BenedictL11

Except Ted, Magic Mike, and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-total-recall-dark-knight-rises-358234Much more sense than Nikki, as she's not always reliable when it comes to Friday numbers, except when she was very close on Ted.

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?view=weekly&yr=2012&wk=30&p=.htmRTH was nearly on target with that number for Avengers. Nicely Done!

http://www.deadline....rises-overseas/

Step Up 4 will drop similar to the third one this weekend.

The Watch should witness a drop in the mid 50s, similar to The Change-Up. Then, in its third weekend, Campaign will easily crush it.

They are still estimates. Why does Summit take so long to report actuals?

Massive increase for IA4 and ASM but both will most likely drop 20%+ tomorrow. Meanwhile, Ted continues to hold on well.

Tuesday's Top Movies: 1. ICE AGE 4 - $6.9M ($58M) 2. SPIDER-MAN - $5.4M ($210M) 3. TED - $3.3M ($165M)

IA4 will likely drop over 50% this weekend. Had the overseas total went under expectations, it would have lost money for Fox.Ted could still make $10M in its fourth weekend.

Yeah right, Moonrise Kingdom's Monday drop wasn't even severe as To Rome With Love (67%). Bad WOM and bad legs for MK? Pfffft, that's a lie. Critics and audiences do not like Midnight in Paris-wannabe as much as Wes Anderson's recent offering.

My weekend analysis: Sony’s superhero reboot, The Amazing Spider-Man grossed $62M in its 3-day portion with a solid $137M since its Tuesday debut in a very wide 4,318 theaters. Averaging $14,360, the $230M starring Andrew Garfield (The Social Network) and Emma Stone (The Help) did not generate good reviews like the first two but more well-received than the third one from five years ago. 58% of males and 54% over the age of 25 resembled the audience this weekend with just 44% of the total coming from 3D screens. By comparison, it did much better than comic reboots such as “Batman Begins” ($48.7m/$205.3m), “Superman Returns” ($52.5m/$200.1m), “The Incredible Hulk” ($55.4m/$134.8m) and “X-Men: First Class” ($55.1m/$146.8m). Audiences gave it a strong A- in CinemaScore with over 290,000 Flixster Users giving it an 84% rating. It has less than two weeks do gross as much as possible before another comic book superhero adventure, “The Dark Knight Rises”, which could challenge as the highest opening weekend of all-time even without 3D surcharges. A $250-275m gross seems achievable if it follows the Superman Returns trajectory. The first three made more money even without 3D inflation, but consider this total as a success for a reboot especially with more revenue added worldwide. Last weekend’s #1 sleeper hit, Universal’s Ted slipped just 40.9% to $32.2m. Averaging a stellar $9,890 in its sophomore frame, the $50M R-rated raunchy comedy from the creator of the FOX show hit, Family Guy has stocked up $119.8m in merely ten days. Although it must deal with “The Dark Knight Rises” in two weeks and another R-Rated comedy, “The Watch” the week after, it doesn’t have direct competition next weekend so I expect a $20M+ third weekend. The summer weekdays will prevent it from missing $200 million if it continues to hold well. I see a final total of $200-210M, a career high for Wahlberg and Kunis. If it holds better than expected in late July, it could challenge as the highest grosser for the studio of the year! Disney/Pixar’s Brave stays steadily at #3 with a third weekend of $19.6m, declining 42.5%. So far, the $185M family adventure has amassed $174m in 21 days of its release. Though with “Ice Age: Continental Drift” releasing next weekend as direct competition, it will still well over $200 million. It has no possibility of reaching “Up” ($293m) but it will definitely eclipse “Ratatouille” ($206.4m). With excellent WOM, even if it didn’t get excellent reviews like most Pixar releases, it will certainly pass “Wall-E” ($223.8m) with a domestic run in the $225-235M range. In 4th place, Universal’s R-rated adult-oriented thriller, Savages saw a better than expected result, with a start of $16m in 2,628 venues for a healthy $6,095 average. Budgeted at $45M, the decently-reviewed directed by Oliver Stone (World Trade Center, Natural Born Killers) starred Taylor Kitsch, coming from a bad streak of big-budgeted flops. While it received good reviews, the audience didn’t like it as much with a C+ CinemaScore. 51% of females and 61% over the age of 30 represented the audience. Despite receiving mediocre reception from audiences, the summer weekdays will help it to pass $50 million+ domestically. Warner Bros’ critically-acclaimed R-rated dramedy, Magic Mike dropped an understandable 60.0% to $15.6m. In only its second weekend, it has packed in crowds with $72.8m more than 10 times its miniscule $7M budget. With no other choices for females in the marketplace for the rest of the month, it will conclude with $100-110 million making it Channing Tatum’s 3rd $100M hit in a row after The Vow ($125m) and 21 Jump Street ($138.4m). Lionsgate’s Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection saw a reasonable 59.9% fall to $10.2m. By its second weekend, the $20M comedy has made $45.8m. By comparison, Madea’s last film, “Big Happy Family” had a larger decline of 61% and made $40.9m in the same pace eventually seeing $53.3m. Unlike “Protection”, it did not benefit from summer weekdays as his movies normally launch in the spring. Following the same trajectory, it should see a total of around $60 million, which will gross the most for his franchise in two years. Paramount/Dreamworks’ Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted descends only 36.5% to $7.5M. In 31 days of its run, it has taken in $195.8m, already earning the highest in the franchise. Considering it faces “Ice Age: Continental Drift”, it will pass $200M next week. The $145M over-performing family sequel will achieve $210-215m domestically. Paramount’s 3D concert event, Katy Perry: Part of Me failed to connect with audiences in 8th place with only $7.1m with $10.2m since its Thursday premiere in 2,730 venues for an unexciting $2,604 average. Budgeted at $12M, it earned good reviews and 81% of females and 72% under 25 saw and gave it an A in CinemaScore. Female-skewed usually sees strong midweek summer business, which will actually make money back because the studio kept the budget low. However, these factors won’t save it enough to have excellent legs because theaters will not keep films with that low of a theater average. It may gross $25-30M domestically. Focus’ sleeper indie, Moonrise Kingdom added merely 30 theaters to 884 sites but enjoyed the lowest decline in the top ten with just 8% to $4.5m. The $16M critically-acclaimed preteen comedy romantic drama has juiced up $26.8M. With no other choices targeting adults, it should complete its run with at least $45 million but it does have a chance of passing $50 million if it continues to have excellent holds. Sony Classics’ R-rating romantic movie directed by Woody Allen, To Rome with Love rounded out the top ten. Costing $25M, it went wide but delivered meager results with $3.1M from 806 locations for a disappointing $3,852 average. After a big comeback and success of Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris” from last year, it failed to impress critics. Currently, it has a $5.3M total. With audiences seem to agree with critics of what they saw and the paltry average, it will not have room to grow and will only see a gross in the $15-18M area.

