mahnamahna

It'll probably happen next weekend, too... and the weekend after if HT2 has a decent hold against Martian and October 16 could potentially have 3 films open around $25-30 million. Fall 2015 just looks to be massive. Also, Black Mass is selling more tickets than MR2 at this point, so low $30s seems like the low end. Unless MR2 is about to bomb hard.

Black Mass: $53 million MR2: $41 million Next weekend HT2: $42 million Everest: $30 million (after its IMAX debut) 10/2 Martian: $46 million 10/16 Goosebumps: $37 million Bridge of Spies: $28 million Crimson Peak: $22 million 10/23 Steve Jobs: $24 million Paranormal Activity: $21 million Fall 2015 is just looking huge, at this point.

Or both do $35-45 million OW lol. Black Mass might just be more frontloaded? Either way, it'd be pretty exciting to have 3 weekends in September with multiple $25 million+ OWs. And then October should keep up the pace, too. Fall 2015 is looking to be gigantic

Personally, I see this doing well, but not gigantic. Goosebumps, Pan and Hotel Transylvania 2 will take a lot of families in. Peanuts isn't exactly the same - since it's G-rated and targets young kids, while HT2 is older kids, Pan is older kids/pre-teens, and Goosebumps is older kids/pre-teens/nostalgic teens and adults. I'm thinking $42 million OW $147 million DOM 3.5x is excellent, considering Good Dinosaur will take almost all of the family audiences from Thanksgiving until Alvin 4.

The Visit, Perfect Guy, War Room, and MI5 make it 4. The first two will have $25m+ OW when most expected $12-15m. The other two will have sub-40% drops on the post-Labor Day frame. For Fall, anything over $25 million is a big OW tbh

9/18-9/20 Maze Runner 2: $48 million Black Mass: $30.5 million The Visit: $12 million ($45 million) Perfect Guy: $10.5 million ($43 million) War Room: $6 million ($47 million) Everest: $5 million A Walk in the Woods: $4 million ($26 million) Mission Impossible 5: $3.5 million ($193 million) Captive: $3 million Straight Outta Compton: $2.5 million ($159 million) 9/25-9/27 Hotel Transylvania 2: $45 million Everest: $31 million ($38 million) Maze Runner 2: $21 million ($79 million) Black Mass: $16 million ($55 million) The Intern: $10.5 million The Visit: $7.5 million ($56 million) Perfect Guy: $5 million ($50 million) War Room: $4.5 million ($54 million) 10/2-10/4 The Martian: $47 million Hotel Transylvania 2: $29.5 million ($84 million) Everest: $15 million ($60 million) Maze Runner 2: $11 million ($96 million) Black Mass: $9.5 million ($69 million) Sicario: $8 million The Intern: $7.5 million ($22 million) The Visit: $4.5 million ($64 million) War Room: $3.5 mlilion ($59 million) Perfect Guy: $2.5 million ($54 million) 10/9-10/11 The Martian: $34.5 million ($100 million) The Walk: $24 million ($27 million) Pan: $18 million Hotel Transylvania 2: $17 million ($106 million) Everest: $9 million ($74 million) Maze Runner 2: $7 million ($106 million) Black Mass: $6.5 million ($79 million) The Intern: $5.5 million ($30 million) Sicario: $5 million ($15 million) The Visit: $2.5 million ($68 million)

$27 million for both openers bodes well for the rest of Fall 2015.

It was never doing more than $3-4 million. Especially without major studio backing and a hastily-planned wide release.

No previews for Perfect Guy. Assuming a slight increase for Sat. It should get $27-28 million this weekend. Visit is about right. Great for both, considering they really weren't on the radar. Why wouldn't $60 million+ happen? It's about to have a great hold Post-Labor Day, a weekend where anything under 40% is phenomenal. It could have a sub-20% drop this weekend. And it won't really lose theaters next weekend, since there's only 4 other major films to give screens to next weekend (Perfect Guy, Visit, Black Mass, Maze Runner 2). With $8 million this weekend, it should be able to get a 4x or so. I'm thinking $70-75 million, since there won't be enough content until the first or second week of October to warrant taking away War Room's screens. IO, Compton, F4, UNCLE, Woods, Transporter, No Escape, etc will all lose theirs first.

