kitik Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 I could end up regretting it, but I played the odds on SOTM12. I'm fairly confident Butler will still be over $25m with actuals, and that's a figure I just don't think 1D3D is hitting in 3 days. I'm not ruling it out, of course, given that Hannah and Bieber did more. I chose to abstain on the OW part because of the 5-day opening for Mortal Instruments. I don't think it will be big, but there's definitely a chance it could hit 25 over 5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 I could end up regretting it, but I played the odds on SOTM12. I'm fairly confident Butler will still be over $25m with actuals, and that's a figure I just don't think 1D3D is hitting in 3 days. I'm not ruling it out, of course, given that Hannah and Bieber did more. But... I just really feel like those two stars were even more popular during the time of their releases. They also released in more wide open markets. The holiday opening for 1D3D makes sense too, but at the end of a very busy summer I'm just not sensing the kind of $30m-ish demand seen by the bigger concert pics. Not to mention that Katy Perry's and Jonas Brothers' movies didn't get anywhere near those numbers. Even Michael Jackson's barely eclipsed $25m and he was.... Michael friggin Jackson. But it doesn't need to hit 30. It just needs, oh, 25.5 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted August 19, 2013 Founder / Operator Share Posted August 19, 2013 But it doesn't need to hit 30. It just needs, oh, 25.5 or so. But that's still double Perry and Jonas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted August 19, 2013 Founder / Operator Share Posted August 19, 2013 (edited) I chose to abstain on the OW part because of the 5-day opening for Mortal Instruments. I don't think it will be big, but there's definitely a chance it could hit 25 over 5 days. Me either. I took a calculated risk with TMI too. It smells like a huge flop to me. Percy Jackson barely hit $25m and it was a sequel to an "established" franchise. I think young audiences are burnt out right now--not just on teeny movies, but after spending so much money this summer in general. Edited August 19, 2013 by ShawnMR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted August 19, 2013 Founder / Operator Share Posted August 19, 2013 Id love to read your thoughts on it Shawn. Will definitely try and write up a few thoughts in RTM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted August 19, 2013 Founder / Operator Share Posted August 19, 2013 Well, glad to see Wolvy was underestimated this weekend. I need it to hit $128.44m by end of game. Gonna be a nailbiter. If it follows Captain America's legs between now and Sept. 2, Wolverine will hit $129.796m. With First Class legs, $129.069m. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Need Wolvie to gross 127.49M for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 We all should form a praying circle for Wolvie's BO until Sept 2 then 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 I will pray wolverine loses 1500 theaters next week. Abstained ftw.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 I just need Wolverine to reach between 126-138. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Regarding preseason 15A: Wolverine is at 35.1M after a 1.37M weekend and needs 4.4M in two weeks, that isn't going to happen so no is the correct answer. Only Baumer, Schumacher and myself answered this right then, which means that we gain 40,000 points on almost everyone, and 20,000 on a couple who abstained. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Regarding preseason 15A: Wolverine is at 35.1M after a 1.37M weekend and needs 4.4M in two weeks, that isn't going to happen so no is the correct answer. Only Baumer, Schumacher and myself answered this right then, which means that we gain 40,000 points on almost everyone, and 20,000 on a couple who abstained. BOOOOO! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 I answered 135.6 for Wolverine, so I need it to hit $129,142,858 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Well, glad to see Wolvy was underestimated this weekend. I need it to hit $128.44m by end of game. Gonna be a nailbiter. If it follows Captain America's legs between now and Sept. 2, Wolverine will hit $129.796m. With First Class legs, $129.069m. Okay, I'm confused a little here. You guessed 135.2 for Wolvie. So don't you need it to hit 128.761905 to be within 5% of the actual? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted August 19, 2013 Founder / Operator Share Posted August 19, 2013 (edited) Okay, I'm confused a little here. You guessed 135.2 for Wolvie. So don't you need it to hit 128.761905 to be within 5% of the actual? 95% of $135.2m is $128.44m. How are you getting 128.761905? Edited August 19, 2013 by ShawnMR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 95% of $135.2m is $128.44m. Correct, but remember that 5% of 128 is a smaller number than 5% of 135. If it finishes with exactly 128,440,000, then to be within 5% would be a limit of 134,862,000. How are you getting 128.761905? 135.2 divided by 1.05 The difference obviously is whether you take the 5% from our guesses or the actual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted August 19, 2013 Founder / Operator Share Posted August 19, 2013 (edited) Correct, but remember that 5% of 128 is a smaller number than 5% of 135. If it finishes with exactly 128,440,000, then to be within 5% would be a limit of 134,862,000. 135.2 divided by 1.05 The difference obviously is whether you take the 5% from our guesses or the actual. EDIT: The way he phrased the question can mean 5% within the predictions, not actuals. So for my $135.2m prediction to be within 5% of the actual, it needs $128.44m (135.2 * .95 = 128.44). Edited August 19, 2013 by ShawnMR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 But remember that his question states 5% within the actual, not our predictions. correct, which means that you have to take the 5% from the hypothetical 128.44, not from our guesses of 135.2 and 135.6 So to determine the limit we'd need, you can't multiply the guess by .95, you have to divide by 1.05, since that would tell you whether you'd be within 5% of the smaller number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 (edited) The way he phrased the question means 5% within the actual, not our predictions. Kitik is right, Shawn. And like you said, the question require within 5% of actuals; that means our predictions need to be within 95-105% range in relation to actuals. For example, with Wolvie, your prediction has to be 105% of whatever actual it is. So 105% = 135.2 (your prediction) 100% = Actuals Cross multiply, you get 128.76 Edited August 19, 2013 by Sam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted August 19, 2013 Founder / Operator Share Posted August 19, 2013 correct, which means that you have to take the 5% from the hypothetical 128.44, not from our guesses of 135.2 and 135.6 So to determine the limit we'd need, you can't multiply the guess by .95, you have to divide by 1.05, since that would tell you whether you'd be within 5% of the smaller number. I accidentally reversed those in my original post. The way the question is phrased may leave this open for interpretation. The reason I'm using .95 is because that's how we've always done it in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
