LonePirate

Simon's best chances at awards recognition are probably nominations in the Best Motion Picture-Comedy and Best Actor-Comedy categories at the Golden Globes. Depending on the competition or the Globes doing something weird (like placing a drama like The Martian in the Comedy category), those two nominations should be solid. Wins would be longshots but not impossible if the competition is weak. Alfie's Song or Love Lies might sneak in for Best Song. The Globes only has one screenplay category but the Oscars have two so the film could be a dark horse for an Adapted Screenplay Oscar nomination given how Hollywood loves This Is Us and Simon's script has received some praise. One of the songs could surprise and earn an Oscar nomination as well. Depending on the end of year competition and the level of support among the acting guild, the film could be a longshot at a SAG Ensemble nomination and maybe Robinson for an Actor nomination but both would be very longshots. The film seems to have a ton of support in the acting community and Robinson has an indie film coming out very soon co-starring alongside Kathy Bates, Felicity Huffman and William H. Macy. Berlanti's deep TV connections and support also help with possible SAG nominations. As far as other guild awards, the screenplay could receive a Writers Guild nomination. Then you have the various film critics circles and groups. Anything is possible with them, such as some group giving Garner a Best Supporting Actress award. Some of them giving rising star or similar awards and Robinson could possibly win one of those despite his existing body of work. As I mentioned upthread, if this film had been released in the fall, Fox could easily have built an awards campaign around the film and its chances at being nominated for something would definitely increase. Yet being a modest spring release, the chances of being remembered come awards season in 8 months is a tough hill to climb. I wouldn't expect anything but the two Globes nominations could very well happen. Anything beyond that would be a surprise.

The repeat viewership for this movie is surely unheard of in recent years for a film that has not hit $100M+.

Your theater sold more tickets to GND today than the number of dollars in yesterday's PTA for the film. There must be numerous theaters out there showing it 3-5 times a day but selling only a handful of total tickets and perhaps none at all.

Congratulations if you picked Chappaquiddick and Paul, Apostle of Christ to have the best Sunday to Monday holds. They dropped 61% and 64%, respectively.

BP dropped 76% on Monday, March 5 before the spring break holidays began. That is on par with yesterday’s 73% drop. The drops may be normal even if they seem brutal when isolated in time. If March 6 is any guide, then we should see plenty of increases today in the 30-45% range.

Here is my final list. I like comedies, especially ones I watched during my high school and college years. I also enjoy a smart action flick and a good thriller. 1. Heat (1995) 2. T2: Terminator 2 3. Aliens 4. Se7en 5. Mrs. Doubtfire 6. The Dark Knight 7. Up 8. The Silence of the Lambs 9. Basic Instinct 10. Good Will Hunting 11. Casablanca 12. The Talented Mr. Ripley 13. Return of the Jedi 14. 9 to 5 15. Beauty and the Beast (1991) 16. The Terminator 17. The Usual Suspects 18. Brokeback Mountain 19. National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation 20. Adaptation. 21. The Last of the Mohicans 22. Psycho (1960) 23. Jackie Brown 24. There's Something About Mary 25. Shakespeare in Love 26. Vertigo 27. Being John Malkovich 28. Nurse Betty 29. Best in Show 30. The Incredibles 31. Toy Story 2 32. Memento 33. There Will Be Blood 34. Prisoners 35. Gone, Baby, Gone 36. The Godfather Part II 37. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 38. The Empire Strikes Back 39. Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade 40. The Fugitive 41. Alien 42. WALL-E 43. Toy Story 3 44. Inception 45. Super Troopers 46. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 47. Groundhog Day 48. Insomnia 49. Star Wars - A New Hope 50. In the Bedroom 51. Citizen Kane 52. Bad Santa 53. Aladdin 54. Easy A 55. Gone Girl 56. Easy Money 57. Bowfinger 58. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy 59. Ferris Bueller's Day Off 60. L.A. Confidential 61. In & Out 62. Dead Man Walking 63. Match Point 64. Ted 65. The Naked Gun 2 & 1/2 66. Zootopia 67. Roxanne 68. Finding Nemo 69. Beverly Hills Cop 70. The Birdcage 71. Speed 72. South Park - Bigger, Longer, Uncut 73. Collateral 74. L.A. Story 75. Airplane! 76. National Lampoon's Vacation 77. Star Trek (2009) 78. The Insider 79. Sixteen Candles 80. The Naked Gun 81. Pretty Woman 82. True Lies 83. Star Trek: First Contact 84. Tootsie 85. Caddyshack 86. Back to School 87. Girls Trip 88. American Beauty 89. The 40 Year Old Virgin 90. Michael Clayton 91. Blue Jasmine 92. Blazing Saddles 93. Fletch 94. Weekend at Bernie's 95. The Little Mermaid 96. Shrek 97. Wedding Crashers 98. The Devil Wears Prada 99. The Hangover 100. Mean Girls

The drops from Sunday are simply brutal: AQP: -66% RPO: -75% BP: -73% The drops from last Monday’s holiday inflated grosses are almost as horrific: RPO: -68% BP: -60% Summer weekdays cannot arrive soon enough.

