The Panda

Pretty much I think DGA goes 5/5, The Florida Project really flopped with the guilds (and so I think Dafoe is close to losing his lead as a frontrunner) so Baker won’t make a surprise showing. Further, the only real alternatives are Guadagino (who hasn’t shown up yet), Spielberg (The Post is barely holding on though, so doubtful), or maybe Villeneuve or Scott (in a foxcatcher like nomination) but I’m also doubtful there.

It won’t get snubbed, it may not be winning much but it’s consistently showing up at every precursor

Currently, I have Lady Bird, Three Billboards and Get Out all within a few points of each other with Lady Bird in third. However I do think if something beats Billboards it’s Get Out, it’s a little more showy compared to Lady Bird. And while the Oscars don’t always go for spectacle, they rarely award movies like Lady Bird.

I had a dream a civil war broke out and I was apart of a crew that infiltrated the South and we took out a few bases in Alabama and East Texas. It was so strange because it seemed like it could have been reality. I clued into it being a dream when Wolverine showed up and shot out electric and then teamed up with Thor to chop down some southern racists. And then Arya Stark showed up to infiltrate a southern ship or something and set it ablaze.

Further, I really want Sufjan to win that Oscar but I’ll settle for anything but This is Me. Sadly, I’ve likely cursed myself, just liked I did with writings on the wall.

Writings on the Wall is definitely one of the worst Best Original Song picks of all time, but This is Me is worse.

The movie was bad enough, just imagine the agony of listening to people try and sing along to it

Bad news for Avatar 2!

This is the worst bad take in the history of bad takes.

For original songs released for film in 2017 here’s the ranking 1. Visions of Gideon 2. I Get Overwhelmed 3. Was He Slow? 4. Mystery of Love 5. Remember Me 6. Proud Corazon 7. Un Poco Loco 8. La Llorona 9. Mighty River 10. Evermore Last. This is Me

Sold, I’m there OW.

The Paddington franchise is getting pretty stale. Paddington 3 should definitely take an R rated horror route where Paddington gets rabies and starts rabidly hunting down the denizens of London.

Sound Mixing and Editing are definitely my least confident cats due to there being only 3 real precursors (including Satellite which is minor)

I think it’s fair to remember though that just because in the past DGA has gone 4/5 doesn’t mean they will this year. It’s possible Guadagino, Spielberg or Villeneuve (in a fox catcher like stunt) steal the spot. But none of them are nearly as strong as Peele and Gerwig.

I’d definitely see I, Tonya and The Post first (probably downsizing too) just to spite That One Guy

Take a chance to win a month of Gold membership by participating in the Oscar Nomination prediction contest!

My predicts Best Picture 1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2. The Shape of Water 3. Lady Bird 4. Get Out 5. Dunkirk 6. Call Me By Your Name 7. The Big Sick 8. The Post 9. I, Tonya 10. Darkest Hour Alternate: Molly's Game Best Director 1. Guillermo Del Torro, The Shape of Water 2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk 3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird 4. Jordan Peele, Get Out 5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Alternate: Luca Guadagino, Call Me By Your Name Best Actress 1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards 2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water 3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird 4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya 5. Meryl Streep, The Post Alternate: Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul Actor 1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour 2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name 3. James Franco, The Disaster Artist 4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out 5. Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread Alternate: Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. Supporting Actress 1. Allsion Janney, I, Tonya 2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird 3. Mary J Blige, Mudbound 4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick 5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water Alternate: Hong Chau, Downsizing Supporting Actor 1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project 2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards 3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water 4. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name 5. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World Alternate: Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Original Screenplay 1. Get Out 2. Lady Bird 3. Three Billboards 4. The Shape of Water 5. The Big Sick Alternate: I, Tonya Adapted Screenplay 1. Call Me By Your Name 2. Molly's Game 3. The Disaster Artist 4. Mudbound 5. Logan Alternate: Wonder Cinematography 1. Blade Runner 2049 2. Dunkirk 3. The Shape of Water 4. Darkest Hour 5. Mudbound Alternate: Three Billboards Editing 1. Dunkirk 2. Baby Driver 3. The Shape of Water 4. Blade Runner 2049 5. Three Billboards Alternate: The Post Animated Feature 1. Coco 2. The LEGO Batman Movie 3. Despicable Me 3 4. Loving Vincent 5. The Breadwinner Alternate: The Boss Baby Foreign Feature 1. The Square 2. Loveless 3. In the Fade 4. A Fantastic Woman 5. Foxtrot Alternate: On Body and Soul Documentary Feature 1. Jane 2. City of Ghosts 3. Icarus 4. Chasing Choral 5. Faces Places Alternate: Abascus Production Design 1. The Shape of Water 2. Blade Runner 2049 3. Dunkirk 4. Beauty and the Beast 5. Darkest Hour Alternate: Murder on the Orient Express Costume Design 1. Phantom Thread 2. Beauty and the Beast 3. The Shape of Water 4. I, Tonya 5. Blade Runner 2049 Alternate: Wonder Woman Hair and Makeup Styling 1. Darkest Hour 2. Wonder 3. I, Tonya Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Original Score 1. The Shape of Water 2. Phantom Thread 3. Dunkirk 4. Blade Runner 2049 5. Darkest Hour Alternate: The Post Original Song 1. "Remember Me" from Coco 2. "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman 3. "Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name 4. "Evermore" from Beauty and the Beast 5. "Stand Up for Something" from Marshall Alternate: "Mighty River" from Mudbound Sound Mixing 1. Dunkirk 2. Baby Driver 3. The Shape of Water 4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 5. Wonder Woman Alternate: Blade Runner 2049 Sound Editing 1. Dunkirk 2. Baby Driver 3. Blade Runner 2049 4. The Shape of Water 5. Star Wars the Last Jedi Alternate: War for the Planet of the Apes Visual Effects 1. War for the Planet of the Apes 2. Blade Runner 2049 3. Dunkirk 4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 5. The Shape of Water Alternate: Kong: Skull Island

