China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Quigley]

I'm not implying that SW7 will match FF7's OD, but based exclusively on these factors, it's not impossible. Obviously there are other factors that affect the final outcome but the fact that SW7 has the same presales as FF7 is in no way a bad thing.

[terrestrial]

573,138 only to give a ~ time-stamp for the growth

[FranMan]

37 minutes ago, quigquag33 said:

This is theoretical but it just shows that, in a market with a bigger number of screens, assuming the ratio of walk-ups to presales is the same for all movies, equal presales gives equal OD grosses.

 

We can't assume the ratio of walk-ins to presales have remained the same though. As terrestrial pointed out above, the ratio has gone up, and not insignificantly too it'd appear. But the point about TFA possibly earning a smaller actual payday is taken. At this stage we don't know how the pie has changed, whether it has become bigger or simply skewed.

 

Man, I'm burning with curiosity. 

[terrestrial]

47 minutes ago, quigquag33 said:

I'm not implying that SW7 will match FF7's OD, but based exclusively on these factors, it's not impossible. Obviously there are other factors that affect the final outcome but the fact that SW7 has the same presales as FF7 is in no way a bad thing.

 

5 minutes ago, FranMan said:

We can't assume the ratio of walk-ins to presales have remained the same though. As terrestrial pointed out above, the ratio has gone up, and not insignificantly too it'd appear. But the point about TFA possibly earning a smaller actual payday is taken. At this stage we don't know how the pie has changed, whether it has become bigger or simply skewed.

Man, I'm burning with curiosity. 

p. 1144 near the bottom are the tweets and Good Olive's explanation for the actual presales ratio

 

me too, I wrote it already in the dom Wednesday BO thread, I do not know what's more thrilling, dom OW with it's massive, long-lasting presales no one could really calculate at the beginning (and caused as such massive false predictions) or the Chinese 2-day OW

[terrestrial]

surpassed 600,000

actual 602,363

33 minutes after the last update....

 

edit:

 

that's what it shows beside the counter = split for OW I guess

 

• SFC上影永华店

  1-08 今天 ¥53起 1-09 明天 ¥53起 1-10 周日 ¥53起 更多

  大光明电影院

  1-08 今天 ¥30起 1-09 明天 ¥30起 1-10 周日 ¥30起 更多

  五角场万达电影城

  1-09 明天 ¥53起 1-10 周日 ¥53起 1-11 周一 ¥53起 更多

Edited January 8, 2016 by terrestrial

[XeOF4]

May I know where did you get those numbers?

[terrestrial]

20 minutes ago, XeOF4 said:

May I know where did you get those numbers?

a few pages back our Chinese specialists gave a link to Gewara, already prepared / en with SW 7

 

http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330

 

= please read up the last ~ 6 to 10 pages, there are a lot of explanations which website provides what/which kind of data and how reliable / usable those are

 

The Hollywood Reporter seems to have picked up on the article of Chinese (or was it China) Insider (or wrote their own piece)

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-star-wars-force-852823

Edited January 8, 2016 by terrestrial
typos

[bangbingchan]

10 minutes ago, XeOF4 said:

May I know where did you get those numbers?

gewara.com 

http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330

Gewara is not very part of presale online this year.The presale total on Maoyan didn't match FF7 OD at all.With more showtimes,TFA midnight preview is close to T5 last summer.

 

Maoyan.com

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78536

 

midnight preview 

the fifth one TFA

http://111.205.151.7/movies/0

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by bangbingchan

[XeOF4]

Thanks to both of you

 

So, the number of tickets is now 635245?

Edited January 8, 2016 by XeOF4

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, XeOF4 said:

Thanks to both of you

So, the number of tickets is now 635245?

Yes, but I hope for a soon visit of users familiar with the website who might can give insight if that number is meant for all available days or OW or... = that is, what I am not knowing for now (I should know, but I forgot, last time I used it was more than 6 months back), but to watch that counter... wow (and I am at work and surely should do something else...,but it is VERY quiet here today anyway, hence = me bad, me here  )

[POTUS 2020]

Maoyan, a better indicator, at 13m midnight. 56m for sat

It's tracking a little ahead of T5 which was 14m/153m for OD after having 60m in presales.

MN should get up to 18m and PS near 70m by tomorrow at 8am. 200m/30.5m OD is likely +/-10%. 

Unless walk ups are out of control due to lack of online discounts. Then who knows, but FF7 is in a galaxy far far away. Going to need help from Scotty on this one. 

