China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, NCsoft said:

 

Thanks for your analysis, is that estimated YTD figure in RMB or USD? Also is it until around now or estimated until around Sep 30?

Est thru Sept 30 in RMB.  Up 4% in dollars

[Lihongkim]

Feng Xiaogang's movie moved to Nov. 18th. Oct won't be safe. 

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, Lihongkim said:

Feng Xiaogang's movie moved to Nov. 18th. Oct won't be safe. 

Last oct did over 4B with GML doing 1.4b, LiHK making 700m(in Oct) and AM making over 600m. Based on PS it doesn't look like there will be a 1.5B movie this holiday and no SS to make up for AM. Oct could be down over 1B putting the year at +6% and nearly flat in dollars.

 

Storks PS at 1.6m. Still looking like a teens OD.

[Gavin Feng]

China Box Office
Jason Bourne
Day	Date		Rank	Gross	% - YD	% - LW	Gross-to-Date	Day #	Weekly Gross	% - Change
				USD / M			USD / M		USD / M
Mon	Aug . 22		1	$0.61	-	-	$0.61	0	$49.31	-
Tue	Aug . 23		1	$11.20	-	-	$11.81	1
Wed	Aug . 24		1	$7.53	-36.22%	-	$19.34	2
Thu	Aug . 25		1	$5.90	-21.60%	-	$25.24	3
Fri	Aug . 26		1	$6.69	13.37%	-	$31.93	4
Sat	Aug . 27		1	$9.61	43.56%	-	$41.54	5
Sun	Aug . 28		2	$7.77	-19.12%	-	$49.31	6
Mon	Aug . 29		2	$3.34	-57.07%	-	$52.64	7	$14.38	-70.83%
Tue	Aug . 30		2	$2.99	-10.38%	-74.68%	$55.63	8
Wed	Aug . 31		2	$2.45	-18.14%	-67.50%	$58.08	9
Thu	Sep . 1		2	$1.92	-21.54%	-67.47%	$60.00	10
Fri	Sep . 2		5	$0.90	-53.33%	-86.61%	$60.90	11
Sat	Sep . 3		3	$1.57	74.79%	-83.70%	$62.46	12
Sun	Sep . 4		4	$1.23	-21.63%	-84.21%	$63.69	13
Mon	Sep . 5		4	$0.47	-61.72%	-85.91%	$64.16	14	$2.89	-79.93%
Tue	Sep . 6		4	$0.47	-0.64%	-84.38%	$64.63	15
Wed	Sep . 7		3	$0.44	-6.45%	-82.15%	$65.06	16
Thu	Sep . 8		3	$0.41	-6.90%	-78.82%	$65.47	17
Fri	Sep . 9		6	$0.27	-33.33%	-69.75%	$65.74	18
Sat	Sep . 10		5	$0.46	69.44%	-70.67%	$66.20	19
Sun	Sep . 11		5	$0.38	-18.03%	-69.33%	$66.58	20
Mon	Sep . 12		5	$0.14	-62.80%	-70.19%	$66.72	21	$0.52	-82.01%
Tue	Sep . 13		5	$0.15	7.53%	-67.74%	$66.87	22
Wed	Sep . 14		9	$0.05	-67.02%	-88.63%	$66.92	23
Thu	Sep . 15		12	$0.06	12.70%	-86.23%	$66.97	24
Fri	Sep . 16		13	$0.06	8.80%	-77.53%	$67.03	25
Sat	Sep . 17		12	$0.04	-30.24%	-90.75%	$67.08	26
Sun	Sep . 18		13	$0.02	-53.92%	-94.80%	$67.10	27
Mon	Sep . 19		14	$0.01	-33.08%	-90.65%	$67.11	28	$0.05	-91.31%
Tue	Sep . 20		14	$0.01	0.34%	-91.27%	$67.12	29
Wed	Sep . 21		14	$0.01	-25.54%	-80.29%	$67.13	30
Thu	Sep . 22		15	$0.01	-6.92%	-83.72%	$67.14	31
				ExRate: $1=￥6.6407			Total Gross = $67.14M

[chrisman0606]

Looking at Entgroup daily gross for September 23 it the grosses for that day is low with no film over $2 million USD, it seems like it is going to be a shitty weekend at the box office before the national holiday next weekend. http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/?date=09 /23 /2016

[POTUS 2020]

12 hours ago, chrisman0606 said:

Looking at Entgroup daily gross for September 23 it the grosses for that day is low with no film over $2 million USD, it seems like it is going to be a shitty weekend at the box office before the national holiday next weekend. http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/?date=09 /23 /2016

It's got to be the lowest Friday of the year at ¥52m.

