Cmasterclay

I wish it was playing here! Luckily enough there's a showing of Sicario right by me, and I'm catching the 6:45 showing. Can't wait.

What? We're having a second straight weekend with a 30+ opener. The Intern did more than probably most of us expected. These past three weeks have been probably the most exciting September in a long time, with four big time openers over 25, and a few mid-level hits like Black Mass, Everest, and Intern. Don't be cynical just for the sake of it.

Everest has only one or two 2D showings a day this weekend in the theater I go to, and another one nearby is the same deal That's.....not good. Sure, it's expanded theaters, but it doesn't appear to have expanded screens much, especially 2D

I mean I could be wrong on this one (I don't plan to see it) but from the trailers/synopsis/reviews it seems pretty clear that it's supposed to be a father/daughter type relationship in a quirky dramedy, not really a rom com at all.

Frontier combat, that's a new one.

I wouldn't say those are the only seven with a shot. The seven most likely, sure, but I'd say that there's potential for Bale (as you noted), Keaton (if they push him lead, which I'm not sure), Tom Courtenay (vet in a smaller, really well-liked movie- has yielded surprise noms for guys in the past), Abraham Attah (getting pushed apparently), and even Will Smith, if his movie is good.

Wow! This kinda snuck up out of nowhere. I thought this was coming next year for sure.

In DC? Where?

I enjoyed it a ton and thought it was mostly great, but it never really quite gets to THAT point where you know you're watching something truly special. It lacks a sense of build and energy, and it jumps around too much to really establish the kind of consistent stakes and rhythm that would have truly elevated this into the stratosphere. It isn't really even a gangster movie- it's really a very realistic, clinical crime procedural (it's as clinical as Fincher without the mastery of the tone, but full disclosure I think Fincher's movies actually struggle to balance pace/energy with tone at times, too). It doesn't have any "intense" moments in terms of plot or structure, but it's intense by it's very nature because it's so gritty and authentic. It DOES feel like the real story. It feels like what the whole Whitey/FBI tale felt like, without unnecessary "All my life I wanted to be a gangster....." witticisms or philosophizing that turns it into a cliche gangster movie. And that's good! I appreciated that. But it also means it never really hits the kind of peak necessary to take this movie above and beyond. But it has some memorable directorial flourishes, excellent cinematography, completely spot-on dialogue, and some really memorable scenes. And that cast! Really just great. Depp is unbelievable. Perfect role for him. Edgerton is exceptional too, and he nails a very distinct Southie accent variation that's especially impressive because he's from Down Under. Definitely worth seeing this movie.

Without even going into statistical analysis or heavy data, this number is right where Black Mass should be, and don't let MT tell anyone different. The Town and the Departed were both heavily marketed Boston crime sagas with starry casts and strong reviews. The Town adjusts to 26 mill. The Departed adjust to 34 million. 30 million is right in the middle of those two numbers, and that's what Black Mass looks to do. Easy peasy.

I think that this is a classic instance of confirmation bias. Yes, some movies that were portended for big time breakouts by looking at MT (important to note that it drastically undersold MI, to name just one example) actually broke out, but of course the movies that breakout are going to show up on MT, because all new major new releases show up there, and you can fit and analyze that data in retrospect to a certain film's box office. MT has no baseline. Black Mass did about 35 percent more sales than Perfect Guy Wednesday, but if you were to extrapolate from that data, it would only amount to 3m! There's no way to control for seasonal variation and volume- alot less tickets are being sold now in the fall. There's also no way to control for what movies are advertise and packaged for MT over Fandango. Also, MT has a tiny reach compared to Fandango, and according to data, a much older skew (explaining the MR number), so it is both a tiny sample size and a sampling error in selecting a representative sample. There's nothing wrong with using it as a supplement, but to use it as the ultimate source is just a failure of basic statistic and probability on all levels.

The only people that were expecting that much were people who overinflate the value of MovieTickets.com. MT is an extremely flawed metric in a vacuum and it's box office malpractice to treat it as gospel. Looking at reasonable high end comps for Black Mass like Equalizer (34) Gone Girl (37), American Gangster (43) shows zero empirical evidence that a breakout of 50 million plus was in the cards. Yes, as the founder of the SOC over 55 mill OW club, I realize outliers DO happen, but weighing the body of statistical/logical evidence is the most important thing in BO, and when it comes to Black Mass, nothing over like 27 OW is a disappointment.

Dude, the numbers came out at 4:30 EST. Black Mass is a hard R-rated gangster movie for working, serious movie faring adults that's probably going to play well late into the night. Maze Runner is a young adult movie targeted to high schoolers, most of whom were barely even out of school when these numbers were posted. Numbers increase from Variety/Deadline almost every week. Message to everyone: R-E-L-A-X.

