mahnamahna
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Everything posted by mahnamahna
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I know they've made some solid films since 2008, but DW's 2003-2007 output is outright awful if you remove Shrek 2, Were-Rabbit and Flushed Away Shark Tale, Bee Movie and Shrek the Third are horrible lol... I'd definitely rank Cars 2/Brave (Pixar's worst films) ahead of those 3. This looks to be what Don Bluth wanted the original Land Before Time to be, if anything (a serious epic with almost no dialogue) The Croods has a 73% on RT... GD should be 85%+ on RT. The Croods did $500 million WW, Good Dinosaur should do $600-800 million WW. Your argument just kind falls flat since GD is very likely going to make more money than Croods and have better reviews than Croods
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Minecraft | April 4, 2025 | Warner Bros.
mahnamahna replied to CJohn's topic in Box Office Discussion
If the It's Always Sunny crew is behind this, it could be a lot of fun. Really they should be making a 21 Jump Street-esque Lethal Weapon sequel, though... -
Creed highest grossing Rocky club (Yo Adrian, I just missed it)
mahnamahna replied to baumer's topic in Box Office Discussion
I could see this happening. Especially since WB does a great job with mid-budget films targeting GAs (Blind Side, American Sniper, The Hangover, etc) $33.5 million/$45 mililon $16.5 million ($69 million) $13 million ($88 million) $7.5 million ($100 million) $6 million ($111 million) $5 million ($122 million) $3 million ($126 million) $1.5 million/$2 million ($128 million) $132-134 million DOM. I guess I'll go IN, especially if it turns out to be a great film. I'd go higher, but November 2015 is just too packed. Spectre, Good Dinosaur and MJ2 could all potentially do $250 million+ DOM, while Peanuts should do $100-120 million DOM. X-Mas, By the Sea and Midnight Special will clog the atmosphere, too. And Suffragette should have expanded to wide release by Thanksgiving. With a less crowded landscape, Creed could do $175-200 million DOM if it's excellent. For now, $125-135 million DOM would be phenomenal. But who knows? Maybe Sep-Dec 2015 will be gigantic... wouldn't be all that out of place. -
Which is exactly why I think it'll get a 3x at a minimum. Nothing has mass appeal to families until Hotel Transylvania 2. MI5 and UNCLE don't have little kid appeal F4 is too dark/serious Vacation, Southpaw and Compton are inappropriate for kids Ricki and Paper Towns wouldn't interest anyone under the age of 11 or 12 The rest of August/September is adult-skewing With Minions/Ant-Man set to be under $15 million a weekend after Pixels' 2nd weekend, and Shaun/Underdogs looking to combine for sub-$50 million DOM... Pixels really has the family demo to itself for 1.5 months. I'm thinking a $50-55 million OW on its way to a 3.5x-4.5x. So $175 million to $250 million is my guess for Pixels' range. Pixels is in a similar situation as GotG/TMNT were last summer, since all of the tentpoles since JW have done less than $175 million DOM. If MI5 really opens to $40 million, $150 million probably won't happen unless it's excellent. Same with F4. I know I'm ridiculously bullish on Pixels, but 2015 has been pretty ridiculous so far with only 4 films crossing $200 million DOM this summer so far, I think either Pixels, MI5 or F4 will surprise and at the very least inch across $200 million DOM. Or Vacation/Compton could come out of nowhere and do the same.
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I'd highly recommend JonTron and Nostalgia Critic's reviews of Foodfight. They're hilarious. But I definitely don't think Cars 2 is as bad as some are making it out to be. Animated films I'd rank below Cars 2: Shrek 3 and 4 Happy Feet 1 and 2 Foodfight Open Season Home on the Range Chicken Little Doogal Clifford's Big Movie Care Bears Movie 2 Pokemon 2000 all of the DTV Disney sequels Piglet's Big Movie Pooh's Hefflalump Movie Pocahontas Delgo Hoodwinked 2 Happily N'ever After Brave Cars 2 is bad, but definitely not among the absolute worst films I've ever seen. I'd give it a C/C+. Nothing will ever beat the sheer disappointment I felt during Shrek the Third or sheer boredom I felt in Happy Feet.
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swap Dory and Cap 3 and that's probably the most realistic prediction on here Passengers could break out similar to Gravity or Inception if it gains awards traction
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Inside Out: A+ Jurassic World: A Minions: A Get Hard: A- Ant-Man: A- Paddington: B+ Avengers 2: B+ Pixels: B McFarland, USA: B SpongeBob 2: B- Vacation: C+ Tomorrowland: C+ The Wedding Ringer: C Kingsman: C- Hot Tub Time Machine 2: D+ Chappie: D- Mortdecai: F
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Weekend Prediction thread 9/27-9/29 Play the Derby
mahnamahna replied to Impact's topic in Box Office Derby
Laugh all you want... but the buzz for it is huge. If it gets decent reviews, along with Universal's hot streak, a $45-50 million OW isn't that odd, especially since it could be extremely frontloaded. Compton being the highest grossing August release is my bold prediction for the month -
Weekend Prediction thread 9/27-9/29 Play the Derby
mahnamahna replied to Impact's topic in Box Office Derby
Zero family-friendly competition (Shaun and Underdogs will combine for sub-$50 million DOM IMO) Late August is typically a dead period, which allows the late July/early August tentpoles to hold decently if they're well-liked Pixels looks like a crowd-pleaser -
$300 million is only the floor if SW7 does $550 million+ DOM and has phenomenal reviews. If it gets Hobbit-esque reception, I'd say Rogue One isn't even locked for $250 million DOM. I think Dory will be huge enough that Rogue One will have to settle for #2. Either way, Disney's happy they might even have the top 3 and #5 if BvS underperforms and Moana breaks out. the top 10 DOM for 2016 looks great (updating predicts): Finding Dory: $575 million (from a $140 million OW) Rogue One: $475 million (from a $115 million OW) Batman vs. Superman: $425 million (from a $180 million OW) Captain America - Civil War: $375 million (from a $145 million OW) Moana: $325 million (from a $80 million OW) The Secret Lives of Pets: $270 million (from a $70 million OW) X-Men - Apocalypse: $250 million (from a $100 million OW) Ghostbusters: $235 million (from a $65 million OW) Independence Day 2: $225 million (from a $75 million OW) Fantastic Beasts: $215 million (from a $85 million OW)
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^this. And their rumored lineup for the next 5-7 years is looking mostly spectacular: Sapphire Falls CityWalk revamp Kong E-ticket for IOA (think Indy over at DL... on steroids) Volcano Bay Jimmy Fallon to replace Twister (C-ticket similar to Soarin') Hello Kitty to replace Lucy Fast and Furious E-ticket to replace Disaster Ministry of Magic to replace Fear Factor Marvel Superhero Island revamp (including an Avengers E-ticket and Hulk overhaul) Possible Jurassic Park revamp with Gyrospheres D-ticket Nintendoland to replace KidZone Enhancements to Mummy and E.T. (Nintendo isn't supposed to replace E.T.) MIB/Springfield expansion plot Seuss expansion Toon Lagoon overhaul/replacement Lost Continent overhaul/replacement More hotels New entertainment complex Rumored 3rd gate. As for the BO... Ant-Man could have held better. The small opening and lack of family-friendly tentpoles after Pixels should help it get a 2.7x-3x. So it's on its way to $150-170 million DOM. Pretty solid considering the budget. Minions held great considering how low its Friday was. $340-350 million is the likely final DOM. Phenomenal for a spinoff that isn't getting stellar reviews. Anything over DM1's DOM would be great for this. Trainwreck's on its way to $100-120 million DOM. Apatow got his mojo back. Vacation should hurt its legs, unfortunately. Otherwise, I'd say $125-145 million DOM Inside Out and Jurassic World keep holding great. IO should get at least to $340-345 million DOM, while JW should make a serious run for Titanic's $658 million Hopefully, Pixels and Paper Towns can keep up the pace!