Yeah, it gives me a Deep Blue Sea vibe as well. DBS was a fun movie with one of the most hilarious on screen deaths ever. If The Meg can match the entertainment value of DBS, then it will be worth the price of admission and then some.

Yes, that is a fair point which I will counter by saying that even with 21 years of inflation, Simon will still fall short of In & Out by $20M (or roughly $80M after adjusting for inflation as doubling 1997 grosses is a close approximation of current dollars). Sure, Kevin Kline may still have been enjoying the aura of his Oscar win for A Fish Called Wanda but he wasn't that big of a star. Dave was pretty much his only other hit for which he could be credited as the primary star. Granted, In & Out was more farcical comedy than the romance/coming of age film that Simon is. Then there is the whole societal acceptance shift of the subject matter during the past two decades. The lack of a big name (apart from Garner and Duhamel in their minor roles) made the film tougher to woo over audiences. Still, the story and film itself could have been used to sell the film. I firmly believe Fox screwed up the marketing for Simon. This film could have easily grossed between $80-$100M had it been handled properly.

Warning: rant incoming! Yeah, the numbers this weekend were very disappointing. Given the strong reviews and out-of-this-world reactions from viewers, Simon should not be dropping like it has been. Plenty of films would pay a mint for the critical and fan reception Simon has received; yet the film is behaving barely better than the average film. I think Fox had absolutely no idea how to market the film. They went after the teen girl audience with little attention paid to anyone else. They surely knew they had a well-made film that would resonate with adult audiences, especially given the intense emotional reactions people were having to the film. Adults of all stripes have bawled their eyes out over the film and fallen in love with it. Fox should have released it in October which would have helped tremendously in that regard. Most of the film takes place during the fall which only makes a fall release more sensible. Then they could have fired up a typical awards season marketing campaign filled with the usual praiseworthy blurbs from critics, especially since there were so many available. Treating the film as an awards contender, replete with a world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival in September, would have propelled this film more than anything else. There are millions and millions of straight adults in the US who watched and appreciated Brokeback Mountain ($83M, 2005), The Birdcage ($124M, 1996) and In & Out ($63M, 1997). They would have enjoyed Simon as well and the film should have easily landed in that range of unadjusted grosses. Not only that, but Fox should have heavily targeted LGBT audiences. Instead, it seems like they were a secondary and minor consideration. None of my adult LGBT friends, acquaintances and co-workers had even heard of the film until after it was released. Those two adult audience groups would have helped push Simon to a much larger opening if they had been made aware of it. Alas, Fox seemed more focused on earning every possible dollar they could for the far more expensive and far inferior, Maze Runner 3 which was released a few weeks earlier than Simon. They had two movies to sell simultaneously to teen audiences and they mainly focused on recouping their investment on MR3. Simon received a cheaper and smaller marketing push, almost as if it was an afterthought. Perhaps Fox thought it would bomb since Moonlight and Call Me By Your Name didn't light the box office on fire. If I were pursuing a marketing degree in college, I would jump at the chance to write a dissertation on how Fox approached (and bungled) the marketing for this film. There are certainly some lessons to learn here. I am just not sure Fox or anyone in Hollywood is interested in learning them. It's a shame given that Simon is truly a great film, almost certainly the best film Fox will release all year. Reactions from the UK, Australia and New Zealand match those from the US and Canada and prove how real, universal and human Simon is. Berlanti and company have created a film that is deeply affecting and improving the lives of so many people. You can't put a price on that even if the box office dollars only deem it a minor success at best.

Disney is sure in a pickle. BP and AWIT need roughly 4 and 3 times their respective grosses this weekend to reach their respective century marks, or 7th century mark for BP. If only one of the films was flirting with a milestone, the other would likely be used to help it cross the finish line. Then there is the decision about whether AIW could boost either film if they were close or to keep AIW's opening as high as possible. BP seems like it will benefit from AIW sellouts but AWIT is a tougher road to climb, even though it is closer to that target. I suppose Disney could just Hercules both of them and let them fall short. I'm not sure AWIT has enough in the tank to make it on its own but BP is going be close if it continues to hold like it did this weekend.

