Cmasterclay

Right, which is why the original Conjuring, an R-rated movie with terrific reviews and an adult skewing audience for a horror movie, was a massive bomb.

What's the lowest midnight to opening day IM for a movie? Because Warcraft might seriously challenge it, in my opinion. I really think that number might mean it struggles to hit 20 this weekend. Not quite sure on that, of course, but I just cannot fathom with these reviews, trailers, competition, and buzz anyone but the game diehards turning out, and so finishing that low at midnight is disconcerting.

I'm gonna be real honest- I feel zero buzz for Independence Day. No one seems to be talking about this movie, and the empirical metrics ain't great either. It'll still move numbers, but yea. Pretty pessimistic. Next weekend will have the biggest movie and the biggest breakout of the summer, though.

Think Like a Man Too is actually a pretty good comp for NYSM2, disparate as they seem. Moderately received summer sequel to a well-liked and leggy hit that people weren't dying to see again. This had a similar release date and nearly identical previews, too. That did 29 mill, for reference.

Not to restart an argument from last week (thought TMNT DID finish a few million over initial projections post previews), but from having family in schools in Florida, I can say for us that today is the last day of school, and IIRC it's the same for North Carolina too. I kinda assume it is the same throughout the South, and since the schools start after LD in the Northeast, I figure they get out even later. Point is, even if it is not a significant number, there is still a decent amount of high schoolers studying for exams/end of school partying, and that's big for a horror movie's previews. The last Conjuring was smack in the middle of July, so that wasn't even a minor issue then.

Part of being a good executive in business is knowing how to quit when you're ahead. You're supposed to be able to read the tea leaves and weigh cost/benefit analysis. So if I'm greenlighting a movie that is significantly more expensive and seems liable to do alot less money, then I am a bad executive. So no, I would not at all greenlight NYSM2, Alice 2, Neighbors 2, or any other sequel that seems very likely to cost alot more and do alot less at the box office. That's kind of the whole point of the decision making process. Would have greenlit TMNT2 for sure though- and they'll make a profit off of merch/auxillary streams with kids too.

John Wick is one movie I actually really WANT a sequel for, tbh. They did some really cool worldbuilding there, and also, it'll be fun as fuck.

As much as people talk about Independence Day as "destruction porn,' if you go back and watch the original (as I do every 4th of July without fail, no shame), it really isn't just mindless shit blowing up in epic fashion. The first act is built in the way of a slow-burn sci fi chiller, which gives way to the iconic pop imagery of the spaceships over the monuments. But there isn't some epic CGI destruction fest- it takes iconic, easily identifiable shots and turns them into a horror show using clear, concise purpose. That's what doesn't excite me about the new trailers- sure, lots of shit seems to be blowing up, and the scale is bigger. But there's no imagery that really stands out. It's just a bunch of buildings falling over, not the iconic hovering over the monuments motiff or the suspenseful build up to the aliens finally saying "hello". It looks closer to what he did with 2012 or Day After Tomorrow than Independence Day, which is much more sci-fi/conspiracy thriller/action comedy than destruction porn. I hope to be proven wrong, but eh.

Thank you. Anecdotal, but I was at a Superbowl movie when the spot played, and the immediate reaction from almost everyone there (all casual movie folks) was "Where's Will Smith??" Since then, this is the common reaction I've been hearing from almost everyone when I talk about this movie. Sure, he's not as big a draw in general, but in this movie, in the right role, he would have been. Seriously think it will chop like 75m off the gross. Big Willie's fallen off, but he's still an icon. It'd be like doing a Top Gun 2 with only Val Kilmer and Kelly McGillis.

This feels totally right in the general "feeling" you describe. It's some intangible thing you put a finger on. I just think that unlike those movies, Conjuring 2 actually has pretty damn good reviews and a wide open marketplace (when was the last big horror movie)? That could save it. The others? Right with ya. Also, forgot about Annabelle. That proves there is an audience for more of these, though I do wonder if the satisfied demand/mediocre reception to that one could possibly hurt this. Could just prove that this franchise is strong, though.

I actually totally called "flops" like Neighbors, Alice, Nice Guys, and even Money Monster (a decent hit) doing exactly what they did. It was just clear there was a fundamental flaw with these movies doing much of anything impressive. Say for X-Men soon as the reviews came through. I didn't think TMNT2 would drop this bad but the lack of buzz was palatable, it was like an anti-buzz. It's just a bad slate. I think Dory is going to be the biggest of the summer and the biggest of the year, even if the trailers have been eh. Central Intelligence just seems like a perfectly sound comedy hit with two of the most reliable draws in Hollywood. The market is dying for a horror, and Conjuring 2 is THE horror movie this year. I'm still not buying ID2 being huge, I wish I could. But it should be a more exciting next few weeks.