Libs from KJ stated, "Savages has sold out the 7:05 show at Lincoln Square and 8:10 show at Kips Bay in NYC, and will soon sell out the 7:45 show at Century City in LA. I could see a $5,000 PTA, I think it has appeal to a Hispanic audience that probably shouldn't be underestimated." Along with that, I've also seen some sell-outs for Ted and Amazing Spider-Man in the NYC area. Libs is right, I wouldn't underestimate Savages at this point. I'd say in the range of $12-14M seems likely. Plus, THR's Early Friday Numbers has Savages at 4-5m range while Perry in the $2.5-3.5m range.

I'm predicting Ted at $30-32 million and Magic Mike at $15-16m for their second weekends. What do you all think? BTW, Spider-Man's number, assuming no signs of front-loading, could get to $150m in the 6-day portion.

I saw Ted last night in a packed theater twice as crowded as Brave's 1st weekend (A). Roger Ebert gave it 3 1/2 out of 4 stars. He told the truth. I enjoyed very much and would love to watch it again.

My analysis: Ted generates the highest R-rated opener in over a year while Magic Mike still over-performs at #2 coming close to my optimistic prediction. For the first time ever two R-rated hits started higher than $35M OW. Meanwhile, Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection beats expectations. However, People Like Us represents the first wide release since Glee: The Concert Move 3D to open outside of the top 10 but Moonrise Kingdom jumps to 7th place with a sturdy performance. 1. Universal’s Ted premiered at the top spot with an outrageous opening of $54.4M in 3,239 theaters. Averaging a muscular $16,800, the R-rated comedy from the creator of Family Guy earned decent marks from critics but Roger Ebert gave it an outstanding 3.5 out of 4 stars, the first comedy to receive that high mark since last year’s Horrible Bosses. 56% of males and 52% under 30 represented the audience. The achievements that Ted currently has: • Highest R-rated opener of the year beating “Prometheus” ($51.1m) • Largest comedy opener of the year beating “21 Jump Street” ($36.3m) by nearly 50%. • Biggest opener under 3,300 theaters in 4 years since “Sex and the City” ($57m) • Best non-3D opener behind Universal’s “Snow White and the Huntsman” ($56.2m) and “The Hunger Games” ($152.5m). Why did it have a wild opening? • The marketplace starved for comedies as they underperformed for the last three months. • Although most TV creators do not convert well to movies (Mike Judge’s popular shows, Beavis and Butthead and King of the Hill, Office Space), Ted sounding like Brian and Peter, popular characters from Family Guy attracted audiences into seeing it. Office Space failed to relate any of Judge’s shows in the marketing, a factor of why it flopped in 1999. • The poster, marketing, commercials and green band trailer even got positive reactions on YouTube like the Restricted trailer, a piece of marketing the FCC will not allow on public TV. • The female ratio went higher than expected, which drove revenue more than expected and it faced “Magic Mike”, which made the opening weekend even more impressive. • The midnight grosses even beat the much more hyped “Magic Mike” by 40%, which easily guaranteed a $35M+ opening and better chance to take the top spot over it. Speaking of “Magic Mike”, despite all the hype, it still topped its opening day by less than $1.5 million. The starpower of Mark Wahlberg (Contraband, a surprise hit from 5 months ago and The Fighter, a critically-acclaimed film that grossed $93M) and Mila Kunis (That 70s Show, Black Swan, Friends with Benefits) added interest. The opening marked a 75% improvement over recent comedy disappointments such as “That’s My Boy” ($13.5m) and The Dictator ($17.4m) combined. Although Universal’s Safe House, The Lorax, and Snow White and the Huntsman easily created more than $100M this year, most of the studio’s films (Big Miracle, American Reunion, The Five-Year Engagement, and the notorious big budget Battleship) flopped domestically. Originally, the studio put Ted on July 13th but after they found out that the anticipated sequel, “GI Joe 2” delayed to March of next year due to reshoots, they took advantage and big gamble to move up 2 weeks earlier. The big gamble paid off and the sleeper hit makes a