China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[UserHN]

12 minutes ago, POTUS said:

WOM China

How quickly WoM spreads in china. You just don't see Sunday bumps and -40% Monday holds in Domestic for great WoM, or 90%+ drops the following weekend for shyte WoM.

1000f had twice the PS for a week, then previews happened for both on Saturday- 6 days before OD.  PS then evened out due to bad Wom on 1000F(along with last minute change to thurs 7pm previews for 1000F softening Fridays open).  Then you can see them diverge bigtime.

 

Youth	9.1					1000f	7.6
Day	Yn	% +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Thur						27			27
Fri	76			76	12	67			94	14
Sat	107	40.6%		183	28	68	0.9%		162	25
Sun	109	2.5%		292	44	48	-29.9%		210	32
Mon	60	-45.2%		352	53	14	-70.6%		224	34
Tues	55	-8.3%		407	62	11	-21.4%		235	36
Wed	50	-9.1%		457	69	9	-18.2%		244	37
Thur	45	-10.0%		502	76	7	-20.0%		251	38
		Proj	Total	1000	152				300	45

 

 

 

 

Where do you think Coco will end up?

[POTUS 2020]

52 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Where do you think Coco will end up?

its still targeting 1.2b/$180m.  +/- 33m/$5m  depending on screens held this weekend

 

1.3B/$196m is not out of the question if it keeps a lot of screens for New Years weekend and legs hard thru the close

Edited December 18, 2017 by POTUS

[bangbingchan]

On 2017/12/15 at 12:18 PM, Gavin Feng said:

TLJ under $50M in China Club

Over/Under Rogue One？It's possible very close.$50M is too low.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

2 hours ago, POTUS said:

WOM China

How quickly WoM spreads in china. You just don't see Sunday bumps and -40% Monday holds in Domestic for great WoM, or 90%+ drops the following weekend for shyte WoM.

1000f had twice the PS for a week, then previews happened for both on Saturday- 6 days before OD.  PS then evened out due to bad Wom on 1000F(along with last minute change to thurs 7pm previews for 1000F softening Fridays open).  Then you can see them diverge bigtime.

 

Youth	9.1					1000f	7.6
Day	Yn	% +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Thur						27			27
Fri	76			76	12	67			94	14
Sat	107	40.6%		183	28	68	0.9%		162	25
Sun	109	2.5%		292	44	48	-29.9%		210	32
Mon	60	-45.2%		352	53	14	-70.6%		224	34
Tues	55	-8.3%		407	62	11	-21.4%		235	36
Wed	50	-9.1%		457	69	9	-18.2%		244	37
Thur	45	-10.0%		502	76	7	-20.0%		251	38
		Proj	Total	1000	152				300	45

 

 

 

 

Yep, Youth is going 1B+

[Brainbug]

Is there a chance that the Chinese moviegoers will enjoy The Last Jedi more than TFA/RO, since this film doesnt really rely on nostalgia? I know, its also the longest SW movie so maybe the Chinese will fall asleep before the 3rd act

[peludo]

With Youth reaching 1b, 2017 would end, if there are not more surprises, with 15 films over that mark among the 41 films that would have done it (I include Titanic in that list adding 1998 and 2012 grosses).

 

With current ER that means 15 films over $150m in a single year. The #15 in USA is right now at $175m, just $25m more. I know that this year service fees inclusion distorts any right comparison with previous years, but could we see within 2-3 years that #15 in China is already bigger than in USA or this has been conjunctural? I am seeing that although the market is not increasing as it used to to 2-3 years ago, the grosses of biggest films are considerably higher.

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Is there a chance that the Chinese moviegoers will enjoy The Last Jedi more than TFA/RO, since this film doesnt really rely on nostalgia? I know, its also the longest SW movie so maybe the Chinese will fall asleep before the 3rd act

SW7 rating was 8.2

R1 was 8.0

SW8 will need a 9 to do better than 7

[Gavin Feng]

The Liquidator is very good IMO.

[bangbingchan]

6 hours ago, POTUS said:SW7 rating was 8.2

R1 was 8.0

SW8 will need a 9 to do better than 7

Douban

TLJ 7.7 before wide release 

TFA 7.1

RO 7.3

 

MaoYan score may be similar to SW7

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Secret Superstar has just got a Jan 19th release date.

 

The Chinese distributor need the movie to pull in a huge number at CBO to break even.

 

The Dangal effect.

Edited December 19, 2017 by firedeep

[Barnack]

8 hours ago, firedeep said:

 

I know they are much cheaper but does the release that cheap that is cost is not relevant here (say if the China release is just 7m US it is still adding around 200m RMB at the CBO break even point ? Or it is not the distributor that pay the distribution cost when you just get 25% ?

Edited December 19, 2017 by Barnack

[A Marvel Fanboy]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I know they are much cheaper but does the release that cheap that is cost is not relevant here (say if the China release is just 7m US it is still adding around 200m RMB at the CBO break even point ? Or it is not the distributor that pay the distribution cost when you just get 25% ?

The distributor pays the distribution cost which ranges from RMB 2M to RMB 100m+, depending on the movie. In the case of Secret Superstar, I would guess the P&A budget (in China) falls around RMB 50m.

 

Basically every release has a different revenue-sharing model between the distributor (0%-29.5%), CFGC/Huaxia Film (1% or 1.5%+extra fees), the foreign producer(fixed lincensing fee or fixed lincensing fee+revenue sharing), the Chinese buyer (fixed lincensing fee+revenue sharing), and the minimum guarantee deal maker. You never know how much each Chinese company involved earns exactly on a breakout hit. But you can tell who loses money when a movie flops. For the foreign producer, it is easier to tell how much they earn from a release in China as the deal is often reported in the media (quote release is 25% but that is not always true, could be more complicated; buyout release, ultimately depending on how much the Chinese distributor/minimum guarantee deal maker is willing to pay for the movie)

[Olive]

Tuesday after service fees
Youth - 66.4M/451.2M (no drop from monday) 
1k Faces of Dunjia- 17.15M/260.6m  
Coco  -  7.7m/1040m  (beat DM3 today!but slowed down)
Paddington 2 - 2.45M/176M  ($30M is dead)
Loving Vincent - 1.4m/57.94m 
Darkest Hour - 0.23M/35.15m 

[Fullbuster]

Can we expect a good surprise for Jumanji? Looksl ike the kind of film that could have a breakthrough in such a market.

[Olive]

4 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Can we expect a good surprise for Jumanji? Looksl ike the kind of film that could have a breakthrough in such a market.

Yes, we love the Rock.

[Gavin Feng]

we love bald like Rock, Statham. So Thanos' Infinity War will be huge!!!

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, Olive Skywalker said:

Yes, we love the Rock.

How did Baywatch perform in China? Just curious.

[Olive]

2 minutes ago, UserHN said:

How did Baywatch perform in China? Just curious.

Didn't get released since it's R-rated comedy.

[Olive]

Wednesday after service fees
Youth - 63.4M/513.7M -3%
1k Faces of Dunjia- 15.55M/276.3m  
Coco  -  7.05m/1047.3m  
Paddington 2 - 2.36M/178.5M  
Loving Vincent - 1.28m/59.23m 
Darkest Hour - 0.23M/35.37m 

[Olive]

As of Friday, Coco has a bigger multiplier than Dangal.