[terrestrial]

6 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

.. but FF7 is in a galaxy far far away. Going to need help from Scotty on this one. 

I never even thought about that one, too many back-ground differences IMHO

 

I do not understand all of your abbreviations (MN?), but enough to get a way clearer picture (I ma not that concentrated on BO thinking for the moment)

[POTUS 2020]

18 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Yes, but I hope for a soon visit of users familiar with the website who might can give insight if that number is meant for all available days or OW or... = that is, what I am not knowing for now (I should know, but I forgot, last time I used it was more than 6 months back), but to watch that counter... wow (and I am at work and surely should do something else...,but it is VERY quiet here today anyway, hence = me bad, me here  )

Piaofang.maoyan.com

That tallies real time yuan sales. Tickets might average 35 - 40 yuan. So it showing over 1.5m tix sold then. 

When you get to site it'll show today SW is the one where today's total matches the cume. 5th down, 1289.9 right now, cume states 1290 which is 12.9m yuan, close to 2m dollars

Click on right arrow next to date and you'll see sunday. SW is on top with orange highlite, it's 5632. Cume adds in the MN. Total 6923.

It updates every 30m. Tomorrow's tally has been going up over 1m per hour. 2.75x~ Maoyan 8am number will get you close to OD total plus MN.

After 9am tomorrow you can track an hourly run rate that remains pretty consistent to narrow the projection. I check on the hourly jumps and multiply out the increases thru 10pm. So tomorrow should increase at Y10m per hour to get close to 200m

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by No Prisoners

[FranMan]

21 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Maoyan, a better indicator, at 13m midnight. 56m for sat

It's tracking a little ahead of T5 which was 14m/153m for OD after having 60m in presales.

MN should get up to 18m and PS near 70m by tomorrow at 8am. 200m/30.5m OD is likely +/-10%. 

Unless walk ups are out of control due to lack of online discounts. Then who knows, but FF7 is in a galaxy far far away. Going to need help from Scotty on this one. 

 

Yeah, there is quite the discrepancy between Gewara and Maoyan's tallies. Too many (more) variables in the former's case.

[terrestrial]

4 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Piaofang.maoyan.com

That tallies real time yuan sales. Tickets might average 35 - 40 yuan. So it showing over 1.5m tix sold then. 

When you get to site it'll show today SW is the one where today's total matches the cume. 5th down, 1289.9 right now, cume states 1290 which is 12.9m yuan, close to 2m dollars

Click on right arrow next to date and you'll see sunday. SW is on top with orange highlite, it's 5632. Cume adds in the MN. Total 6923.

It updates every 30m. Tomorrow's tally has been going up over 1m per hour. 2.75x~ Maoyan 8am number will get you close to OD total plus MN.

Thank you very much again.

 

But please, what means MN??? (btw, on this compuer I can not see an arrow with the date, but that might be an suppressing by some add-ons thingie)

[terrestrial]

aahhhh midnights!!! Me idiot

[druv10]

Gewara number is going crazy. Over 659K in presales and we still have 1.5 hrs till the midnight shows begin.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, FranMan said:

 

We can't assume the ratio of walk-ins to presales have remained the same though. As terrestrial pointed out above, the ratio has gone up, and not insignificantly too it'd appear. But the point about TFA possibly earning a smaller actual payday is taken. At this stage we don't know how the pie has changed, whether it has become bigger or simply skewed.

 

Man, I'm burning with curiosity. 

From FF7 all the way up to the Martian and PB last year, the pre-sale multiplier has been consistent at 2.75 for hlwd, 2.2 for local films.

This could deviate to over 3x due to lack of discounts on linr

[jiangsen]

Friday Estimates

Detective Chinatown: 34.1M/580M

Mr. Six: 21.9M/793M

Sherlock: 19.3M/111M

Star Wars TFA: 17.8M Midnights

Mojin 15.6M/1.622B

[Olive]

Friday est(1$=6.59RMB)

Detective Chinatown 34M/580M

Mr, Six 22m/793M

Sherlock Special 19.3M/111M

Mojin 15.6m/16.22m #2 Chinese movie of all time

Devil and Angel 1.9M/646M

 

SW7 Midnights 17.8M, #4 of all-time behind FF7(52.5m),AOU(29.8m) and TF4(21.1M).

OD on track to 190-210M, if it performs like Terminator 5, OD could even hit 215M+