Yeah, Get Out and Lady Bird are both universally liked and benefit by the preferential ballot, so it’d simply come down to which of the two has more passion (and that’s Get Out). Lady Bird isn’t impossible though as of yet, it depends on how the guilds though.
Id be inclined to overlook the BAFTA snub for Lady Bird if it won PGA and then either WGA/SAG. If Three Billboards wins BAFTA + PGA I think it wins, if it’s SAG + BAFTA things are a little more open, and if it only wins one thing (or less) I may be more inclined to think something else is winning.