huge comeback for Universal. Budgeted at only $50M, audiences gave it a high A- CinemaScore and 60,000+ Flixster Users gave it an 88% approval. Those both factors bode well for its legs. As for the final gross, it does face “The Amazing Spider-Man” in its second weekend but I definitely see this ending with at least $175 million domestically. If it does hold on better than expected this month, it has a legitimate chance at $200 million and the highest grosser for the studio this year. No matter what, it definitely will gross $100 million+ domestically, the highest gross ever for Wahlberg in a lead role. 2. Warner Brothers’ Magic Mike debuted with $39.1 million in just 2,930 venues for a tremendous average of $13,354. Directed by Steven Soderbergh, the $7M R-rated comedy-drama starring Channing Tatum (21 Jump Street, coincidentally came on DVD this week and The Vow at domestic grosses over $100m+ back-to-back this year) and Matthew McConaughey (Failure to Launch, How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, The Lincoln Lawyer) received solid marks from critics. 73% of females and 57% under 35 signified the audience. The achievements that Magic Mike has: • Highest R-rated non-3D debut to not reach #1 since “Safe House” • Best premiere in under 3,000 theaters since Tatum’s “The Vow” ($40.1m) • Largest opener for WB since “Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows” ($39.6m). The marketplace starved for female-oriented films as they underperformed for the past two months including The Five-Year Engagement and What to Expect When You’re Expecting, another factor of why it opened outrageously. The marketing of the stripping paid off powerfully with a $19.4M Friday but the false marketing, which the movie did not show as much sexual content as the advertisements did fell an alarming 41.4% (a Twilight-type fall) to $11.4M on Saturday. In spite of the excellent marks critics gave, audiences only gave it a B in CinemaScore and a lukewarm 74% rating based on 33,000+ Flixster users. Because of the rush factor and the mediocre WOM, it will not gross as much as The Vow, let alone 21 Jump Street. However, female-oriented movies tend to have excellent summer weekdays and Tatum should see his 3rd $100M+ hit in a row with a final gross of $100-110 million. 3. Disney/Pixar’s Brave lost 48% to a still healthy $34.1M. The competition of the new releases resulted in the drop closer to “Wall-E” than “Up” So far, the $185M production has amassed up $131.8m in 10 days. As it easily beating “Cars 2”, which lost 2/3 of its audience in its sophomore frame and concluded its race with $191.4m, it will absolutely pass $200M. With the 3D share lower than expected last week and expected to drop even further, I see this finishing in the $225-250M range, a big comeback for Pixar and a second hit in a row for the studio after “The Avengers”. 4. Even with major competition, Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection met in the high end of the industry’s expectations with $25.4m in 2,161 theaters producing a healthy $11,749 average. By comparison, it beat Perry’s earlier film this year, Good Deeds by 73% and slightly exceeded Madea’s “Big Happy Family” by 1%. “Protection” matching its predecessor “Family”, in spite of facing more competition makes this opening even more very impressive. Budgeted at $20M, it marks as the highest 4th place opener of all-time. With summer weekdays boosting that all of his films never benefited from, it will certainly see a gross in the $55-60m range allowing it to earn more than Family. 5. Paramount/Dreamworks’ hit sequel, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted enjoyed another solid decline falling just 39.9% to $11.8m. In only its 4th weekend, it has $180m in the bank. The $145M production has exceeded expectations and made a comeback for animated sequels that disappointed last year including Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2, and one of the biggest flops of all time, Happy Feet Two. The animated sequel has benefited from excellent WOM and summer weekdays. Therefore, it will easily make the most money in the franchise and complete its run with $205-215 million. 