BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

first weekend trend is online at insidekino.de:

 

#1: JW - 700-900k admissions, depending on weather - very good!

#2/3: either holdover Spy or kiddy opener "Rico, Oscar ..." but in any case below 100k

 

Hot Pursuit is an outright flop, it's not even in the Top5

[IndustriousAngel]

JW's weekend will be nearer to 900k, so a very nice success! Still not sure if it can reach 3mil total but should beat AoU.

Edited June 13, 2015 by IndustriousAngel

[Rthmessiah]

Yeah should get 2 900k admits

Edited June 14, 2015 by rthandhisMinions

[IndustriousAngel]

hmmm the final weekend trend is online at insidekino and it's going down a bit (still super numbers, didn't expect that much):

 

#1: JW - 825k admissions

#2: Spy - 90k (-25%. really good hold after the soft opening)

#3: Rico ... - 60k (I was hoping for more but it's in the legs)

#4: SA - 50k (-45%)

#5/6/7: Ostwind2, PP2, Poltergeist with 40k each

only 35k and #8 for "Hot Pursuit" - wow, that's really really awful for a wide opening.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total	drop	week
1	Jurassic World	903.141	714	1.265	903.141	-	1
2	Spy	90.042	564	160	284.844	-25	2
3	San Andreas	50.769	544	93	421.851	-43	3
4	Rico, Oskar und das Herzgebreche	50.114	465	108	63.174	-	1
5	Ostwind 2	48.520	745	65	885.192	-17	5
6	Poltergeist	41.019	397	103	281.601	-29	3
7	Pitch Perfect 2	40.338	483	84	1.246.442	-41	5
8	Hot Pursuit	25.380	354	72	36.363	-	1
9	Mad Max 4	25.161	329	76	751.249	-41	5
10	The Woman in Gold	18.634	145	129	61.495	+3	2
11	Victoria	15.648	61	257	22.723	-	1
12	Abschussfahrt	12.727	245	52	270.433	-46	4
13	Avengers 2	11.535	218	53	2.358.205	-50	8
14	Tomorrowland	9.458	216	44	301.620	-62	4
15	Tinkerbell / Neverbeast	8.684	354	25	490.053	-34	7
16	Child 44	6.368	193	33	52.157	-52	2
17	Love & Mercy	5.874	47	125	16.406	-	1
18	Ocho Apellidos Vascos	5.328	55	97	10.758	-	1
19	The Longest Ride	5.070	201	25	620.100	-49	7
20	Paul Blart Mall Cop 2	4.800	185	26	752.361	-48	10

 

Heyho, Dinos and nothing much else. All other openers (with the exception of domestic thriller "Victoria") wer small to big disappointments - "Hot Pursuit"'s PTA is plain embarassing. Spanish blockbuster "Ocho Apellidos Vascos" hat a PTA below 100 too, no interest from the German audience.

 

JW's opening is better than expected; it should reach 3mil total without problem and with good WOM  it even has a good chance to catch FF7.

 

Next weekend:

It was probably a good idea from distributors to shy away from JW's 2nd weekend, there's only smaller releases on the slate: "McFarland, USA"; "Big Game", some even smaller stuff … again,  the Dinos will have the weekend mostly to themselves. Depending on weather the drop should be in the 20 - 30% range.

[picores]

Any early trend? I've heard JW could stay flat or even increase slightly...   Seems that last weekend heatwave impacted JW OW.

[Olive]

Any early trend? I've heard JW could stay flat or even increase slightly...   Seems that last weekend heatwave impacted JW OW.

Yeah, JW first trend 1 million weekend, best 2nd weekend of the year, and will be 2.225M after weekend

[el sid]

Yes, JW should have a very good hold but 1M is the best-case scenario.

Admissions for JW yesterday: 105k.

Last week (also Thursday): 145k.

So down 28%, but of course the last Thursday was the start day.

And the weather should help. I don't know exactly about the rest, but here in Bavaria it is pretty cold and not too good.

 

[miketheavenger]

Yes, JW should have a very good hold but 1M is the best-case scenario.

Admissions for JW yesterday: 105k.

Last week (also Thursday): 145k.

So down 28%, but of course the last Thursday was the start day.

And the weather should help. I don't know exactly about the rest, but here in Bavaria it is pretty cold and not too good.

I think that's the trend for most of the country this weekend.

[IndustriousAngel]

yep, looking really strong! and good rebounds for the other releases, too - some fine increases across the board!