Storks only made ¥4.8m

STB 1.8m/ 427m 

Feels like the novelty of going to the movies has waned coupled with it hitting the BO/GDP ratio ceiling. Just as it did at the end of 1930s in domestic when it experienced the biggest ticket sales per capita after talkies came out. March 1 to date is down from last year.

[Olive]

Saturday numbers:
A Chinese Odyssey: Part 3 - ￥18.05M/￥324M

SoulMate -￥16.25M/￥128M

Storks - ￥15.4M/￥20.25M
Z Storm 2 - ￥13.8M/￥176M
Star Trek Beyond - ￥3.9M/￥431M
Nine Lives - ￥2.93M/￥105M
The Shallows  ¥1.8M/ ¥97M

[Newbie]

On 9/20/2016 at 11:51 PM, No Prisoners said:

Tuesday numbers:

A Chinese Odyssey: Part 3 - ￥11.5M/￥276M
Z Storm 2 - ￥8.6M/￥138M
Star Trek Beyond - ￥1.9M/￥421M
Nine Lives - ￥1.5M/￥98M

The Shallows  ¥1.1M/ ¥92M
Ice Age: Collision Course - ￥.2M/￥444M

Bourne 5   ¥.1/¥447M

 

JB5 and IA5 will close on Thursday with JB edging out IA in gross. IA5 has edged out Minions(¥436m) from last Sept. 

 

ST3 has 1 more week. It will have close to just 2% of shows and will crawl close to ¥440M just short of JB and IA.

 

Just curious when is the last day for ST3?

Edited September 25, 2016 by Newbie

[Gavin Feng]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

Just curious when is the last day for ST3?

Oct.2

[Polaroids]

Why are the presale numbers for the upcoming movies so low? Even really bad movies got at least 3x that months ago.

[Olive]

Weekend Box Office(Sep.23-25/2016)						(million)
Rank	Movie	Weekend￥	Wknd $	Change +/-	Total￥	Total $
1	A Chinese Odyssey: Part 3 (China)	43.80	$6.56	-64%	338.98	$50.75
2	Z Strom II (China)	38.42	$5.75	-13%	141.44	$21.17
3	Storks (US)	34.75	$5.20	NEW	34.76	$5.20
4	Z Strom II (China)	34.29	$5.13	-48%	187.80	$28.11
5	Cock and Bull (China)	23.37	$3.50	-44%	122.49	$18.34
6	Chibi Maruko-chan (Japan)	18.97	$2.84	NEW	18.99	$2.84
7	Star Trek Beyond (US)	9.03	$1.35	-61%	433.99	$64.97
8	Nine Lives (US)	6.72	$1.01	-58%	107.76	$16.13
9	Bastille Day （France）	5.24	$0.78	NEW	11.84	$1.77
10	The Shallows (US)	4.33	$0.65	-51%	98.54	$14.75

[Olive]

National holiday golden week is not looking good.

[Lihongkim]

14 hours ago, Polaroids said:

Why are the presale numbers for the upcoming movies so low? Even really bad movies got at least 3x that months ago.

I'm wondering about this too. As always, L.O.R.D will have huge OW and then fall like a rock. But with that pre-sale, it won't even have huge OW. Can't believe it's pre-sale is lower than "I Belong to You".

[POTUS 2020]

21 hours ago, Polaroids said:

Why are the presale numbers for the upcoming movies so low? Even really bad movies got at least 3x that months ago.

 

6 hours ago, Lihongkim said:

I'm wondering about this too. As always, L.O.R.D will have huge OW and then fall like a rock. But with that pre-sale, it won't even have huge OW. Can't believe it's pre-sale is lower than "I Belong to You".

As I said in earlier posts. Could be the novelty is waning. When 3d came out Alice did 400m dom/1b WW after Avatar exploded.  70% saw it in 3d. After a couple of years the percentage dropped to 30 and 3d no longer bumps a movie that much.

The BO was $300m 12 years ago. 2b just 5 years ago. With 7b last year, that's a lot of people going for the first time and flocking to whatever titles are playing regardless of quality for additional theater experiences. As tastes matures the movie goers become more selective.

