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keysersoze123

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Everything posted by keysersoze123

  1. keysersoze123
    Call of the Wild is also on a tear. Thinking 6m+ true friday. That should ensure 20m+ OW.
  2. keysersoze123
    Sonic is up like 190% at similar point to yesterday at MTC. This will come down but its definitely increasing more than 110-120%.
  3. keysersoze123
    Onward Advance/Marathon Shows(T-8) MTC1 - overall 110 shows 2771/17628 MTC2 - overall 104 shows 3721/11669 36939.75 32284.25 Not sure the advance screening will make a big dent. Probably will do 0.5m or so. MTC1 Prev - overall 1115 shows 4756/229214 86698.84 72495.69 MTC2 Prev - overall 1123 shows 1908/192893 24569.14 17480.08 MTC1 OD - overall 2083 shows 2885/436131 51155.73 43531.30 MTC2 OD - overall 2458 shows 3134/441362 36434.56 29110.42 Will not see these numbers are great but it has another 13 days to go. It could go either way at this point.
  4. keysersoze123
    WOW. it did better than my projections. From MTC perspective it did slightly less than Dolittle but actual number is higher. May be it will sell more adult tickets than Dolittle. Good enough for 20m OW.
  5. keysersoze123
    I will look at it tomorrow. But I dont expect real acceleration until final week. Until then there will some demand for advance shows.
  6. keysersoze123
    The Call of the Wild Previews Final MTC1 - overall 831 shows 17059/132152 257120.41 206699.12 MTC2 - overall 881 shows 14035/122716 161085.89 112795.03 Good walkups again. it almost did dolittle numbers on MTC1 while finished 11% behind on MTC2. I am thinking 0.9m previews. MTC1 OD - overall 2099 shows 21336/350588 292847.45 245281.12 post 6PM 1050 shows 11563/174555 176349.81 143367.31 MTC2 OD - overall 2123 shows 20400/315754 199869.01 162237.46 post 6PM 866 shows 8867/128751 104376.07 73160.44 Awesome final day of PS sales. OD PS looks like 1.7-2m by the time shows start tomorrow. I wonder if it can hit 6m friday and increase by 50% on saturday. I would say 18m OW for now. But wont rule out 20m.
  7. keysersoze123
    Brahms: Boys II Previews Final MTC1 - overall 533 shows 7484/70614 94528.79 72336.73 MTC2 - overall 522 shows 6083/65711 68794.93 47604.67 Very good walkups. At MTC2 almost 90% of ticket sales happened today and tripled the number at 3PM PST. I would say 0.4m previews. I had checked OD PS couple of hours ago. MTC1 - overall 1385 shows 3738/186518 47315.79 37336.89 MTC2 - overall 1258 shows 3082/171129 31437.60 23720.28 Very poor PS. Though with good walk ups like today it could hit 2-2.5m OD including previews. 5-6m OW.
  8. keysersoze123
    13% drop at MTC's for sonic. So around ~ 2.3m.
  9. keysersoze123
    Brahms: Boys II Previews(Mid day Thursday Update) MTC1 - overall 533 shows 3809/70614 49036.57 37690.05 MTC2 - overall 523 shows 1914/65826 22054.61 15247.65 Ticket sales have more than doubled at both MTC but overall numbers still ridiculously low. I would say 0.25m previews at this point. That would need numbers to double from this point which is not hard considering how low it is.
  10. keysersoze123
    Chance is always there though I wont say that is probable. Its looking at mid teens based on where things stand. Let us see where OD PS ends up. That will provide better perspective.
  11. keysersoze123
    The Call of the Wild Previews(Mid Day Thursday Update) MTC1 - overall 805 shows 11343/128149 174919.43 141269.41 MTC2 - overall 883 shows 7371/122941 84547.75 59074.63 Almost doubled at MTC1 and slightly more than doubled at MTC2 though it was very low. I think it can hit 30K tickets sold between 2 MTC as Ford should help bring in older audience that will ensure some attendance for later shows. I would say 0.85m previews at this point.
  12. keysersoze123
    I am seeing 78% drop at MTC1 from Monday and 79% at MTC2 for Sonic. So around ~ 2.6m.
  13. keysersoze123
    The Call of the Wild(T-1) MTC1 Prev - overall 752 shows 5794/120308 93451.18 76168.00 MTC2 Prev -overall 874 shows 3388/121469 39614.35 27592.15 MTC1 OD - overall 2053 shows 10510/341064 147990.99 123894.50 MTC2 OD - overall 2114 shows 10910/314907 106532.90 85688.44 One thing is weird about MTC2 Prev numbers. i must have posted OD BO instead of Previews BO. Anyway previews look weak. It should Triple or do slightly more and that should be good for 0.6-0.7m. But OD PS is promising. If that is doubled or so it should have good OW.