I meant relative to expectations and the performance of comparisons like Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron, which featured similar characters and hooks. As you can see I still noted that it was very impressive- I just think Marvel has hit a ceiling. NOTE: And before this starts a flame war, with the exception of a break the mold TDK type movie, I think all superhero movies have.

I don't really think the box office is "depressed" like people keep saying-people just don't want to see the movies that are out over this one month span. Everything has a completely reasonable explanation for doing exactly what it did, and they would have done so in any climate. Civil War has audience fatigue (and lulz piracy), Neighbors 2, Alice, and TMNT2 are shitty looking sequels to movies with meh reception, and X-Men lost the entire original cast and had no real "hook" to it- not to mention the bad reviews. Conjuring 2, ID42 (maybe), Central Intelligence, and Dory all seem ripe to do very well. I don't think it's a condition of the box office/movie economy. It's just a slate of movies that regular people don't care that much about (outside of Civil War, but even there I have a lot to say about how audiences over 40 are sick of superhero movies).

This feels like a much more necessary sequel though, and it doesn't hurt that the market feels like it is dying for a big horror hit. I see one or two horror movies a year usually, and assuming reviews are half decent, this will be one. Buzz was great from the first trailer. I think the generally laggy box office is hurting people's predictions for this. Buzz isn't huge, but it'll pick up. The market's right, I think.

This is actually getting shockingly solid reviews so far, even if it is apparently a throwaway movie (really, who didn't expect that?) As long as it has some solid funny bits, I'm seeing it, and it appears that it really does.

Loved the High Sparrow/Tommen/Jamie stuff, some excellent scenes there. Everything else was mostly setup, but had to be expected considering the holiday. Fine episode though, the show needed a week to breathe. Sick of locker room speeches by Dany, that's some Friday Night Lights stuff. Next four weeks should be packed and awesome.

The critics were way off on Apocalypse, though. That shit is wayyyyy worse than most critics made it out to be. Yeesh. And I have DOFP and First Class in my top five superhero movies ever made, so I'm not a "hater" or whatever we can anyone who doesn't like a CBM these days.

Do people get some sort of satisfaction by saying how "wrong" critics were or something? Because the whole "Man, X-Men is WAYYYY better than stupid critics say" thing doesn't need to be repeated every five posts, really.

This, man. When everyone was going crazy bashing Kanye in the Assassin's Creed trailer saying that this "talentless hack" ruined everything, I was just like LOL. Sure, he's a douchebag, but just because he sucks personally doesn't mean that he can't have some of the best music of the 21st century. Shit, he produced most of the Blueprint! Dude was making classics before he ever picked up a mic.

I'm reading three books at once to make up for the severe dearth of good movies in theaters, so there's that, also.

1) Will Xmen make more than $67.5m this weekend? Yes 2) Will Xmen make more than $80m this weekend? 2000 No 3) Will Xmen make above $92.5m this weekend? No 4) Will Alice make more than $47.5m this weekend? No 5) Will Alice make more than $60m this weekend? No 6) Will Alice make more than $72.5m this weekend? No 7) Will Alice make at least 70% of the gross of Xmen this weekend? 3000 No 8) Will Angry Birds stay above $20m? Yes 9) Will Nice Guys' total gross pass Keanu's total gross by the end of the weekend? 2000 Yes 10) Will Jungle Book drop more than 40%? No 11) WillCivil War's PTA stay above $4,500? Yes 12) Will The Darkness drop more than Ratchett and Clank? Yes 13) Will Neighbours remain within $7.5m of Civil War this weekend? 3000 No 14) Will the two main new entries combine to more than $150m? No 15) Will Money Maker drop less than 37% on Sunday? 2000 Yes 16) Will The Wailing have a PTA above $6000? No 17) Will Zootopia stay in the top 9? Yes 18) Will The Huntsman have a PTA above $650? No 19) Will Mother's Day stay above Barbershop? 3000 No 20) Will the World End by Saturday? Hope not Bonuses 15/20 - 2000 16/20 - 4000 17/20 - 6000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will be the gross of Alice be as a percentage of Xmen's? 64.5 2. What will The Boss make on Sunday? 67k 3. What will Civil War's World Wide total be by the end of the weekend? 1.104 b Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 6. Jungle 9. Zootopa 11. Love Friendship 14. Darkness 16. Boss 19. Greek Wedding

Didn't Apocalypse sell more tickets than DOFP overseas, but the dollar valuation has dropped enough to account for a loss in total gross? Maybe I'm confused- I'm a domestic box office guy. Still, I think it's certainly dropping a fair bit. Gopher's numbers look very right to me.

At the time, The Lost World was like Age of Ultron or The Dark Knight Rises or something opening on that weekend. It was the mega sequel to what had been the ultimate blockbuster of recent years. So, that.

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Why would they be wasting money promoting their guaranteed 100 million dollar megahit?