BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[IndustriousAngel]

final weekend trend ... Everything going down

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total	drop	week
1	Pitch Perfect 2	215.724	600	360	758.541	-45	2
2	Mad Max 4	142.644	665	215	453.073	-38	2
3	Ostwind 2	129.652	610	213	463.531	-55	2
4	Tomorrowland	106.994	406	264	106.994	-	1
5	Avengers 2	86.334	417	207	2.196.157	-54	5
6	Abschussfahrt	75.167	302	249	91.898	-	1
7	The Longest Ride	48.649	536	91	528.329	-43	4
8	Fast & Furious 7	34.226	363	94	4.105.859	-51	8
9	Tinkerbell / Neverbeast	28.663	491	58	391.361	-61	4
10	The Babadook	21.620	157	138	113.346	-33	3
11	Paul Blart Mall Cop 2	21.505	365	59	684.178	-61	7
12	A Little Chaos	18.527	170	109	126.324	-17	4
13	Shaun the Sheep	13.079	483	27	1.679.733	-62	10
14	Der Nanny	12.529	253	50	1.609.653	-58	9
15	Ex Machina	9.743	139	70	156.398	-45	5
16	Dancing Arabs	8.701	40	218	9.777	-	1
17	Fünf Freunde 4	7.976	125	64	995.511	-29	17
18	Home	7.702	296	26	660.594	-62	9
19	Run All Night	7.085	150	47	287.348	-51	6
20	Honig im Kopf	6.736	238	28	6.855.233	-41	22

 

As to last weekend's openers, Tomorrowland is bordering flop territory and Abschussfahrt did maybe a little less than expected. Among holdovers, Mad Max 4 had a really great hold, and with its strong weekdays it's already a success. Avengers 2 opened much higher than the first one and had a fine 2nd weekend, too, but it's now dropping hard and won't surpass the first one by much (2,25mil are the number to beat). Ostwind 2 dropped hard - expected from a teen franchise - but the 2nd weekend is still about as high as the first one's opening weekend, so a really fine number!

Farewell to Honig im Kopf, probably the last time we see it in the Top20 list … what a run, and it's still going on - now that the open air season is starting, it's locked for 7mil admissions upon first release!

 

Next weekend:

San Andreas gets the widest opening with more than 500 theaters, but there's little buzz. However, disaster movies always seem favourites with the walk-in crowd, so 250-300k admissions and a weekend win should be doable. Poltergeist is hard to estimate, with more than 300 theaters it goes a lot wider than Babadook but the original is mostly unknown to today's horror crows. And opening on a limited scale is Favreau's Chef - the one that I'm most interested in this weekend. With a little over 100 theaters, it should land safely inside the Top10 but won't make the Top5.

[IndustriousAngel]

whew, San Andreas is in serious trouble, 200k are out of reach, 150 seem like a stretch atm ... nr 1 for the weekend is not as easy as it seemed, PP2 still strong and MM4 with a fine drop again (nearly the only release with a good hold btw) ... overall a very poor weekend if there happen no miracles on Sat-Sun.

(Tomorrowland is dropping hard, too - considering the budget, this is a straightout flop)

Edited May 28, 2015 by IndustriousAngel

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Why SA is flopping there? It's something related to the weather?

[IndustriousAngel]

I'd not call it a flop yet (it's doing better than Tomorrowland, at least) but a big disaster movie should be able to generate more business. Sure, overall the weekend will be very slow, but fighting for #1 with PP2 and MM4 (each in their 3rd weekend) is far from a success. I had the impression marketing was very reluctant, so maybe WB didn't expect much anyway.