 

It happened in the 1940s in domestic. After WW2 the box office wasn't the same size and the movies they made(lots of slap stick) in the 30s no longer played well. They had to come up with better stories, different genres, more color and CinemaScope to bolster the BO. To this day there have never been so many tickets per capita sold than the 30s. Part of it was the depression but the novelty of talkies played a large part. 

Like a market bubble where people are piling into a market until it pops, the rush maybe over for the new movie going experience as theaters have finally saturated the first thru fourth tier cities. After a drop in attendance, which looks like will occur from March 1 this year thru next CNY, we'll see a flattening followed by a few percent growth per year.

In a market bubble there is usually one last big price spike and then it pops. Feb's CNY was huge. Up 66% YoY with 3 movies doing big numbers at the same time. It was an exciting month. Since then I sense a "meh" feeling in the numbers.

Edited September 27, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Polaroids]

On 9/27/2016 at 4:26 PM, No Prisoners said:

 

As I said in earlier posts. Could be the novelty is waning. When 3d came out Alice did 400m dom/1b WW after Avatar exploded.  70% saw it in 3d. After a couple of years the percentage dropped to 30 and 3d no longer bumps a movie that much.

The BO was $300m 12 years ago. 2b just 5 years ago. With 7b last year, that's a lot of people going for the first time and flocking to whatever titles are playing regardless of quality for additional theater experiences. As tastes matures the movie goers become more selective.

 

It happened in the 1940s in domestic. After WW2 the box office wasn't the same size and the movies they made(lots of slap stick) in the 30s no longer played well. They had to come up with better stories, different genres, more color and CinemaScope to bolster the BO. To this day there have never been so many tickets per capita sold than the 30s. Part of it was the depression but the novelty of talkies played a large part. 

Like a market bubble where people are piling into a market until it pops, the rush maybe over for the new movie going experience as theaters have finally saturated the first thru fourth tier cities. After a drop in attendance, which looks like will occur from March 1 this year thru next CNY, we'll see a flattening followed by a few percent growth per year.

In a market bubble there is usually one last big price spike and then it pops. Feb's CNY was huge. Up 66% YoY with 3 movies doing big numbers at the same time. It was an exciting month. Since then I sense a "meh" feeling in the numbers.

I think that in L.O.R.D.'s case, it also has something to do with the fact that mo-cap films aren't new to Chinese audiences and this first attempt from China is seen as inferior by the audience and they're already comparing it to western-made movies. I watched the movie's trailers on youtube and you'd be surprised at the number of dislikes and comments from Chinese people because they find the attempt embarrassing.

 

Even the fans of the actors in the movie are less than enthused because they're not excited to see choppy CGI-ed versions of their favorite stars. I'm not sure this movie has an audience at all. It's not appealing to both fans and the general public.

[Olive]

Thursday numbers:

I Belonged to You - ￥75.1M/￥77.5M

Legend of Ravaging Dynasties - ￥8.8M (2-hour previews)

Z Storm 2 - ￥2.8M/￥207M

A Chinese Odyssey: Part 3 - ￥2.5M/￥360M

Storks - ￥1.1M/￥43.4M

Star Trek Beyond - ￥0.8M/￥436M
 

[Olive]

Friday numbers:
I Belonged to You - ￥62M/￥138M
Legend of Ravaging Dynasties - ￥65.2M (including 8.6 previews)
Operation Mekong - ￥36M/￥37.5M
Mission Milano - ￥22.6M previews
Storks - ￥0.97M/￥44.4M
 

[Olive]

Saturday numbers:
I Belonged to You - ￥90M/￥231M
Legend of Ravaging Dynasties - ￥73.8M/141M 
Operation Mekong - ￥59.7M/￥100.2M
Mission Milano - ￥45M/67.8M
Storks - ￥6.1M/￥50.6M

[TigerPaw]

28 minutes ago, Olive said:

Saturday numbers:
I Belonged to You - ￥90M/￥231M
Legend of Ravaging Dynasties - ￥73.8M/141M 
Operation Mekong - ￥59.7M/￥100.2M
Mission Milano - ￥45M/67.8M
Storks - ￥6.1M/￥50.6M

Heard Operation Mekong is fudging... 
Warcraft did the same too..

But no1 is doing anything except than for Ip Man 3.. 

[Olive]

5 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Heard Operation Mekong is fudging... 
Warcraft did the same too..

But no1 is doing anything except than for Ip Man 3.. 

Yeah,  I bought a ticket for 19 yuan, but counted 50.