I actually don't think it will. Maze Runner 2 Black Mass Everest The Walk The Martian All of them will take screens from MI5. There's still a chance, though. Perfect Guy looking at $26-27 million, Visit looking at $20-21 million, War Room looking at $7-8 million, Walk in the Woods looking at $5-5.5 million, MI5 and Compton looking at $3.5-4 million. If Perfect Guy really did $11 million, then I'll adjust to $29-30 million. Exactly. Black Mass and Maze Runner 2 could combine for $70 million+ next weekend... not to mention Everest doing $4-6 million in its IMAX run, or potentially more. And every weekend after that, except October 30th and December 4th/11th, looks rather solid, either due to its openers or the likely strong holds - or even both!

Things will pick up. September is already looking stronger than the August 2015 lineup (minus Compton, War Room and MI5) A Walk in the Woods: $30-35 million The Visit: $50 million (due to minimal horror competition) Perfect Guy: $55 million Maze Runner 2: $125 million Black Mass: $75 million Everest: $115 million Hotel Transylvania 2: $130 million The Walk: $65 million The Intern: $45 million

Well, this weekend didn't completely crumble. That bodes well for the rest of fall since there's at least one compelling release every weekend for the next 5 weekends after this one. And then a strong November/December after the meh last two weekends of October I wouldn't be surprised if late July/all of August being a letdown causes everything in September to do much better than expected, except HT2 and MR2. I definitely think either Black Mass or Everest will end up overperforming in a big way, if Perfect Guy and The Visit (2 rather low-key September releases) can get $20 million+ OWs. Everest really should have been released August 28th, though. F4 and UNCLE doing meh left room for a late-summer tentpole.

Should be able to leg its way to $50-55 million DOM with minimal competition for screens this next month.

On its way to a $355-360 million DOM finish

If it were released August 28th instead of sandwiched in between 7-8 adult-skewing films with relatively high GA appeal, I would agree. The amount of competition could cause it to do $70-90 million DOM instead. Regardless, Universal's had a phenomenal year, so anything else they make is just gravy Pan and Everest really would have been perfect for August this year. Minions/Shaun/IO were pretty much dead by August 7th, which would have opened up space for a new kids movie. And F4 falling flat left room for a mid-level tentpole to break out. Those two releasing in August would have helped out considerably with attendance. My guess for Fall 2015 The Martian: $225 million Hotel Transylvania 2: $130 million The Maze Runner 2: $125 million Bridge of Spies: $115 million Steve Jobs: $110 million Goosebumps: $100 million Everest: $95 million Black Mass: $80 million Crimson Peak: $70 million The Walk: $65 million Pan: $55 million Paranormal Activity - The Ghost Dimension: $50 million The Intern: $45 million The Last Witch Hunter: $40 million Our Brand is Crisis: $35 million

9/11-9/13 Perfect Guy: $16 million The Visit: $12 million War Room: $5.5 million ($35 million) A Walk in the Woods: $4.5 million ($19 million) Straight Outta Compton: $4 million ($156 million) Mission Impossible 5: $4 million ($188 million) 90 Minutes in Heaven: $3 million The Transporter Refueled: $3 million ($12 million) Un Gallo Con Mucho Huevos: $3 million ($8 million) No Escape: $2.5 million ($23 million) 9/18-9/20 The Maze Runner - The Scorch Trials: $46 million Everest: $33 million Black Mass: $24 million Captive: $7 million Perfect Guy: $6 million ($25 million) The Visit: $4.5 million ($19 million) War Room: $4 million ($40 million) A Walk in the Woods: $3.5 million ($24 million) Mission Impossible 5: $3 million ($192 million) Straight Outta Compton: $2.5 million ($160 million) 90 Minutes in Heaven: $2 million ($6 million) 9/25-9/27 Hotel Transylvania 2: $45 million The Maze Runner - The Scorch Trials: $21 million ($78 million) Everest: $19 million ($61 million) Black Mass: $15 million ($46 million) The Intern: $13.5 million Sicario: $7 million Before I Wake: $6 million The Green Inferno: $4.5 million Captive: $4 million ($13 million) War Room: $3 million ($44 million) 10/2-10/4 The Martian: $57 million Hotel Transylvania 2: $28 million ($82 million) The Maze Runner - The Scorch Trials: $11 million ($95 million) Everest: $10 million ($76 million) Black Mass: $8.5 million ($59 million) The Intern: $8 million ($25 million) Sicario: $4.5 million ($14 million) Before I Wake: $2.5 million ($9 million) War Room: $2 million ($47 million) Captive: $2 million ($16 million) 10/9-10/11 The Martian: $36 million ($111 million) Steve Jobs: $27 million The Walk: $21.5 million ($32 million) Pan: $18 million Hotel Transylvania 2: $14 million ($101 million) The Maze Runner - The Scorch Trials: $6 million ($104 million) Everest: $5 million ($83 million) Black Mass: $4.5 million ($66 million) The Intern: $4 million ($31 million) Sicario: $2.5 million ($18 million) 10/16-10/18 Goosebumps: $38 million The Martian: $24 million ($149 million) Bridge of Spies: $22 million Crimson Peak: $18 million Steve Jobs: $16 million ($53 million) The Walk: $11 million ($50 million) Pan: $8 million ($32 million) Hotel Transylvania 2: $7 million ($113 million) The Maze Runner - The Scorch Trials: $3.5 million ($110 million) The Intern: $3 million ($36 million) 10/23-10/25 Goosebumps: $27 million ($74 million) Paranormal Activity - The Ghost Dimension: $18.5 million The Martian: $18 million ($176 million) Bridge of Spies: $16.5 million ($47 million) Steve Jobs: $12 million ($71 million) The Last Witch Hunter: $9.5 million Crimson Peak: $9 million ($32 million) The Walk: $7.5 million ($61 million) Jem and the Holograms: $6 million Hotel Transylvania 2: $5.5 million ($120 million)