[IndustriousAngel]

First trend is online at insidekino.de:

#1: PP2 - 175k (-20%, seems strong on weekends)

#2: SA - 175k (ok not as bad as I feared)

#3: Ostwind2 - 125k (-5% ?? don't know if that's correct)

#4: MM4 - 115k (-20%)

#5: Poltergeist - 110k (actually an ok number)

[IndustriousAngel]

Final weekend trend - looks as if SA will win the weekend after all; teen movies with the best drops

#1: SA - 175k

#2: PP2 - 150k (-30%)

#3: Poltergeist - 125k (really good opening I'd say, better than expected)

#4: Ostwind2 - 100k (-25%)

#5: MM4 - 85k (-40%)

#6: Tomorrowland - 65k (-40%)

#7: Abschussfahrt - 55k (-25%)

[Rthmessiah]

Weekend so far PP2 in admits 81% of SA (#1),but 65% in EU and coming in 3rd (POLT #2,bjt behind SA PP2 in admits)

[IndustriousAngel]

sorry mis-post

Edited June 2, 2015 by IndustriousAngel

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total	drop	week
1	San Andreas	179.218	531	338	190.071	-	1
2	Pitch Perfect 2	149.603	634	236	1.051.664	-31	3
3	Poltergeist	125.429	322	390	125.429	-	1
4	Ostwind	118.524	700	169	710.462	-9	3
5	Mad Max 4	87.394	662	132	617.213	-39	3
6	Tomorrowland	63.335	410	154	234.450	-41	2
7	Abschussfahrt	56.730	305	186	200.703	-25	2
8	Avengers 2	49.899	365	137	2.297.485	-42	6
9	Tinkerbell / Neverbeast	30.495	491	62	456.750	+6	5
10	The Longest Ride	27.489	432	64	586.513	-43	5
11	Chef	22.951	126	182	43.298	-	1
12	Paul Blart Mall Cop 2	21.507	311	69	729.306	+0	8
13	Fast & Furious 7	15.995	265	60	4.138.487	-53	9
14	A Little Chaos	14.931	195	77	155.185	-19	5
15	Shaun the Sheep	12.729	425	30	1.709.844	-3	11
16	Home	9.569	263	36	680.193	+24	10
17	Fünf Freunde 4	9.230	104	89	1.013.682	+16	18
18	The Babadook	8.425	167	50	129.846	-61	4
19	Dancing Arabs	7.816	46	170	23.795	-10	2
20	Honig im Kopf	5.726	195	29	6.867.995	-15	23

Openers:

San Andreas - below 200k is a bit disappointing for a big disaster movie. Poltergeist otoh was a nice surprise (in Austria, it was even #1 for the weekend!). And I'm disappointed with Chef's PTA, with good reviews and starpower this should have made double of what it did in the end.

Holdovers:

First an apology - I said goodby to Honig im Kopf last week but it's still in the Top20, confidently on ist way to 7mil total! And Fünf Freunde 4 has crossed the million, very consistent franchise, wouldn't have thought it possible after the first weeks. Shaun the Sheep crossed 1,7mil and should make it to 1,8 and maybe more once holidays start. Avengers 2 has now overtaken the first Avengers, let's see if it can leg it to 2,5mil. Pitch Perfect 2 has crossed the million but 1,5 are out of reach I fear - still a success.

Next weekend:

Spy is the only opener wirth "mass" appeal, other openers include The Woman in Gold and Child 44. I don't know if the release close to PP2 will hurt or help Spy but 300k and #1 for the weekend should be possible. (Weather conditions are extremely outdoorsy if forcasts hold so don't expect anything from the weekend, we will be seeing some ugly ugly drops I fear)

[IndustriousAngel]

omg the weekend is really really awful (for theaters, that is) - first trend on insidekino.de:

 

#1: Spy - 125k (omg ... and that's the only release with more than 100k admissions)

#2: SA - 75k (-60%)

#3: PP2 - 50k (-65%)

 

As MarkG from insidekino says: This will become one of the worst weekends of all time if you don't count those with football championships.

[miketheavenger]

omg the weekend is really really awful (for theaters, that is) - first trend on insidekino.de:

 

#1: Spy - 125k (omg ... and that's the only release with more than 100k admissions)

#2: SA - 75k (-60%)

#3: PP2 - 50k (-65%)

 

As MarkG from insidekino says: This will become one of the worst weekends of all time if you don't count those with football championships.

Not surprising though considering the beautiful weather. Hopefully next weekend will pick up substantially.

[IndustriousAngel]

Yep it's no surprise buy you know, there have been sunny summer weekends before and this will be one of the abolutely least-attended ... you can't blame it on weather alone, the lineup has to be very un-tempting too to create such a perfect storm of empty seats.