Tremendous number for Black mass. Using Equalizer numbers it would do about 33 mill, and using Gone Girl comp it would do about 41 mill, so that seems like a reasonable range. Should do in the high 30s. Also, fun fact I just learned: back in the 1980s, Johnny Depp used to open for my Dad's band all the time. Depp had a punk band based in South Florida called the Kids, and my Dad happened to be one of the leaders of the South Florida rockabilly/punk scene, so Depp's band played with him and opened up for pops a few times. Apparently Depp came off like a bit of a punk, but my dad did note that all the young kids in that scene put on that persona, and really, plenty of evidence Johnny Depp is a pretty nice guy otherwise. Anyway, I'm just disappointed that we aren't talking about Black Mass starring Larry Miller this weekend It coulda happened.

Spotlight is getting incredible praise out of TIFF. This really might be something here. I def see it getting a nom.

I really don't see how this year is weak in Best Actor, last year had weakish noms but the overall field was great (too bad they ignored Gyllenhaal/Hardy/Teller/Fiennes/Affleck/Tatum), this year they might actually nominate deserving noms (fingers crossed). Fassbender is getting universal praise. Redmayne is getting just as good of reviews for Danish Girl as for Theory, which also had similar lukewarmish reviews. Leo should be awesome. Depp is getting super strong notes- he seems to be a stronger version of Carrell last year, who got a nom. Caine is a legend and apparently gives his best performance in years. That seems like a good field right there. Add on top of that Damon (apparently excellent), Hanks (Hanks), Redford (Truth is getting strong enough notices and apparently he's great), Cranston (ditto what I said for Redford), Brad Pitt (By the Sea is apparently much better than Unbroken), Hardy (divisive performance but some people absolutely LOVE it), Will Smith, Colin Firth if Genius comes out this year, the perpetually underrated Ben Foster, Hiddles (even if his movie sucks he's apparently good), JGL, and maybe even Keaton if they push him lead for Spotlight, where he's getting a ton of praise. It's a totally fine year. Some people just wanna be negative.

Bridge of Spies, By the Sea, Burnt, and the Walk haven't been seen yet. In the Heart of the Sea was moved so it could contend for awards and it could easily premiere at AFI or as the secret film of NYFF. Miles Ahead is supposed to be great and it hasn't been seen yet, same with Genius, though both could go 2016.

Could easily happen next weekend and even the weekend after, too. Maze Runner seems like a lock and Black Mass has the combo of exceptional marketing/starry cast/strong reviews and buzz/derth of adult dramas that I see it hitting close to 30 million. The weekend after, HT2 looks locked, and Everest easily could do it if it doesn't blow off too much juice in IMAX next weekend. Awesome September, generally, even with a crappy start.

I went to see this on a whim because I haven't seen a movie since SOC, and boy am I glad I did. First of all, and MovieMan said this in the main topic, but see this with as loud and obnoxious and as fun of a crowd as you possibly can. Makes the film that much better. As for the movie, it was a perfect blend of wink wink comedy and true terror- but unlike most funny "horror" movies, it was, ya know, actually scary. Just an excellent balance. The scene where the grandma pops up in front of the camera was one of the best jump scares I've seen in years. Luckily, it kept low on the jump scares, favoring more creative and creepy sensibility and sprinkling in the jumps. Also, I usually hate kids in movies, but man, these two kids were absolutely terrific. Great finds (well I guess the kid from the Very Bad Horrible Day movie isn't really a find, but he standsout).

Apparently I Saw the Light is kinda hot garbage. Not too surprised. Hiddles is getting solid notices, though. Also, apparently the Gavin Hood drone movie with Aaron Paul and Helen Mirren, which I fully expected to suck, is pretty damn good. Excited to hear about Truth today. Don't think Trumbo is much of a contender, but we shall see.

Great to see the near universal praise for the Martian (or the Mahtian, if Damon is really still reppin Boston). Today we also get the world premiers of Our Brand is Crisis and I Saw the Light. Both could be interesting contenders, but I have my doubts (though Hiddleston might nail it). Tomorrow we get Truth and Trumbo. Sunday we get Freeheld and the Program. Let's get it!

Huh, everything I read before bed says that Jake G is strong but the rest of the movie is muddled and cheesy. But maybe it changed over night! At least it isn't Fifth Est./Judge level bad.

Great to see Demolition carry on the TIFF tradition of shitty opening night movies!

It doesn't premiere until New York Film Festival.

Awards wise this has always been Depp's showcase (and Edgerton, to a lesser extent). Could get a SAG ensemble nom, though- universal praise for the cast. Also, marketing is tremendous, it has a great hook, there's a market for it, and I expect this to be a pretty substantial hit. 80+. With momentum from that, I wouldn't completely rule out a BP nom if everything that hasn't screened yet turns out weak. But yea, this is gunning for Depp and Edgerton noms, and maybe makeup. That's the game.