China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Damn   why isn't mojo updating any chinese boxoffice since the last time I complained?  Do I need to write another complaint letter ?!

Ray is on holiday and wont be back to work until middle June.

[Olive]

Damn   why isn't mojo updating any chinese boxoffice since the last time I complained?  Do I need to write another complaint letter ?!

They have not updated any markets .

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Decent Friday here, outpacing its opening Tuesday despite screens cut from Thursday. Should do 145M $23M 6-days and $46M total, which should be enough to get the #1 OS market spot for a Trek movie.

 

4 new animated movies opened on Friday. Saturday is Children's Day and all animations get many screenings. Less screens for STID but the PSA should be higher than normal case. So hopefully a balance for STID after all.

 

Little screenings available for IM3 and other holdovers. Their runs pretty much ends.

 

Croods still a beast. Could again hit 10M+ on Saturday with around 8.5% screenings.

Edited May 31, 2013 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

New breakdown prediction for STID:

 

Week 1 (6 days) 155M

Week 2                70M

Week 3                95M

Week 4                30M

Rest                      5M

 

355M total $57M

 

Too optimistic ?

[Sam]

So STiD breaks out in China

[A Marvel Fanboy]

$45M should be the floor for STID at the moment and $57M is the ceiling I suppose.

 

So after all, STID is the third Hollywood movie this year that didnt underperform in 2011/2012 standard in China, after Croods and IM3 ....

[Sam]

firedeep, the success of IM3 in China, do you think it has anything to do with TA effect? Or more because its a co-production and has fairly good release date?I ask cause I wonder if TDW can receive a good boost in China via TA effect, if its prominent.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

firedeep, the success of IM3 in China, do you think it has anything to do with TA effect? Or more because its a co-production and has fairly good release date?I ask cause I wonder if TDW can receive a good boost in China via TA effect, if its prominent.

Both helped.

 

Thinking $50M for TDW if the movie is good. Thor did $15M here.

[Sam]

Both helped.Thinking $50M for TDW if the movie is good. Thor did $15M here.

Thanks. From 15M to 50M is a good jump. I'm hoping for more though

[Bob Violence]

I'm afraid FF6 will be another Skyfall. Piracy will kill it.

I dunno about that. Skyfall had an awards screener that leaked in December, and the retail DVD/BD leaked at pretty much the same time the Chinese release hit theaters. But awards screeners are a non-factor in the summer and FF6's retail discs won't be out until the beginning of October, which means they should hit P2P sometime in September. There will probably be some watchable cam copies by the time of the Chinese release (if there aren't already), but this is true of virtually everything that comes out in China. I don't think cam copies are a big threat to a film's theatrical take in China.Now maybe a high-quality screener could leak before July 26th, but that's hardly guaranteed given that there are still no non-cam copies of movies like Oblivion, GIJ2, and Olympus Has Fallen. There seem to be some non-cam copies of IM3 kicking around, but those are from Chinese sources--surprise, surprise. IMO the main problem with such a late date is that the free publicity from the international release will have long since dissipated, plus some people will already be burned out from earlier summer releases (foreign and domestic). Being sandwiched between White House Down and Pacific Rim won't help either.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Bob Violence

[messipotamia]

Firedeep, what's your prediction regarding MOS's numbers in china?

[Alex Bennett]

Firedeep, what's your prediction regarding MOS's numbers in china?

I think $50m is pretty much locked...$80m is possible if it meet the taste of chinese audience

[messipotamia]

I think $50m is pretty much locked...$80m is possible if it meet the taste of chinese audience

Wow! you honestly think 50 million is locked, I heard that if MOS is being released on 20/7 it will have to go up against some pretty heavy competition (including a local legend like Li Lian Je). But if that were to happen then it would be a huge jump from SR (made about 8 million) and would really help my prediction that the film could do about 270-300 million OS.

 

Just out of curiosity, what is the "taste" of the chinese people?

[Olive]

Wow! you honestly think 50 million is locked, I heard that if MOS is being released on 20/7 it will have to go up against some pretty heavy competition (including a local legend like Li Lian Je). But if that were to happen then it would be a huge jump from SR (made about 8 million) and would really help my prediction that the film could do about 270-300 million OS.

 

Just out of curiosity, what is the "taste" of the chinese people?

Transformers-like.

[messipotamia]

Transformers-like.

Otherwise Michael Bay like rubbish?? or just action extravaganza?

[Olive]

Otherwise Michael Bay like rubbish?? or just action extravaganza?

Action packed or with great VFX like Life of Pi.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

$50M for MoS should not be much a problem. However I won't predict anything significantly higher (like $80M) than that until we know how it does in other markets before opening here on 6.20.

[POLYLOVE]

6.20 is not a bad date. There won't be any hollywood blockbusters opened until end of July (FF6).

[A Marvel Fanboy]

6.20 is not a bad date. There won't be any hollywood blockbusters opened until end of July (FF6).

TT (6.28) and Badges of Fury (6.27) are much more destructive ... then Man of Tai Chi (7.5) and WHD (7.12).

[POLYLOVE]

TT (6.28) and Badges of Fury (6.27) are much more destructive ... then Man of Tai Chi (7.5) and WHD (7.12).

The relationship of TT and MOS is like IM3 and SY, different targeted audiences. BOF is said having bad WOM. Man of Tai Chi looks a flop.