[MrHardapple]

Next weekend will pick up for sure.

Dinosaurs are coming, sunshine and good weather will not stop them...

[miketheavenger]

Yep it's no surprise buy you know, there have been sunny summer weekends before and this will be one of the abolutely least-attended ... you can't blame it on weather alone, the lineup has to be very un-tempting too to create such a perfect storm of empty seats.

I know. I thought Spy would have at least a bit more appeal since Melissa McCarthy is quite popular here, at least from what I can tell, but I might be wrong.

[IndustriousAngel]

yep, as I said I thought 300k opening weekend might be possible for Spy and even with weather like this 200k should be a safe bet ... with this opening Spy won't even reach Kingsman (to take another spy comedy)

[IndustriousAngel]

2nd trend has everything a bit higher so still bad but not as horrible as feared.

[IndustriousAngel]

final weekend estimates:

#1: Spy - 150k admissions

#2: SA - 90k (-50%)

#3: PP2 - 65k (-55%)

#4: Ostwind2 - 60k (-50%)

#5: Poltergeist - 55k (-55%)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total	drop	week
1	Spy	119.537	534	224	151.354	-	1
2	San Andreas	88.696	531	167	340.336	-51	2
3	Pitch Perfect 2	67.867	621	109	1.182.687	-55	4
4	Ostwind 2	58.432	773	76	821.068	-51	4
5	Poltergeist	57.584	382	151	223.246	-54	2
6	Mad Max 4	42.952	518	83	703.534	-51	4
7	Tomorrowland	25.118	411	61	281.942	-60	3
8	Abschussfahrt	23.706	324	73	250.039	-58	3
9	Avengers 2	23.061	309	75	2.339.006	-54	7
10	The Woman in Gold	18.069	139	130	25.027	-	1
11	Child 44	13.146	204	64	37.273	-	1
12	Tinkerbell / Neverbeast	13.133	475	28	478.454	-57	6
13	The Longest Ride	10.031	352	28	609.239	-64	6
14	Paul Blart Mall Cop 2	9.146	272	34	745.775	-57	9
15	Chef	6.749	135	50	60.028	-71	2
16	A Little Chaos	5.897	210	28	169.800	-61	6
17	Shaun the Sheep	5.682	368	15	1.720.697	-55	12
18	Fast & Furious 7	5.167	174	30	4.148.888	-68	10
19	Home	4.838	223	22	688.040	-49	11
20	Honig im Kopf	3.538	184	19	6.875.746	-38	24

 

Extremely bad weekend, with Spy as the only wide opener barely making it across 100k admissions on the proper weekend (keep in mind that in Germany, the weekend includes Thursday!). On the other hand, we have Honig im Kopf still in the Top20 - I'd have to look it up but if it's not a record, it must be a near-record to make the Top20 with only 3.538 admissions (Germany has more than 80mil inhabitants, after all)

 

Next weekend:

Well, after a weekend as horrible as this one numbers can only go up, but there's a strong lineup of attractive movies too so it should rather be UUUUUP! Opening are:

Jurassic World - should win the weekend with ease (I hope for more than 500k admissions) but it remains to be seen if it can reach blockbuster status (3mil total, I'm pessimistic but if it catches on with audiences, not impossible).

Hot Pursuit - the trailer seemed to be well-received and after the lukewarm opening for Spy, maybe there's room for another female-driven action comedy. At least the opening should be a little higher than Spy's.

Ocho apellidos vascos - let's see if the spanish smash hit romcom (10mil admissions in Spain!) can do some business here, too - but with those releases, it's always about legs, not opening, so don't expect any big numbers on opening weekend, 50k would be a success.

Rico, Oskar und das Herzgebreche - the kid franchise is not as strong as the EnidBlyton-inspired ones but 100k opening and a total of more than 700k seem possible.

 

Of course, much depends on weather - atm it looks so/so - basically sunny days but thunderstorms or at least some showers in the evening so not that bad for the movies. Some kiddie releases might even increase.

[IndustriousAngel]

JW is off to a very good start, 800k admissions for the weekend seem possible after early Thu numbers