MattW
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Everything posted by MattW
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RotK's 3rd set of weekdays dropped 80% from the 2nd, Avatar's dropped 60%. I'm thinking this will about split the difference but lean towards Avatar because of the day of the week that new years falls on.
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21?
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My gut says Mon,Tue,Wed this week will be low to mid 20's, Thursday about a 30% dip, and the 4rd weekend in the 90-95m range. Overall roughly 40% off from last week.
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$325m Deadpool $1025m BvS $1050m Cap3 $675m Apocalypse $575m Suicide Squad $275m Gambit $475m Dr Strange -
Just guessed on the Saturday/Sunday split for both weekends. Look about right? (dat cume on Saturday night....lol)
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Dec 20-27: +14.15m 10+ this week, and at least another 10m after that, probably 875-880m finish.
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I don't remember seeing the OS breakdown for Saturday/Sunday so I just guessed at what seemed like a reasonable bump-drop.
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Wednesday Star Wars TFA ACTUALS - 38,022,183
MattW replied to Dementeleus's topic in Numbers and Data
If it does $164m or more then it will have the 4th highest normal-business-hours-FSS. Avengers, JW and Ep7 are all at about $190m, and then Ultron at $163.7m -
@ERCboxoffice $200m is 5% increase over FSS. Kind of silly to count $57m Thurs gross as part of wknd when calc drops. I'm thinking 130-150
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My gut (edit: not guy, oops) says if today looked bigger than Monday we would have gotten an early indication from someone like we got yesterday. But I've underestimated TFA all the way up until now so chances are I'm wrong here too
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Monday's total will be bigger than Pan's entire domestic run.
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If accurate and if the last 33% was all cheap matinees at $7 per ticket that would put the admissions at around 19.75 million for the domestic opening.
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Is there any way of knowing how accurate the $57m is for Thursday previews? I wouldn't be surprised if it was off quite enough to make Friday the biggest ever for normal business hours, but it could just as well go the other way.
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$61m Sunday is more impressive than Saturdays $69m I think. Incredible. Bodes extremely well for the weekdays.
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So it finally looks like FSS will be bigger than ThFS. That's good. Also kind of unfortunate we'll never know how accurate the $57m preview number is. It's so big that even a slight discrepancy could give TFA the biggest or second biggest Friday proper.
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Not sure about the rest of what you wrote but BO.com says 12.6% was IMAX: http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2015-12-18-north-america-thursday-night-report-star-wars-the-force-awakens-crushes-record-with-57m-launch-into-hyperspace-pacing-for-first-100m-opening-day-in-domestic-history Would put it right at $30m for an opening of 238, and almost $31m for mid-240's
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RotK had a 30% drop but that wasn't affected by midnights, previews, or opening day demand. I think after removing previews Ep7 will have at best a 35% drop for 120m which is just over a 50% drop from "OW". So yeah, I'm in.
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Even with Star Wars opening it didn't drop that much. Dec 6 to 13: +28.6m Dec 13 to 20: +15.4m Another 20m through new years weekend maybe? I think it has a good chance of reaching 870 total
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Bad math, sorry. Sat 85-90 Sun 59.5-64.5
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Daily breakdown: Wed - $14.1m (known) Thu - $58.6m (known) Fri - $56.8m (known) Sat - $95m???? Sun - $68.4m??? Total - 279 Seems really high for Sat and Sun. Even shifting 5m over to both Th and Fri would still have Sat and Sun pretty high.
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The 47m could include all presales for later in the evening like Rth said about the Friday matinees of 43m that THR quoted. Not sure though.
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3.5X multiplier is average. I'd be surprised to see higher than that for Ep7 considering the Thursday preview number. But I definitely expect it to beat Titantic
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It's only a disappointment because yesterday when DL said 130-145 so many people grabbed onto the 145 like it was guaranteed, talking about Friday proper being 88m.