6. Fox’s action flop, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter suffered the worst decline in the top ten collapsing 63.2% to $6.1m. In its sophomore frame, it has a miniscule $29m against a $69m budget. With “Amazing Spider-Man” taking 3D screens from it next week, better options for males and terrible WOM, it will not finish much more than $40 million. 7. Focus’ surprise hit, Moonrise Kingdom jumped back into the top ten after an over-performance in wide release. Expanding to 854 locations, the $16M Wes Anderson comedy increased 45% to $4.9m for a healthy $5,769 average, just off 32.9% of its theater average despite more than doubling the theaters from last weekend. So far, the critically-acclaimed sleeper has earned $18.5m in its 5th week release. With excellent WOM and connecting audiences outside of the NY and LA area, it should finish in the range of $40 million +. This will not only allow it to pass the other indie film “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” but also allow it to surpass the much more hyped flops, “Rock of Ages” and “That’s My Boy” domestically. 8. Fox’s Alien prequel, Prometheus got slimed by competition this weekend. Slicing half of its audience to $4.9m, the $130m production has a running cume of $118.3m in its 4th weekend. The total amount domestically will barely match its production cost with just over $130 million. 9. Universal’s Snow White and the Huntsman decelerated 44.4% to $4.5m. The $170m adventure has accumulated $145.7m. A final gross of decent $153m sounds reasonable. 10. Disney’s The Avengers enjoyed the lowest decline in the top ten. Off only 38.4% to $4.4m, the $220M production has taken in a colossal $606.5M. The biggest hit of the year should see a final total of $620 million. 11. Disney/Dreamworks’ People Like Us got off to a rough start with $4.3m in 2,055 locations having its per theater average nearly matching its theater count (a dull $2,071). Budgeted at $16M, critics gave it negative marks, which made its opening even worse considering that these types of dramas usually get good reviews. With the theater average lower than last week’s adult-oriented film, “Seeking a Friend at the End of the World”, it will lose over 1,000 theaters after its sophomore weekend. A total of a disappointing $11-14M seems likely. 12. Sony’s Men in Black 3 decreased 44.9% to $3m. With the $225M sequel collecting $169.7m, it should see a final total gross of $177 million, 21% lower than its budget. Although it fell behind its predecessors (they didn’t have 3D inflated), its worldwide gross will prevent it from flopping. 13. Warner’s musical disappointment, Rock of Ages got crushed by competition collapsing 62.9% to $2.8m. In its third frame, the $75M musical has merely taken $35M and will conclude with $41 million. 14. Sony’s comedy flop, That’s My Boy fell even worse. Tumbling 70.6% to $2.2m and with a miniscule $34.4m in the bank, it will barely pass $40 million not even close to matching its $75M budget. 15. Fox Searchlight’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel only slipped 32% to $1.1m. The $12M indie sleeper has a total of $40.4m and will conclude its trip with $45 million. I know that most people did not expect an indie film to beat two movies with big stars. “Hotel” and “Kingdom” have shown that movies with big stars do not always translate to box office success. 16. Focus Features’ flop, Seeking a Friend at the End of the World suffers one of the worst declines of all time (pummeling 72% to only $1.06m) and will finish with a distraught $8 million against a $10m budget. 17. Sony Classics’ $25M “To Rome with Love” expanded to 29 theaters with $692,300 for a decent $23,872 average. Unlike “Kingdom” and “Hotel”, critics gave mediocre reviews despite an all-star cast. With a total of $1.23m, it will finish with $15-20 million, which will fall 65% below last year’s “Midnight in Paris” ($56.8m) as it will unlikely connect with audiences outside of NY area.

From Nikki Finke, "FRIDAY 9:30 AM: I’m hearing that the domestic matinees for Magic Mike are “crazy”. This is really reminding me of opening day for the first Sex And The City. (I loved Warner Bros’ marketing line to women for Channing Tatum et al that “on June 29th tell your boyfriend you’re going to the book club”)." Link to the quote: http://www.deadline....e-2m-midnights/