  14. keysersoze123
    Brahms: Boys II (T-1) MTC1 Prev - overall 503 shows 1670/67379 21651.14 16671.93 MTC2 Prev - overall 524 shows 698/65925 8060.90 5548.21 MTC1 OD - overall 1409 shows 1870/188907 24197.04 19095.99 MTC2 OD - overall 1261 shows 1663/171369 16510.02 12527.53 Dire numbers. sub 0.5m previews and single digit OW I would say.
  15. keysersoze123
    Invisible Man(T-8) MTC1 - overall 750 shows 3180/160625 55488.70 45975.33 +1347 MTC2 - overall 770 shows 947/144025 11809.92 8591.96 +174 At least it sold some tickets in MTC1. Most of the shows that have sold well are in big cities. May be this could be a late bloomer.
  16. keysersoze123
    Thanks Shawn. I meant initial prediction which is generally seen 6-7 weeks before release. I thought industry tracking is not out until 3 weeks before release. I was not critiquing BOP. Just put it that when predictions are made long before release they tend to be all over the place. Breakouts are under predicted while disappointments are over predicted(DP/BOP etc). We also have movies like Frozen 2 where final weekend was very close to initial prediction(125m?). I understand predictions tend to change a lot once we have tracking data.
  17. keysersoze123
    not just those 3, even prometheus released between those movies and movies lost show count very fast. At least screencount is way higher than 2012 and so market could support 3 movies a week. Question is would audience have the appetite to see all of them when the country is just back from this situation.
  18. keysersoze123
    I did not think the genre will have backloaded PS sales. Anyway Brahms: Boys II MTC1 - overall 1108 shows 1140/152899 14907.00 11714.70 post 6PM 600 shows 911/83355 12137.43 9435.60 MTC2 - overall 1218 shows 1198/165306 11600.99 8940.88 post 6PM 491 shows 670/65933 7432.88 5144.19 As putrid as thursday for sure 🙂
  19. keysersoze123
    Deadline initially just puts in Industry tracking based on Awareness/Definite Interest/first choice numbers. That may or may not be accurate. BOP is predicting based on social numbers. Again its accuracy tends to be all over the place. Initial prediction had Dolittle ahead of Bad Boys 🙂
  20. keysersoze123
    As I said they are hard to predict. Its easier to do weekly comps once we have one tuesday number. plus I checked just one MTC. Too many variables.
  21. keysersoze123
    Discount tuesdays are hard to predict. Just as comps Dolittle dropped 57% in ticket sales at MTC on 1st tuesday and gross dropped 69%. Sonic is dropping just 33% in ticket sales at MTC1. I wonder if the drop would be just 40-45% from President's day.
  22. keysersoze123
    While its unlikely for it to beat Dolittle(releasing week after a huge family breakout) I would not count it out. I think it could potentially do better than Dolittle with OD PS and it have way better reviews than Dolittle. But releasing one week after Sonic is not a great idea. The should have released it couple of weeks before that. Dolittle benefited from absolutely no competition for families.
  23. keysersoze123
    The Call of the Wild OD MTC1 - overall 1274 shows 5576/220521 84037.20 70659.84 post 6PM 640 shows 3332/111045 54560.15 44877.09 MTC2 - overall 1959 shows 7054/288168 68243.35 54763.33 post 6PM 799 shows 3085/117898 35861.09 24880.95 Just as I thought OD PS is much better. MTC1 showtimes are not yet final. You will see a huge boost in showtimes tomorrow. I expect it to take the lead tomorrow. I think at least mid teens OW will happen based on the data seen so far. Reviews are not bad either and it has Ford.
  24. keysersoze123
    The Call of the Wild(T-2) MTC1 - overall 584 shows 3635/98588 59793.13 48934.60 MTC2 - overall 853 shows 4967/113283 50574.91 39694.70 Still PS is very low. Will need huge ramp up to even hit 1m previews. Let us where things are tomorrow. It could do well with walk ups as its a family movie. I could see it hit mid teens OW even with small previews. I will update with OD PS sometime later. Brahms: the boys II (T-2) MTC1 - overall 391 shows 879/55404 11386.85 8761.94 MTC2 - overall 468 shows 397/60430 4664.15 3249.71 This has probably lowest PS that I have tracked. Lower than Turning. Definitely headed towards single digit weekend.
  25. keysersoze123
    I will be surprised to see any hollywood movie during prime weekends and summer this year. Though the movies that were planned for summer would be delayed because of Virus. I hope @Olive would do post COVID-19 preview for the year for chinese movies. Then the hollywood movies would release around the big chinese movies. They will at least give 2 weeks of open run for Chinese movies. .
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