Jump to content

Juby

Free Account+
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,380

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Juby

    AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    4 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

    Your rest will be hard to happen. Dom need to be at least 10M higher.

     

    Even BoxOfficeGuru had it now at $845M domestic finish (and still dropping, a week ago it was $850M, two weeks ago $875-900M).

     

    Following its three-week reign atop the charts, Avengers: Endgame fell down to second place and grossed an estimated $29.4M in its fourth round declining by 54%. Disney's astonishing cume rose to $770.8M as Iron Man, Black Widow, and gang sped past Avatar's $760.5M on Saturday to become the second biggest domestic blockbuster of all-time behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The North American total looks on course to end in the friendly $845M neighborhood.

     

    Final China number will be more like $629-630 mln, not $627 mln. So, the movie needs at least $1.313B from the rest of the markets if domestic will stop at $845M. W shall see. . .

    AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Juby

    9 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

    It truly isn't. And the reason is quite simple: 

     

    IW this point forward made roughly more $105m domestically. It will become the highest grossing film of all time before that. Disney will obviously promote that, let alone the social media cycle. And we are not even talking how much it's obvious that Far From Home will play as the end of Phase 4. This film will end up with better legs than IW this point forward because of this reason. 

     

    748+105 = $853m it won't stop there.

     

    I don't think it's topping Avatar before July tho.

     

    You are comparing Endgame to a wrong movie who had much smaller competition after Memorial Day weekend and smaller drops before that. SEE MY POST HERE!

     

    1 hour ago, danhtruong5 said:

    Can it leg to 840? 

     

    Yes, click to my "see my post here" above, it might finish with $842M domestic.

     

     

    If China current target is $626M, the rest of the OS markets needs to be over $1.320B to beat Avatar.

     

     

    AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Juby

    1 hour ago, infamous5445 said:

    How much did Avatar make on its first run anyway?

     

    $2,754,484,243 according to Mojo. But before the Special Edition realease, it was:

     

    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic:  $749,766,139    27.4%
    + Foreign:  $1,990,639,582    72.6%
    = Worldwide:  $2,740,405,721  

     

     

    As I wrote in the other topic, Endgame is heading to max. $842M domestic. Assuming it will end up with $636M from China, Avengers will have to have at least $1.310B from the rest of the world to beat Avatar. Is it still possible?

     

    • Like 1
    • Disbelief 1

    Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    What another +50% drop means for Endgame.

     

    The film will have around $770.5M after this weekend (phenomenal result, my prediction in early April was $740M max.). It has worse legs than Infinity War, so I think it's pointless to compare these two. I campare Endgame with Iron Man 3. IM3 had its third weekend also on May 17-19th. The film had better drop (-50.7%) and better weekend than Endgame will have (over $35M to around $29M) despite bigger competition (+$70M, PG-13 opener - Star Trek Into Darkness). I know the next weekend there are holidays in U.S. (Memorial Day), but it doesn't change a thing. Alladin, Godzilla and X-Men will cruch Avengers legs even harder. IM3 add $71.3M after its 3rd weekend (17-19.05.13) and I think this is the maximum how much Endgame can add to its domestic gross after this weekend, even with Spider-Man boost in early July. This means, $842 million is where Endgame is heading. . . or less.

     

    Endgame will have one of the worst legs among MCU titles, next to Civil War and Iron Man 3.

     

     

    • Thanks 1

    Tuesday Numbers - 05/14/19 | A:EG - 5.7, DP - 5.4

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Juby

    1 hour ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

    Oh stop this shit people 850M is given at this point. Applying this Tuesday to the run of AoU, Civil War, Guardians 2 and Infinity War gives us 870M, 835M, 865M and 855M respectively. IT. IS. STABILIZING. And there's a FFH boost at the end.

     

    tenor.gif?itemid=3562867

     

    Where the hell your're seeing "stabilizing"? Maybe next week it'll start. And it's not sure there'll be any boost thanks to Spider-Man premiere.

     

    Tuesday Numbers - 05/14/19 | A:EG - 5.7, DP - 5.4

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Runtime has nothing to do with legs. Titanic was 194-minutes long film and it had the most incredible legs in history. Avatar also was very long film with big opening and great legs (it was 162 minutes, I believe).  If someone really want to see a film once more in cinema, he/she will, no matte how log it is. Endgame has worse legs, just because everyone who want to see the film, saw it in the very first week.

     

    23 minutes ago, HeadShot said:

    Yikes... this isn't even gonna reach 850 at this point.

     

    It still has a good chance, even to be close to $860M. Lets see how it will drop in the next two weekends.

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1

    AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    3 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

    2.788 - 2.623 = 165 million away from Avatar record by Sunday if your estimates are accurate. 

    Domestic weekend has a holiday next weekend, which will soften the drop quite a bit. 

    Last year IW dropped 24% over the 4 day holiday against the 103 million opener (Solo). 
    100 million or so additional on the domestic total (approx 875 total) seems reasonable. 

    China extension is still questionable, though if it's still making 8 million this weekend, I'd imagine Disney will ensure it will get one. 

    Maoyan has Endgame showings listed right up until next Thursday, May 23rd, so even without an extension it would top out around 629-630 in China. With extension, 640-645 total.

    OS-China continues with the strong weekdays as well. 

     

    165 million after Sunday seems achievable. 

     

     

    No chance at this point. $860M is max. domestic at this moment (I think it will finish in $848-852M range). China also won't get as high as $640-645 mln, it would be like $10 mln less. Endgame needs at least $1.295B from the rest of the markets to beat Avatar and I think it will manage to cross $1.3B.

    Monday numbers - 05/13/19 | Actuals: A: EG 4.70, PDP 3.69

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Endgame now has $723.75 mln domestic. Before the next weekend it could have around $743M. If the next weekend drop wouldn't be so harsh like so far, it might add another $35M = $778M by the next Sunday.

     

    Now look at Iron Man 3 numbers. It also had over $35 million weekend before the Memorial Day weekend (it was May 17-19th, like this year) and after May 19th Iron Man add another $71,34M to its domestic gross with also very strong competition in the next few weeks. I think we have very similar situation here.

     

    With similar pattern, Endgame should finish its run with $849-850 mln. Of course it might have much better "late legs" due to Spider-Man release in July, that's why for now, I would say $840-859 mln is the target for the film.

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept