langer

TASM2 nearly didn't break even on the theatrical run which is usually the bar for success. There's also a difference between making some money (after production and marketing costs are paid) and getting an expected return on investment. TASM 2 was even worse on DOM HV compared to TWS (28% under TWS, while it was 23% under for DOM gross). Captain America was able to reach similar gross with 2/3 the budget of TASM2. Anyway, I'm not arguing that it didn't make any money. I'm just arguing that it didn't make enough to be considered a success.

I wouldn't consider a franchise killer to be a success. TASM2 was not a success.

1. BvS : 435M$ 2. CA- CW : 420M$ 3. Deadpool : 355M$ 4. SS : 275M$ 5. X-Men : 200M$ 6. Doctor Strange : 170M$

All Pixar movies since Cars have been #1 on their first week of HV sales. Before that, charts are not available. We can pretty much assume that Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc. and Toy Story 2 were also #1. That leaves A Bug's Life and Toy Story in doubt. Pretty good track record if you ask me.

It's gonna turn a profit at the BO and will boost merchandising sales greatly. Oh...and the writers have obviously a very important story to tell.

The-Numbers has some nice charts which are not accurate figures, but rather extrapolation from official sources to include Walmart sales and others. The publish DVD and Blu Ray charts weekly and usually lag about 5-6 weeks (currently publishing January 10th). each movie also has a Home Video sales section that will show total sales and weekly performance if the movie charted in the top 30 of either format. Figures are updated weekly for all movies, but form time to time, adjustments are made. To repeat what others have said multiple times, The Numbers HV sales are wrong, but they are the best ones we have. As for specific movies: Age of Ultron Man of Steel Captain America 2 - TWS

TFA is doing roughly 1,9X what LOTR - TTT was doing at that point. TTT ended its run in late AUGUST (incredible right? - still only grossed 1M between June and August). Considering TFA went from 3X multi to 1,9X multi in the last month or so, applying a safe 1,5X multi to the remaining run of TTT (9M$), that would put TFA right on 940M$. Any special editions or exclusive Rogue One feature would obviously change this upwards.

Edited some figures in previous post.

I still don't get the big deal about the first one. Nothing really stands out for me about the plot or acting.

1. BvS 2. X-Men Apocalypse 4. Captain America CW 3. Suicide Squad 5. Star Wars Rogue One 6. 10 Cloverfield Lane 7. Independent Day 2 8. Star Trek Beyond 9. Doctor Strange 10. Bourne 5

2016 sequels impact on sales of franchise and reaching milestones. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 1 : 100M$ on DVD from 95M$ (unlikely but possible) Captain America : Civil War - Iron Man 1 : 200M$ combined from 196M$ (possible - 2017 guaranteed) - The Avengers : 250M$ combined from 230M$ (near impossible - likely to happen in 2018-2019) - Avengers - Age of Ultron : 50M$ Blu Ray from 46M$ (nearly guaranteed) - Captain America - The First Avengers : 50M$ DVD from 47M$ (likely) - Captain America - The Winter Soldier : 50M$ Blu Ray from 37M$ (unlikely) X-Men Apocalypse - X-Men - Days of Future Past : 50M$ Blu Ray from 49M$ (guaranteed) - X-Men - The Last Stand : 150M$ combined from 146M$ (likely) - X-Men - The Last Stand : 150M$ DVD from 145M$ (possible but unlikely - likely to reach with next entry) Batman V Superman - Man of Steel : 50M$ DVD from 42M$ (unlikely - likely to reach with Justice League release) - The Dark Knight : 300M$ DVD from 282M$ (unlikely) - The Dark Knight : 50M$ Blu Ray from 33M$ (unlikely - likely to reach with Justice League or new Batman entry) - The Dark Knight Rises : 100M$ Blu Ray from 80M$ (unlikely) Ice Age - Collision Course - Ice Age - Continental Drift : 50M$ DVD from 43M$ (unlikely - likely to reach with 6th entry) Star Trek Beyond - Star Trek (2009) : 200M$ combined from 197M$ (nearly guaranteed) - Star Trek (2009) : 100M$ Blu Ray from 82M$ (unlikely) - Star Trek - Into Darkness : 100M$ combined from 83M$ (unlikely but possible, likely with 4th entry) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles : Out of Shadows - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles : 100M$ combined from 95M$ (likely) Alice Through the Looking Glass - Alice in Wonderland : 100M$ DVD from 83M$ (nearly impossible) Kung Fu Panda 3 - Kung Fu Panda : 150M$ combined from 147M$ (likely) - Kung Fu Panda : 150M$ DVD from 145M$ (unlikely) Star Wars - Rogue One - Star Wars - The Force Awakens : Likely to have an impact, but hard to judge what impact the spin off will generate vs first run of TFA on HV. TFA "guaranteed" to reach 50M$ Blu Ray and 100M$ combined in 2016. Possible 2017 Milestones Guardians of the Galaxy : 50M$ DVD Pirates of the Caribbean - On Stranger Tides : 100M$ combined Cars 2 : 50M$ Blu Ray Transformers : 300M$ DVD Despicable Me : 300M$ combined and 200M$ DVD (might be 2016) Despicable Me 2 : 250M$ combined (might be 2016) Minions : 150M$ combined The Amazing Spider Man 2 : 50M$ combined Rise of the Planet of the Apes : 50M$ DVD Dawn of the Planet of the Apes : 50M$ combined Pitch Perfect : 100M$ DVD The Croods : 50M$ DVD

Really shows the downward trend. Nice chart.

Strong vinyl and CD sales can be argued. CD sales are about 25-35% of what they were in late 90s. The top artists in the US would sell roughly 10-12M CDs on their best albums in 1997-2000 (Just look up Britney Spears, Backstreet Boys, N`Sync, No Doubt, Garth Brooks..etc..). Nowadays, the biggest artists manage about 3-4M in sales. Significant, but definitely lower. I agree with you that my 10 years prediction is probably too catastrophic.

Fully switched? 10 years maybe. It took about 8-10 years for VHS to die after DVD first entered the market. It's been 8-9 years since Blu Ray, but it's not really the same thing. DVD has at least 5 years in the tank, Blu Ray I can see at least 10 years of significant (but declining) sales. Digital online is grabbing market shares from physical every year. At some point in 5-7 years, DVD and Blu Ray might become insignificant compared to 2007-2010. Don't quote me on this, this is me just estimating from declining numbers. I don't know if we'll ever have digital sales numbers like we do for DVD and Blu Ray.

Looking back at 2015 blockbusters predictions... Disclaimer : I didn't know the market was so low compared to previous years. Comments & updates in italic

It's time to look back at some predictions/questions from last year...

Avengers was a Comboquel. Deadpool was a rebootquel. Fantastic Beast will be a Magiquel. The Passion of the Christ was a loonquel. There it is, my best post of 2016. Circa 2016.

Yes it was a "cult" movie.

You're right...it's weird. Let's see how long it takes to tie up those timelines - there's still a 30 year gap to fill between those movies.

So we're back to talking about cults? Didn't we had enough with the Passion and Bruce Almighty talks?

So is Apocalypse a prequel to Deadpool?

You said all MCU movies were sequels from that logic. If GOTG is a sequel because it shares a universe with other MCU movies, then Deadpool is an X-Men sequel because it shares a universe with other X-Men movies. I'm not saying it is, just saying that from that logic, Deadpool would be considered a sequel...semantics...

Then Deadpool would be a sequel from that same logic...

A simple pastafarian looking for the meaning of life....and meatballs.