Another surprising number this weekend: Sherlock Gnomes’ Sunday gross was only 6% smaller than its gross on Easter Sunday last weekend.

ICOI is down to the 8th best PTA in the Top 10. It will face a hefty theater drop this week ahead of what will likely be a decline of 35%+ this weekend. It has had a heck of a surprising run but the descent has begun for the film. $85-$90M seems like a final total for it.

PRU dropping a shade under 50% is perhaps the most surprising result from this weekend and its truckload of surprises.

That 59% drop will seem small compared to its drop this coming weekend when it loses 1,000+ theaters.

I respect RfaD but the film fucked me up, something not even a horror movie has ever accomplished. I left the theater a complete wreck so much so that I had to skip going to movies for a couple of weeks to recover and to process the film. To say the film is a downer is massive understatement. If I am ever kidnapped by terrorists and they want to torture me, all they need to do is play this film on a loop. I don't hate the film and I can appreciate what Aronofsky created. I simply can never watch the film again. I didn't include the film in my list but I would place it in an Honorable Mention category.

@baumer you're one of the best gauges of popular sentiment on these boards. That's meant as a compliment, btw. If that trailer has won you over, then general audiences will likely provide a warm reception to both the trailer and the film.

Some PTA changes this weekend: RPO: -40% BP: -20% A: -53% ICOI: -27% SG: +7% PRU: -26% AWIT: -9% LS: -20%

I haven't seen either so i can't comment on the quality of the films apart from things like the RT score and critical reaction. However, Christian films are much like horror films. It doesn't matter what critics think of them. They will perform well or they will flop based almost entirely on how the core audience and fans react. If the crowds are pleased, then the films are deemed successful, especially since most of them are so low budget they can turn a profit if the base fans are pleased.

Did anyone else put this Rodney Dangerfield and Joe Pesci classic on their list like I did?

You need to keep in mind the film's tiny budget and its sensational domestic gross when you're discussing Get Out and its Oscar performance. Yes, it was a quality film centered on some hot topic issues; but more importantly, the film was a financial winner that surprised a lot of people. I certainly would have preferred Get Out to have won Best Picture instead of The Shape of Water, though.

I was debating whether to give the movie an A- or a B+ and I ultimately decided on a B+ for a few reasons. First off, how did the creatures come into being? If they were alien invaders who were blind and relied on (loud), distinguishable noises as a means of assault and geolocation, how did they find Earth in the first place given the lack of sound in space? If they were some sort of government experiment (my current belief), why were they released or allowed to escape into the wild? If they were a subterranean or oceanic species, what brought them to the land surface? If a shotgun can severely injure or kill them, how did the military units around the world fail to contain them? Also, how did some government or military official not already discover high pitched or high frequency sounds could essentially stun them? I really needed a few minutes of a voiceover or text introduction or a prologue of some sort. As it is, the movie is like The Walking Dead - a creature story without an explanation. Then there is that damn nail. Those steps had been traversed many, many times and given how cautious they were about everything, I cannot believe they would allow that nail to remain exposed especially since they were barefoot 100% of the time. Sure, it was a plot device; but that doesn't make it any less stupid. Still, I enjoyed the movie and its overall concept. It was certainly a tense and chilling thriller.

Love, Simon finally passed a 3.0 multiplier on Friday, something that the much more hyped TR and PRU will not do and AWIT may barely achieve. Still, it's disappointing given the A+ Cinemascore and with ICOI only days away from reaching a 4.0 multiplier after opening on the same day. I'm not sure if LS was too young for adults or too gay for straight people or possibly both. Then again, rom coms are a tough sell nowadays for some reason.

Interesting #, Exhibit A: ICOI is finally crumbling. It had the second lowest PTA in the Top 10 on Friday after a minor expansion yet again this week. Interesting #, Exhibit B: If TMS can hold off PRU the next couple of days (a big if), then PRU will have fallen out of the Top 10 after just two weekends. Talk about playing to your core fans and no one else.

Drops from the inflated Friday numbers of last week: RPO: -55% A: -66% BP: -43% ICOI: -41% SG: -53% IOD: +50% (theater count more than tripled, though) PRU: -61% AWIT: -51% LS: -54% TR: -69% PAOC: -60% GND: -73% GN: -64% PR: -72%