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Weekend Prediction thread 9/27-9/29 Play the Derby
mahnamahna replied to Impact's topic in Box Office Derby
7/24-7/26 Pixels: $62.5 million Paper Towns: $31 million Ant-Man: $25 million ($106 million) Minions: $21 million ($254 million) Trainwreck: $19 million ($67 million) Inside Out: $8 million ($320 million) Southpaw: $7 million Jurassic World: $6.5 million ($621 million) Terminator Genysis: $3 million ($85 million) Magic Mike XXL: $3 million ($63 million) 7/31-8/2 Mission Impossible 5: $45 million Pixels: $39 million ($138 million) Vacation: $33 million ($48 million) Paper Towns: $16 million ($62 million) Minions: $14 million ($281 million) Ant-Man: $13 million ($131 million) Trainwreck: $10 million ($86 million) Inside Out: $6.5 million ($332 million) Southpaw: $4.5 million ($15 million) Jurassic World: $4 million ($628 million) 8/7-8/9 The Fantastic Four: $42 million Mission Impossible 5: $26 million ($93 million) Pixels: $24 million ($182 million) Vacation: $21 million ($86 million) Ricki and the Flash: $15.5 million Paper Towns: $9 million ($78 million) Minions: $8 million ($295 million) Trainwreck: $7 million ($98 million) Shaun the Sheep Movie: $6.5 million Ant-Man: $5 million ($140 million) Inside Out: $4.5 million ($339 million) The Gift: $3.5 million 8/14-8/16 Straight Outta Compton: $47 million The Fantastic Four: $24 million ($82 million) Pixels: $17 million ($209 million) The Man From UNCLE: $15 million Vacation: $14 million ($109 million) Mission Impossible 5: $13 million ($115 million) Ricki and the Flash: $9 million ($30 million) Paper Towns: $5.5 million ($87 million) Minions: $5 million ($302 million) Trainwreck: $4.5 million ($105 million) Inside Out: $3.5 million ($344 million) Underdogs: $3 million 8/21-8/23 Straight Outta Compton: $28 million ($91 million) The Fantastic Four: $16 million ($106 million) Pixels: $13 million ($227 million) Sinister 2: $11 million Vacation: $9 million ($123 million) American Ultra: $8 million The Man From UNCLE: $7 million ($26 million) Mission Impossible 5: $7 million ($126 million) Hitman - Agent 47: $6 million Ricki and the Flash: $5.5 million ($38 million) Minions: $3.5 million ($307 million) Paper Towns: $3 million ($91 million) 8/28-8/30 Straight Outta Compton: $17 million ($117 million) We Are Your Friends: $16 million War Room: $12.5 million The Fantastic Four: $11 million ($123 million) Pixels: $10 million ($240 million) Regression: $7.5 million Vacation: $6.5 million ($133 million) Mission Impossible 5: $4.5 million ($133 million) Sinister 2: $4 million ($17 million) American Ultra: $4 million ($14 million) 9/4-9/7 Straight Outta Compton: $14.5 million/$19 million ($143 million) War Room: $13 million/$16.5 million ($34 million) We Are Your Friends: $11 million/$14 million ($35 million) Jane Got a Gun: $10 million/$12 million Pixels: $9.5 million/$12 million ($254 million) The Fantastic Four: $8 million/$9.5 million ($136 million) Vacation: $6 million/$7 million ($143 million) Regression: $5 million/$6 million ($16 million) The Transporter Refueled: $4.5 million/$5.5 million No Escape: $4 million/$5 million ($7 million) -
What's over predicted? Ant-Man at 60m? (Using GotG multi it just crosses the mark) Minions at 54.5? (Not outlandish) Trainwreck at 38? From a 14m Fri, it should get mid to high 30s IO/JW were predicted at 10-12m for this weekend before numbers even came out. I'm definitely not over predicting by an absurd amount
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Summer weekdays are strongest in mid to late July, so 50-55% is more likely. Minions isn't going to insanely recover when Ant-Man and Pixels are gearing up to take some of the family demo. 14 19 15 48 50-52 is more likely, but sub-50 is more likely at this point than 55m-57m. It's not going to hold better than DM2's 2nd weekend which was helped by a deflated OW
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1. Finding Dory: $575m 2. BvS: $475m 3. Rogue One: $380m 4. Cap 3: $355m 5. Moana: $330m 6. ID42: $290m 7. Suicide Squad: $275m 8. Fantastic Beasts: $250m 9. X-Men: Apocalypse - $245m 10. Ghostbusters: $230m