Not really. War Room got a lot of free advertising from pastors and social media. The Kendrick brothers don't exactly have the money to create elaborate ad campaigns, so their marketing is very grassroots/WOM.

If only Everest, Black Mass or The Walk had opened late August... seriously, any of those three would have been a welcome addition to the August lineup. Other than Compton, the landscape was barren.

It's definitely solid. Should end up with $45-50 million DOM on a $3 million budget, with potential for $55-60 million, if its legs really catch on through September.

Should get to $338-340 million, due to its dollar theater run and zero kid-friendly competition until September 25th.

Another update Star Wars - Episode VII: $700 million Jurassic World: $650 million Avengers - Age of Ultron: $460 million Mockingjay Part 2: $430 million Inside Out: $355 million Furious 7: $350 million Minions: $335 million The Good Dinosaur: $315 million Spectre: $275 million The Martian: $230 million

This summer was hurt by two of the biggest frames having too many dead spots. Batman vs. Superman leaving Summer 2015 certainly didn't help matters. May 1 - Avengers 2 8 - Mad Max 15 - Pitch Perfect 2, Poltergeist 22 - San Andreas, Spy 29 - Inside Out, Aloha, Insidious Chapter 3 June 5 - Southpaw, Hot Pursuit, Paper Towns 12 - Jurassic World 19 - Ted 2, Dope 26 - Terminator Genysis, Max July 3 - Minions, Vacation 10 - Ant-Man, Gallows 17 - Trainwreck, Pixels 24 - Mission Impossible 5, Magic Mike XXL 31 - The Walk, Shaun the Sheep Movie, American Ultra August 7 - Pan, The Gift, Ricki and the Flash, Hitman: Agent 47 14 - Straight Outta Compton, Fantastic Four - it's going to bomb no matter where it goes, but moving it allows Pan to enter August 21 - Sinister 2, Man From UNCLE, War Room 28 - Everest, No Escape, We Are Your Friends September 4 - Tomorrowland (why not? lol), Transporter Refueled, Walk in the Woods The schedules just need to start being more well-rounded. Not too bloated, but also not too light. I moved The Walk, Pan and Everest to late July/August, because I think the Fall 2015 slate is a bit bloated in terms of tentpole-esque films (Maze Runner 2, Everest, Walk, Martian, HT2, Pan, Goosebumps, Crimson Peak). Plus, Inglorious Basterds and District 9 have shown that critically-acclaimed adult-skewing tentpoles can do well in the late summer.

Probably not. I'm guessing $6.5-7.5 million for the 4-day, since it is a very large expansion and families have very little to go see, currently. As low as $4-4.5 million wouldn't surprise me, and as high as $10.5-11 million wouldn't, either. Personally, I think Compton and War Room will be the only films going past $10 million this weekend. MI5 could possibly get past $10 million over the 4-day, too. Anything to get IO past $350 million DOM

Not anymore! With that size of an expansion, and almost nothing for kids to see, IO should see at least a 200%+ increase over the 3-day and 4-day. And ensure it crosses $350 million DOM.

Considering how dead this weekend is, and how large its expansion is... no, still not It could definitely finish 4th for the weekend, though.