Cmasterclay

Good counteranswer. Some real hot box office analysis right here.

Thia franchise skews old as shit. I went to see it last night and I think I was the only person under 25 there. Its an old school spy thriller starring Tom Cruise. Its not gonna have the same preview IM as Ant'Man, a Marvel movie about fighting ants and superheros. Its gonna be fine. Also, thia movie fucking rocks. Go see it.

1) Will Vacation drop more than 25% on Thursday? Yes 2) Will Mission Impossible make more than 60 million? No 3) Will MI5 make more than 5 million from previews? No 4) Will Pixels finish with more than Ant-Man? Yes 5) Will Minions fall more than 50%? Yes 6) Will Vacation make more than 30 million for the 5 day? No 7) Will JW increase more than 48% on Saturday? Yes 8) Will IO finish ahead of JW by more than half a million? Yes 9) Will Trainwreck drop less than 30%? No 10) Will any film increase more than 60% on Friday? Yes 11) Will any film increase on Thursday? Yes 12) Will Papertowns drop more than 58%? Yes 10/12 3000 11/12 4000 12/12 6000 What film finishes in spots: 5 Vacation 7 Southpaw 9 Inside Out 11 Mr. Holmes 2000 each and 3000 bonus for all 4 right Bonus 1: What will Ant-Man and Minions combine to make? 5000 36.2 Bonus 2: What will MI5 gross WW? 10,000 for closest, 7000 for second, 3000 for third closest. 150.44

1986

Abstain

1.am 2 yes 3. JW 4. yes 5. Yes

Marketing campaign has been nuts for SouthPaw in recent weeks (at least for during programs/sites I look at), and considering how hot Gyllenhaal is, and the heavily promoted soundtrack, and the fact that it's the only serious adult drama in wide release this summer (or at least until SOC), I sense a small breakout potential. I'd be curious if it could win the weekend if Pixels and Paper Towns underperform, and it appears they really are. I wonder what it did at previews.

1) Will Southpaw open to at least 15 million? Yes 2) Will Southpaw have a Saturday increase? Yes 3) Will Pixels be one of Brian Co'x top 5 opening films of all time? Yes 4) Will Paper Towns win Friday? Yes 5) Will Ant Man gross more than Minions? Yes 6) Will JW and IO both fall less than 38%? Yes 7) Will Terminator have more than a 52% jump on Saturday? Yes 8) Will Trainwreck decline more than 35%? No 9) Will any of the top 3 films on Thursday, increase? Yes 10) Will Paper Towns open to more than 25 million? Yes 11) According to Rentrak, will Minions gross more than 70 million WW? Yes 12) Will Ant-man decline more than 50%? Yes 10/12 3000 11/12 4000 12/12 7000 What films finish in spots: 1 Pixels 2 Ant-Man 4 Southpaw 6 Inside Out Bonus 1: What does Pixels gross opening day including previews? 5000 10.50 Bonus 2: What will Trainwreck gross? 5000 18.6

Huh. Maybe at the time, but in our constant retrospective musings on movies, it seems Edwards' choices as director (which I liked), the underwritting of human characters, and the choice not to have multiple monster battles (which I liked) all seem to get the hate. Whereas with PacRim, most people who dog the movie seem to dog Hunnam, along with the semi-inexplicable nitpicking about all the fights being at night. But idk. Hunnam and Kitsch at least bring a sort of rugged believable intensity to their roles, and they've done great work on TV. ATJ, Worthington, Liam Hemsworth, and Courtney are just as bland as it gets. But its all splitting hairs, I suppose. Next on the bashing line: Joel Kinnaman. Just watch. It's gonna happen.

Casino Royale is my favorite Bond and one of my favorite action movies ever, but it feels more like Bourne with a touch of Bond than a Bond movie. Skyfall to its credit is able to reinvigorate and update all the Bond tropes and ideas to fit with a new, darker contemporary style. It FEELS like a fun old-school Bond movie, but constructed around modern filmmaking tropes to make the perfect Bond movie for this generation of movie goers- which is why it's such a big hit. And it's a technical master- Deakins and Mendes crush it. But it lacks the sense of energy and fun that defined CR, and it also needed a tighter script. Still, the backlash has gotten to the point where it seems like people suddenly think it's a shitty movie or something. It has flaws, but IMO it is quite the achievement, and alot more good than bad.

Different strokes for different folks there. I thought ATJ in Godzilla was absolutely dire to the point where he damaged a movie I otherwise really enjoyed, but most people I've read on here seem to think he was merely underwritten and forgettable. When it comes to Hollywood's attempts to inorganically create the next Joe Schmoe handsome white guy stars, opinions differ.

I don't get the hate for Hunnam- sure, his performance in Pacific Rim is no technical masterpiece, but he's charismatic enough and has good presence, even if his line readings are average. He's likable enough in that role, and his work on SOA was usually pretty excellent. He certainly looks like a superstar and has the natural charisma to pull off ruggedly likable roles. He's certainly no ATJ or Jai Courtney. He's more like Taylor Kitsch (though Pac Rim wasn't a huge flop on JC level or anything) in that his biggest exposure came in negative fashion (Pac Rim backlash and 50 Shades) but he's shown his talent on TV and has alot of the tools needed to be a star.

Platoon please.

Gopher and Baumer are like a WWE tag team where the two guys are constantly arguing, bumping into each other, and on the verge of a breakup, but they come together and win the Tag Team titles and become close friends in the process. We're still waiting for the moment when one of them goes full heel and hits the other from behind with a steel chair.

