BSG KITIK WINS!!

[Cedarpoint1111]

Mean mug

[kitik]

so, who left WHD out of their top 15?

[baumer]

so, who left WHD out of their top 15?

 

Not many.

[The Stingray]

so, who left WHD out of their top 15?

I did. F**k that movie!

[kitik]

Not many.

 

 

looks like about 10-12 people did

[Mattrek]

Including me. Maybe I should've stayed in the game

[Cedarpoint1111]

Way to throw in the towel early guys. We don't even have legit Friday numbers yet, how do you know it won't make it? If it does 30m+ then it's chances are still good.

[RobinHood26]

I predicted 178m for WHD ughhhh

[kitik]

Way to throw in the towel early guys. We don't even have legit Friday numbers yet, how do you know it won't make it? If it does 30m+ then it's chances are still good.

 

 

Okay, here, let's see. The current top 15 includes:

1. IM3

2. F&F6

3. MOS

4. STID

5. Gatsby

6. MU

7. Hangover

8. Epic

9. NYSM

 

Lets assume that the current top 6 are guaranteed to wind up in the top 15.

NYSM should beat Hangover, and lets call that #7.

WWZ, Heat, DM2, and LR should all beat Hangover, so lets call those 8, 9, 10, and 11.

 

Candidates for the other 4 spots include: PacRim, GrownUps, Smurfs, Wolverine, Elysium, 2 Guns, and Turbo, and you never know if some thing like Red 2, RIPD, Percy Jackson, or something else will break out.

 

You'd have to think that at least 3 of those would beat The Hangover (if not more), so right now I'd say the highest likely outcome for The Hangover would be 15th place. But if more than 3 of those films listed about break out, than Hangover would finish 16th-17th-18th.

 

So for WHD to enter the top 15, it's going to have to beat Hangover at the very least, and will probably have to wind up in the 115-125 range, depending on what other films do.

 

A $30M OW for WHD isn't likely to hit the top 15. $35M probably won't be enough either. It probably needs $40M to have a decent shot (and even then not guaranteed).

 

 

 

Anyone care to disagree with my analysis?

[Cedarpoint1111]

Okay, here, let's see. The current top 15 includes:1. IM32. F&F63. MOS4. STID5. Gatsby6. MU7. Hangover8. Epic9. NYSMLets assume that the current top 6 are guaranteed to wind up in the top 15.NYSM should beat Hangover, and lets call that #7.WWZ, Heat, DM2, and LR should all beat Hangover, so lets call those 8, 9, 10, and 11.Candidates for the other 4 spots include: PacRim, GrownUps, Smurfs, Wolverine, Elysium, 2 Guns, and Turbo, and you never know if some thing like Red 2, RIPD, Percy Jackson, or something else will break out.You'd have to think that at least 3 of those would beat The Hangover (if not more), so right now I'd say the highest likely outcome for The Hangover would be 15th place. But if more than 3 of those films listed about break out, than Hangover would finish 16th-17th-18th.So for WHD to enter the top 15, it's going to have to beat Hangover at the very least, and will probably have to wind up in the 115-125 range, depending on what other films do.A $30M OW for WHD isn't likely to hit the top 15. $35M probably won't be enough either. It probably needs $40M to have a decent shot (and even then not guaranteed).Anyone care to disagree with my analysis?

One problem you haven't thought of: those last few films you mention are all mostly August releases and our last tracking week is Labor Day weekend. They will only have a few weeks to try to make our list. Not every film in the top 15 will make over 100m.

[kitik]

One problem you haven't thought of: those last few films you mention are all mostly August releases and our last tracking week is Labor Day weekend. They will only have a few weeks to try to make our list. Not every film in the top 15 will make over 100m.

 

Count again. I listed 6 from July and 4 from August.

[Cedarpoint1111]

I said last few, don't nitpick lol... My point still stands. Look at last year, dark shadows was number 15 and it didn't even make 80m.

[kitik]

I said last few, don't nitpick lol... My point still stands. Look at last year, dark shadows was number 15 and it didn't even make 80m.

 

 

Sorry, but your point is wrong. Epic is already over 100. For the #15 film to show up under 100, 9 of the following 10 movies would have to be under 100:

 

Candidates for the other 4 spots include: PacRim, GrownUps, Smurfs, Wolverine, Elysium, 2 Guns, and Turbo, and you never know if some thing like Red 2, RIPD, Percy Jackson, or something else will break out.

 

I can see a lot of those going under 100, but you really think 9 of the 10 will?

 

 

 

I'm throwing numbers and lists around, so let me try to simplify:

8 films are already over 100. NYSM and WWZ are locked to be 9 and 10.

Unless The Heat plummets from where it currently is, it will be #11. DM2 is 12. Lone Ranger should be 13.

 

It only takes 2 more from that list of ten movies (plus unknown surprises) to make sure every film in the top 15 is over 100. Most might fail, but at least a couple have to do well, movie theaters won't suddenly turn into ghost towns.

 

Heck, at this point the OW for WHD is not locked in stone. It could still go over 100.

[#ED]

I win,.

[Cedarpoint1111]

Sorry, but your point is wrong. Epic is already over 100. For the #15 film to show up under 100, 9 of the following 10 movies would have to be under 100:I can see a lot of those going under 100, but you really think 9 of the 10 will?I'm throwing numbers and lists around, so let me try to simplify:8 films are already over 100. NYSM and WWZ are locked to be 9 and 10.Unless The Heat plummets from where it currently is, it will be #11. DM2 is 12. Lone Ranger should be 13.It only takes 2 more from that list of ten movies (plus unknown surprises) to make sure every film in the top 15 is over 100. Most might fail, but at least a couple have to do well, movie theaters won't suddenly turn into ghost towns.Heck, at this point the OW for WHD is not locked in stone. It could still go over 100.

That's a lot of could's and if's and you're right and so am I. My point from the first post was dont count out White House down because even if it just makes 30-35m ow, it can still make it to top 15 with around 100m more or less.

[baumer]

NYSM is going to finish top 15, maybe even top 10.

[#ED]

NYSM will beat WHD for sure.

[kitik]

NYSM is going to finish top 15, maybe even top 10.

 

 

There's a chance that Smurfs, GrownUps, Wolverine, and one other film all finish over 130.

 

If you ask me right now, I think NYSM will indeed finish in the top 15. But it's definitely not a lock just yet. Some of the films between July 4 and September 4 are bound to pull in the audience.

[Olive]

F**k the Heat and F**K WHD..  

[Olive]

Only chD got Question 1 right.