Since no thread was created, I thought I would. The person who does the best at this contest will get a month of Gold membership paid for by me! If anyone else wants to offer up prizes for second and third that's fine too. Here's the rules and how your predicts will be graded You have until 11:59 Jan 22 CT to make edits to your predictions. If I see a post was edited past the deadline then the ballot is tossed out. Simply post your prediction ballot here. For Best Picture Simply list your 10 predicts for Best Picture and one alternate, you don't need to predict if there'll be 6-10 nominees. However, list them in the order you think is likeliest. Why? If there are 10 BP nominees I will count your 10 picks and your alternate. If there are 7 nominees I will only look at your top 7 nominees and I'll count your 8th spot as your alternate and void 9 through the actual alternate. I'll take the fraction you got right and convert it to a percentage, if your alternate was correct you'll get half a point back. Ex. The nominees are 1. Bright 2. Victoria and Abdul 3. Transformers: The Last Knight 4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 5. A Cure For Wellness 6. Wonder Woman You Predicted 1. Bright 2. Victoria and Abdul 3. Three Billboards 4. Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool 5. Wonder Woman 6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7. A Cure for Wellness 8. Transformers the Last Knight etc. You'd receive 1 point for Bright, 1 point for Victoria, 1 for Wonder Woman and 0.5 for Star Wars. So your score for Best Picture would be 3.5 / 6 = 58.33% For Every Other Category It'll be just like above, just pick 5 nominees and one alternate, I'll add up your correct guesses and give you a point if your alternate is correct. For Total Scoring I'll be adding a 5x weight to the Best Picture predict, so it'll count for the most. I'll be adding a 3x weight to the Director, Actor and Actress predicts I'll be adding a 2x weight to the Supp Actor/Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing I'll be adding a 1.5x weight to Animated, Foreign and Documentary Feature The rest of the cats will have a 1x weight We won't be predicting the shorts categories For the total scoring the formula will be (5(Best Picture Score) + 3(Director Score) + 3(Actor) + 3(Actress) +2(Supporting Actress) + 2(Supporting Actor) + 2(Original Screenplay) + 2(Adapted Screenplay) + 2(Cinematography) + 2(Editing) + Costume Design + Production Design + Hair and Makeup + Original Score + Original Song + Sound Editing + Sound Mixing + Visual Effects + 1.5(Animated Feature) + 1.5(Documentary) + 1.5(Foreign Feature)) / 38.5 Essentially, your score will be a weighted average of your percentage accuracy and so it'll not only be your score but your overall accuracy. The reason for the weights is simply to give higher precedence to the more high profile categories versus the tech categories. Here's a blank ballot

Of course Tele would stan for the wrong Panda movie.

Los Angelas everybody wants to be star. You have to be best and never give up. This is my movie and this is my life. Okay be good.

I know all the Pandas in the industry, and the panda in this movie is literally the worst.

Just go see Pandas twice, dont encourage that faker.

Ugh, I know the parents of the baby panda actor in this movie. They’re so annoying and entitle that kid FLOP 1m OW / 1.5m DOM TOTAL Go see the good Panda movie called Pandas

Somebody’s just jealous they don’t have a big Hollywood movie!

This isn’t just a nature doc though. THIS IS THE CINEMATIC EXPERIENCE OF THE YEAR!