I'd say in. This has the potential to expand the audience far beyond Rocky fans. I'm not a particular fan of the franchise (I don't hate it, but I wasn't compelled to see RB or anything), but I'm gonna be there for this opening night. Incredible trailer and MJB appeal to me and I think alot of others. It can do at least what Balboa did and expand the audience further beyond that enough to hit like 135.

I haven't had this much trouble predicting a movie in a long-time. I can't put a finger on what its gonna do. On one hand, it has the concept and the stars to do well. On the other hand, marketing has been rather subdued and Sandler is toxic. A couple of times this got legitimately one of the best reactions I've ever seen for a trailer, a few other times it got absolutely stonewalled. It's a marketable concept with appeal across demographics/age groups, but the buzz seems to have peaked with the first trailer (when buzz was huge). I honestly wouldn't be a bit surprised with anything from 25 to 60 million this weekend. This shit has a Kal-El range for me.

This gets dogged alot because it got nominated over TDK, but I really enjoyed. Fascinating, poignant, well-shot, brilliantly acted.... it's all there. Shame it got negative press because of the whole 2008 Oscar fiasco. In my mind, it's probably better than all the movies nominated that year (except maybe Slumdog, been awhile). Great for anyone, an absolute must if you're a history buff.

Man, Colin Farrell must really hate Jessie's Girl.

I was tracking sellouts in my area and in D.C. last night and Trainwreck was selling out shows until 12am everywhere, so I'm surprised/mildly disappointed that it didn't hit 12-13. Seems odd it dropped so much considering that comedies tend to play very well late-night. If it follows the same pattern as Knocked Up, it hits about 32 million this weekend, so hopefully it hews pretty close to that!

The trailer shows that its an intense survival thriller set in the frontier. I read the book, and beyond the basic set-up, that's pretty much the entire thing in a nutshell. It's going to be about the imagery and the intensity and the performances. Not a plot-based story, this one.

Huh. That looks surprisingly GREAT. I say surprisingly because I'm a big-time fan of the book, and believe it's a beautiful piece of Western/survival thrills, but I thought Inarritu's head would be too far up his own ass to adapt it in a way that brings out the intensity and the raw power of the story. But that trailer is exactly what this movie should be- a thriller with significant artistic craft, and not Birdman with bears and beards. Plus, Leo and Hardy? Fuck yes, motherfucker. And it looks gorgeous. I wish this was going wide on Christmas. With this and Hateful 8 both being limited till the 8th, Christmas Day this year ain't looking too hot, quality-wise.

Certainly didn't love it but in a very weak summer for tentpoles quality wise outside of Mad Max, it's certainly entertaining enough. It misses opportunities to let its hair down and just get weird, but I appreciated the smaller-scale and more personal stakes. It's funny, but it never quite fell into a perfect tonal rhythm. The action is very well-choreographed but it gets repetitive- I would have trimmed some of the action or tried something different with it. It's cleverly plotted and emotionally accessible, though the MCU stuff feels even more shoehorned in than usual. The movie really benefits from a great cast. Rudd is great, though they never quite let him get fully into his best qualities like they did with Chris Pratt. He did great but it felt like he could have done even more with a bit tighter scripting and better direction. Douglas and Lilly are totally fine. Stoll is GREAT, probably my favorite MCU baddie (though it's not much competition.) He has such energy and charisma he eats up the screen whenever he's on it. The movie was better whenever he was in it. He lets his hair down the most of anyone in it (sorry, that sounds mean- dude is the poster for #BaldIsBeautiful), and he gives a deliciously hammy B-movie crazy man performance. Breaks the boring MCU villain mode, at least to me. Pena is fucking hilarious, and a huge highlight. And hey, T.I.! Dude showed out in this! The cast and the concept carried this to something good, though it needed some work in the editing and directing departments to really get to anything higher than that. Still, I was entertained.

1) Will Ant Man open to more than 70 million? No 2) Will Ant Man open to more than 80 million? No 3) Will Minions fall less than 45%? No 4) Will IO finish ahead of JW? Yes 5) Will Trainwreck open to more than 20 million? Yes 6) Will Terminator drop more than 45%? No 7) Will Spy drop less than 45%? Yes 8) Will Self/Less be in the top 10? No 9) Will Baahubali fall more than 55% No 10) Will Ted have a Friday increase of more than 25%? Yes 11) Will any film increase more than 58% on Saturday? Yes 12) Will Minions have a Thursday increase? No 10/12 3000 11/12 4000 12/12 6000 What finishes in spots 5 Jurassic 7 Mike 8 Gallows 9 Ted 2000 each 3000 bonus if all 4 are right Bonus 1: What will Ant Man make this weekend? 5000 62.44 Bonus 2: What will Minions make on Friday? 5000 19.2 Bonus 3: What will Trainwreck make on Friday? 5000 13.44

1) Will Minions have a 3.25X? No 2) Will Minions be number one this weekend? No 3) Will Minions ever have at least a 50% Friday increase, from here until the first Friday in August? Yes 4) Will Minions make 1.1 billion WW or more? Yes 5) Will Minions make more than IO domestically? Yes 6) Will Minions ever have a Tuesday increase of more than 22% (up until the second Wednesday in August)? Yes 7) Will Minions and IO combine to make more than JW by the end of the game? Yes

Apparently it's his best movie yet, so I'm actually pretty confident he gets in, and so does Carol, even if it is only 5 noms.