The Panda

Where's the razzie nominations at?

AW YES WE’LL ACTUALLY HAVE A ROOTABLE TEAM IN THE SUPERBOWL! (Assuming this interception results in a touchdown)

What this movie really needs is Dwayne Johnson to grow monster size and fist fight the mutated animals.

From the Dallas area, so that probably explains it

@WrathOfHan Your predictions are wack, especially Solo.

I’d rather root for a really solid team than a fluke underdog team with a few exceptions. Id root for the Browns for the lol factor, I pity them. I’d root for Houston because I like Houston. And Dallas is my team so I have to root for them whether they suck or are first in their division. Wouldnt root for the Steelers or Eagles ever though. Ew no.

Oops forgot to put the Broncos on there, they’re a solid 10 on the list.

Wasn’t saying I think 750m was going to happen. I was only saying it wouldn’t be a disaster for that number to happen.

My ranking of NFL teams from most-rootable to least rootable 1. Dallas Cowboys 2. Green Bay Packers 3. New England Patriots 4. Houston Texans 5. Los Angelas Rams 6. Cleveland Browns 7. Seattle Seahawks 8. Arizona Cardinals 9. Minnesota Vikings 10. Denver Broncos 11. Kansas City Chiefs 12. Carolina Panthers 13. New Orleans Saints 14. Cincinnatti Bengals 15. Oakland Raiders 16. Atlanta Falcons 17. Baltimore Ravens 18. Buffalo Bills 19. Indianapolis Colts 20. New York Jets 21. Chicago Bears 22. San Francisco 49ers 23. Tennessee Titans 24. Miami Dolphins 25. Jacksonville Jaguars 26. Detroit Lions 27. Los Angelas Chargers 28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29. Washington Redskins 30. New York Giants 31 Pittsburgh Steelers 32. Philadelphia Eagles

Lol, I hope the Vikings win. I don’t want to root for the Jags but I couldn’t possibly root for the Eagles. Maybe Brady can pull a comeback.

1. Wasn’t my prediction 2. 500m is not the worst it could do in China

Honestly, this movie could pull 750m WW and things would still be well and good.

I haven’t seen I, Tonya but I know that’s a lie right there.

I’d say frontrunner but no lock for a win. And I’d bet on it winning DGA but I don’t think there’s any reason to think it’s 100% locked. I wouldn’t be shocked if Gerwig, McDonagh or Nolan pulled an upset (However I would be surprised).

No, that’d mean WGA went SOW (and even then, iffy because TB isn’t eligible there). I do think a WGA and DGA win puts it in frontrunner status.

Not saying SoW can’t win, I think it’s a possibility. But I think it’s silly to toss aside that fact when considering a prediction. That’s the largest base of academy voters, of course you need their support to win, unless every other branch universally goes SoW.

Eh, it’s less about statistics and more about a cumulation of precursors. I’d be more willing to forgive a SAG miss if there weren’t three other solid contenders. When a race is this close, acting branch support will matter a lot.

If SoW had a SAG nod it’d be the frontrunner, no SAG nod is troublesome

It doesn’t have to do with winning the SAG, it has to do with a nomination. A nomination shows broad support, a win shows some passion. Broad support matters more for preferential ballot.

Except that BFCA trend is pretty irrelevant. Sure, it’s a trend but BFCA doesn’t have major bearing on how the academy will vote. Missing an easy SAG nod (especially when Big Sick could easily have traded for Shape of Water) is a bigger issue imo than missing a BFCA win or even missing a BAFTA nod. I do think missing the BAFTA nod is a troubling sign, but there’s more precedence of movies missing a BAFTA nod and winning then SAG. Plus, more SAG voters are academy voters than BAFTA voters. Plus, something to consider with PGA. You can’t tell how close those preferential ballots won. It could be a 2015 case where Big Short likely barey edged out a win. If the full PGA is behind SoW then it’s a big factor, but if it’s only a slim majority (through the perefential ballot too, at that) then it’s not a secure spot for it. I think we’ll be able to gage more if SoW picks up a few big wins like BAFTA, DGA (which I’m betting on, but wouldn’t say is a guarantee), WGA or ACE. It probably needs at least two more ‘big’ wins to be in a frontrunner position. That being said, I wouldn’t count out either four, and I wouldn’t say any of them are in a comfortable win position.

Except in each of those cases they lost. Id actually say SoW is the least likely to break that stat (along with Revenant) simply because at least LLL sand Gravity weren’t ensemble movies. Missing Best Ensemble as a very ensemble centric movie is a troubling sign for actor branch support. If anything, I think PGA and DGA are slowly becoming less sure sign indicators of a frontrunner.

Eh, I think getting a SAG nod trumps a PGA win. There’s no really clear frontrunner. If I had to guess, my order would be 1. Three Billboards - 30% 2. Lady Bird - 25% 3. Get Out - 25% 4. Shape of Water - 20%

Missing the SAG ensemble nod as an ensemble indicates the acting branch prefers Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards and the Big Sick. Means SoW will be 5 or 6 on their preferential ballots which won’t edge it over contenders like Three Billboards, Get Out or Lady Bird. I think I’d still place SoW fourth, but give it above a 5% probability of winning it all. Maybe 15-20%, with the other three front runners remaining around 30% likelihood.

I definitely think Del Torro takes Director, but I don’t think Shape of Water wins BP. Your movie needs acting branch support to win, and The Shape of Water missed an ensemble nod that should have been easy.

I was never clamoring TB as a strong frontrunner, or anything else really. It’s a pretty open race. Billboards just slightly had the most going for it. If anything this could turn into a 2015 case where the SAG winner (Spotlight) takes the Oscar. If the SAG winner is Lady Bird or Get Out it’d also be continuing the trend of a consensus critic choice winning.