards having only movies with reasonably decent story in the top 10 box office chart of a country which does not happen with China.

 

Similar response was made in the Japan box office thread where some people didn't want Frozen to beat Spirited Away because to them SA was better than Frozen. And if they can wish such a thing with a movie as good as Frozen then I have done nothing wrong to wish that TF4 doesn't end up making $300 million in China. Whether it will happen or not is irrelevant for me to express my opinions.

[Annayya]

First of all I highly doubt Hollywood studios are that dumb. After all, there is only one Transformers in the world. They of course know their pictures (with crappy stories or not) are no match to TF in China.

 

Secondly, it is possible that TF4  would not do any less than what it is doing if it did not feature so many Chinese elements. TF franchise has huge advantages in nature in China compared with normal blockbusters. ( See my previous post a few pages back).

 

China yealy theater admissions:

 

2010 ----- 284m

2011 ----- 372m

2012 ----- 472m

2013 ----- 620m

2014 ----- 800m *EST(+472m from 2011; +180m from 2013)

 

Clearly, in 2014, averagely there are 15m new audience per month compared with the last year (2013), and 39m new audience per month compared with 2011.

 

What does this mean ?

 

It means:

 

If all those 39 million new audience decides to flock to the theaters to catch a movie during the matter of 30 days this June/July. They probably and mostly likely would have chosen TF4. Actually they did. They come to the theaters for the first time in their life. And you expect them to pick Citizen Kane but not a Transformers film ?

 

TF franchise admissions:

 

TF1 ------- 9m

TF2 ------- 14m

TF3 ------- 28m

TF4 ------- 47m (1900m BO.; 40~41 ATP)

 

From TF1 to TF4, this franchise surely lost a certain amount of following (those who were bored by Bayformers) but it also gained much more new audience.

 

TF3 did 1100m in summer 2011. Today the market is 115% large than then. So, even without all those Chinese elements, theoretically TF4 could have done 2300m ($380m), instead of 1900m (north of $300m), and still appears to be normal in the standard of a TF film.

 

Does that sound scary to you ? 

 

Rottentomatoes ? what's that ? Can it be eaten ? 

 

Millions of new film audience in China do not know and do not care about what the critics say. They've never been to the theaters before. They probably dont bother to watch any more movies back at home too. They now go to the theaters less than twice a year. And when they go, they just want to be entertained and have their money well spent.

 

This is the main difference between the Chinese film market and any other film market: millions of new audience every year. In US and other mature markets, the yearly theater admissions are practically shrinking. Studios find them themselves dealing with old (and hard-to-please) moviegoers who are becoming less and less interested in going to the movies.

 

But can you blame the studios ? Business needs to go on. People (in the showbiz) need to keep their jobs. And (other) people need to be entertained. But not everyone likes to study New Wave Arthouse films. Big budget high profile "Hollywood" movies with easy storylines and visual spectaculars are still needed. If only they can find some new growth points of profits.

 

Like it or not, China and other developing markets are, at least a large major part of, the future of global film industry. Assuming no World Wars, China's film market will continue to grow at notable high rates in another 10 years or so. It wont reach any steady state until there are 2.5B year admissions (2x population) and 50000 screens. And sooner or later, China will have its own post-theater and merchandising film market, which could be much bigger than the box office market.

 

TF4 doing $300m is a good thing. It shows the market potential for a single movie. And it is a sign that gives the industry confidence. Everyone can see it that, if TF4 can make $300m, then soon the second and third $300m grosser will emerge. By soon, I mean in three years, there gotta to be other local or Hollywood films that match or outgross TF4. (Yes, sooner or later, Marvel's Avengers, Jurrasic World/Park, Pacific Rim, Warcraft, Star Wars ...... will all follow TF4 to do $300m in China. You just need to wait and see. ) Thus new screens will continue to be added. Investors will continue to come.

 

You may think TF4 doesnot deserve the 2B $300m. But since even real crappy film like The Monekey King can do $165m, crappy TV show like Dad Where Are We Going can do $100m, I say TF4 deserves every penny it makes.

 

You may think the tastes of Chinese audience are so low. But this is just what happens when millions of them firstly enter the theaters the first. Critics and senior movie lovers on Rottentomates probably have seen thousand films. So naturally they hate Transformers. But general audience, especially general Chinese audience, probably have only seen less than one hundred or fifty films in their life.

 

Again, like it or not, It's unlikely for Transformers's admissions to decline in China until there is no more new cinema audience. 

 

Good analysis. With the perspective of where people only watch 1 movie in a year in theaters it would make sense for them to watch something that they enjoy regardless of the story.

I watch at least 20 movies in theater per year (and a lot more at home), so I would naturally be picky with my likes and dislikes. For example, I thought 22 Jump Street was crap but it still made over $160 million in USA. I watched TF4 in IMAX 3D for $20 a ticket with a family of 4, so I contributed $80 at the box office.

Edited July 10, 2014 by Annayya

[vc2002]

$50m to go after Thursday.

[Michael Seng Wah]

$245mil including Wed's est?

 

$250 by Thursday, $280mil perhaps by Sunday.

 

$315-$320mil seems possible...

[Tower]

If there is as much demand for movies in Japan, why wouldn't they expand the number of theaters like China ?

 

He didn't mean that they literally wait in line, it was just a comment about Japan's good legs, and how people will wait to see a film a long time after it comes out. There is no shortage in theatres in Japan.

[superstancer]

India has a lot of problems economically and socially at present....once the country develops in all aspects on par with many Top countries India will be a market to look out for 

in certain cities like Hyderabad and Chennai Multiplex ticket prices are cheapest among Indian Metro Cities Rs.150($2.5) and Rs.120($2) 

China is bigger market than india....for instance may be TF4 numbers equal India BO for a year!!!!!