[miketheavenger]

If the trend holds, JW should hit 4m admissions IMO.

[IndustriousAngel]

If the trend holds, JW should hit 4m admissions IMO.

yep, should be able to catch FF7 (4,2mil) and even has a good chance to overtake 50SoG (4,4mil). As long as it's not dropping it's hard to gauge

 

edit: Of course, with Ted2 opening, there's a possible competitor; Ted2 could open to 1mil admissions or even more with good weather. otoh, JW is a different beast, usually comedy and actioner can co-exist

Edited June 19, 2015 by IndustriousAngel

[miketheavenger]

yep, should be able to catch FF7 (4,2mil) and even has a good chance to overtake 50SoG (4,4mil). As long as it's not dropping it's hard to gauge

 

edit: Of course, with Ted2 opening, there's a possible competitor; Ted2 could open to 1mil admissions or even more with good weather. otoh, JW is a different beast, usually comedy and actioner can co-exist

Regardless where JW ends up, this year is miles better than last year already. And the second half of the year looks really strong, too. SPECTRE, FJG2 and Star Wars should all do at least 5m admissions, perhaps quite a bit more.

[Olive]

2nd trend

JW - 925K

Spy - 125k

[seduh]

wow, an increase!!!!

[miketheavenger]

2nd trend

JW - 925K

Spy - 125k

Well, the first trend looked too good to be true. Still a slight increase for JW.

[Rthmessiah]

Amazing  in admits Fri+9% LW , Sat +2%, in $eu +8, -1%

Edited June 21, 2015 by rthandhisMinions

[IndustriousAngel]

once more, we get proof of how much Germany's BO depends on weather ... despite not a single wide opener, overall admissions might go up by about 20% compared to last week.

 

latest estimates:

#1: JW - 875k (-5%)

#2: Spy - 125k (+40%)

#3: Rico - 100k (+100%, kid stuff really was way down last weekend)

#4: Ostwind2 - 65k (+35%)

#5: SA - 50k (flat)

 

Special mention: Victoria, a domestic real-time one-take thriller, opens to very nice 40k admissions; it just won 6 "Lolas" (among them all main categories) at the german movie awards - with the awards, an expansion should happen and hopefully an increase. Next weekend it will open in Austria, maybe I'll be able to catch it.

[IndustriousAngel]

and here they are, Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total	drop	week
1	Jurassic World	903.823	746	1.212	2.128.908	+0	2
2	Spy	120.644	597	202	436.727	+34	3
3	Rico, Oskar und das Herzgebreche	96.041	556	173	173.183	+92	2
4	Ostwind 2	72.557	719	101	969.422	+50	6
5	San Andreas	51.759	483	107	491.400	+2	4
6	Pitch Perfect 2	46.081	447	103	1.307.203	+14	6
7	Poltergeist	44.423	422	105	339.908	+8	4
8	Victoria	35.169	83	424	71.817	+125	2
9	The Woman in Gold	33.955	190	179	110.180	+82	3
10	Mad Max 4	26.081	308	85	791.003	+4	6
11	Hot Pursuit	21.859	361	61	68.341	-14	2
12	Big Game	21.093	170	124	46.399	-	1
13	Tinkerbell / Neverbeast	18.976	272	70	510.691	+119	8
14	Abschussfahrt	18.078	254	71	292.587	+42	5
15	Die Lügen der Sieger	12.889	66	195	18.188	-	1
16	Avengers 2	12.367	170	73	2.374.935	+7	9
17	Tomorrowland	10.116	150	67	315.736	+7	5
18	Paul Blart Mall Cop 2	9.209	168	55	762.510	+92	11
19	Shaun the Sheep	9.003	249	36	1.736.105	+126	14
20	Chef	8.471	154	55	81.613	+77	4

 

Wow, that went well. In the whole top 20, there's only one movie that managed to drop from last weekend - Hot Pursuit. The openers otoh were unremarkable.

 

Next weekend:

With Ted 2 opening and JW probably in for another strong weekend, it's difficult to predict #1 - both should be somewhere near the 700k admissions range. I guess Spy will get hit hardest by Ted2; family stuff should stay fairly stable. Victoria should see a further expansion, fine PTA there. What we can predict is that it will be another very strong weekend overall (weather doesn't look too summery).

[IndustriousAngel]

#1 still not sure - opener Ted2 is taking the lead on Thursday but not by that much, so JW might well win its 3rd weekend.