Cedarpoint1111 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Mean mug Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 so, who left WHD out of their top 15? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 so, who left WHD out of their top 15? Not many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 so, who left WHD out of their top 15? I did. F**k that movie! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Not many. looks like about 10-12 people did Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattrek Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Including me. Maybe I should've stayed in the game 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Way to throw in the towel early guys. We don't even have legit Friday numbers yet, how do you know it won't make it? If it does 30m+ then it's chances are still good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinHood26 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 I predicted 178m for WHD ughhhh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Way to throw in the towel early guys. We don't even have legit Friday numbers yet, how do you know it won't make it? If it does 30m+ then it's chances are still good. Okay, here, let's see. The current top 15 includes: 1. IM3 2. F&F6 3. MOS 4. STID 5. Gatsby 6. MU 7. Hangover 8. Epic 9. NYSM Lets assume that the current top 6 are guaranteed to wind up in the top 15. NYSM should beat Hangover, and lets call that #7. WWZ, Heat, DM2, and LR should all beat Hangover, so lets call those 8, 9, 10, and 11. Candidates for the other 4 spots include: PacRim, GrownUps, Smurfs, Wolverine, Elysium, 2 Guns, and Turbo, and you never know if some thing like Red 2, RIPD, Percy Jackson, or something else will break out. You'd have to think that at least 3 of those would beat The Hangover (if not more), so right now I'd say the highest likely outcome for The Hangover would be 15th place. But if more than 3 of those films listed about break out, than Hangover would finish 16th-17th-18th. So for WHD to enter the top 15, it's going to have to beat Hangover at the very least, and will probably have to wind up in the 115-125 range, depending on what other films do. A $30M OW for WHD isn't likely to hit the top 15. $35M probably won't be enough either. It probably needs $40M to have a decent shot (and even then not guaranteed). Anyone care to disagree with my analysis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Okay, here, let's see. The current top 15 includes:1. IM32. F&F63. MOS4. STID5. Gatsby6. MU7. Hangover8. Epic9. NYSMLets assume that the current top 6 are guaranteed to wind up in the top 15.NYSM should beat Hangover, and lets call that #7.WWZ, Heat, DM2, and LR should all beat Hangover, so lets call those 8, 9, 10, and 11.Candidates for the other 4 spots include: PacRim, GrownUps, Smurfs, Wolverine, Elysium, 2 Guns, and Turbo, and you never know if some thing like Red 2, RIPD, Percy Jackson, or something else will break out.You'd have to think that at least 3 of those would beat The Hangover (if not more), so right now I'd say the highest likely outcome for The Hangover would be 15th place. But if more than 3 of those films listed about break out, than Hangover would finish 16th-17th-18th.So for WHD to enter the top 15, it's going to have to beat Hangover at the very least, and will probably have to wind up in the 115-125 range, depending on what other films do.A $30M OW for WHD isn't likely to hit the top 15. $35M probably won't be enough either. It probably needs $40M to have a decent shot (and even then not guaranteed).Anyone care to disagree with my analysis?One problem you haven't thought of: those last few films you mention are all mostly August releases and our last tracking week is Labor Day weekend. They will only have a few weeks to try to make our list. Not every film in the top 15 will make over 100m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 One problem you haven't thought of: those last few films you mention are all mostly August releases and our last tracking week is Labor Day weekend. They will only have a few weeks to try to make our list. Not every film in the top 15 will make over 100m. Count again. I listed 6 from July and 4 from August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 I said last few, don't nitpick lol... My point still stands. Look at last year, dark shadows was number 15 and it didn't even make 80m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 I said last few, don't nitpick lol... My point still stands. Look at last year, dark shadows was number 15 and it didn't even make 80m. Sorry, but your point is wrong. Epic is already over 100. For the #15 film to show up under 100, 9 of the following 10 movies would have to be under 100: Candidates for the other 4 spots include: PacRim, GrownUps, Smurfs, Wolverine, Elysium, 2 Guns, and Turbo, and you never know if some thing like Red 2, RIPD, Percy Jackson, or something else will break out. I can see a lot of those going under 100, but you really think 9 of the 10 will? I'm throwing numbers and lists around, so let me try to simplify: 8 films are already over 100. NYSM and WWZ are locked to be 9 and 10. Unless The Heat plummets from where it currently is, it will be #11. DM2 is 12. Lone Ranger should be 13. It only takes 2 more from that list of ten movies (plus unknown surprises) to make sure every film in the top 15 is over 100. Most might fail, but at least a couple have to do well, movie theaters won't suddenly turn into ghost towns. Heck, at this point the OW for WHD is not locked in stone. It could still go over 100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 I win,. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Sorry, but your point is wrong. Epic is already over 100. For the #15 film to show up under 100, 9 of the following 10 movies would have to be under 100:I can see a lot of those going under 100, but you really think 9 of the 10 will?I'm throwing numbers and lists around, so let me try to simplify:8 films are already over 100. NYSM and WWZ are locked to be 9 and 10.Unless The Heat plummets from where it currently is, it will be #11. DM2 is 12. Lone Ranger should be 13.It only takes 2 more from that list of ten movies (plus unknown surprises) to make sure every film in the top 15 is over 100. Most might fail, but at least a couple have to do well, movie theaters won't suddenly turn into ghost towns.Heck, at this point the OW for WHD is not locked in stone. It could still go over 100.That's a lot of could's and if's and you're right and so am I. My point from the first post was dont count out White House down because even if it just makes 30-35m ow, it can still make it to top 15 with around 100m more or less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 NYSM is going to finish top 15, maybe even top 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 NYSM will beat WHD for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 NYSM is going to finish top 15, maybe even top 10. There's a chance that Smurfs, GrownUps, Wolverine, and one other film all finish over 130. If you ask me right now, I think NYSM will indeed finish in the top 15. But it's definitely not a lock just yet. Some of the films between July 4 and September 4 are bound to pull in the audience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 F**k the Heat and F**K WHD.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Only chD got Question 1 right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...