The Panda

1. The Disaster Artist 2. The Shape of Water 3. The Post 4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 5. Call Me by Your Name 6. Phantom Thread 7. Deadpool 2 8. I, Tonya 9. The Incredibles 2 10. Avengers: Infinity War

Ronan Streep McDormand Robbie Hawkins (in that order) are the likely actress noms. If somebody else starts getting awards attention, id take out Hawkins.

Around a 26m weekend would be good for Coco, that's a better drop than Moana and Frozen. Coco could possibly push past Moana domestic if it has great drops like that.

50k is pretty weak for SOW, no?

I thinj Mortal Engines can sell itself similar to something like The Hunger Games, Stranger Things or IT. All were driven by younger audiences and had sci-if/fantasy elements to them. It just needs to have a strong trailer, and something it can use as a hook.

Olaf's Great Adventure is definitely in the running for worst picture of the year.

23m is a decent drop for Coco coming off of Thanksgiving.

Definitely see it before so you can experience the pain.

But did you not know? I AM The Panda cheese Panda

It's time for the Pandas.... TO END

I think Chalamet is starting to look like a winner over Oldman. Im curious if Oldman will even get nominated rn. Darkest Hour isnt getting much love.

I definitely think Haddish gets in now that she's getting some critical love. I also think Blige could sneak in as well.

Here are my updated predicts, I'm (mostly) basing these off of the precursor model I am making for this awards season Best Picture Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Adapted Screenplay Original Screenplay Cinematography Editing Animated Film Production Design Costume Design Hair and Makeup Score Original Song Sound Editing Sound Mixing VFX

I think I, Tonya, Phantom Thread and The Disaster Artist are all close to a nomination. They're getting a fair amount of love so far. I also think Franco is going to get a BA nom. If the Academy doesn't go for Oldman, then it's a fairly open race between him, Chalamet and Hanks. (As of now, we'll get a clearer picture when SAG comes in. If they snub Darkest Hour, then it's out, as acting noms are its strongest bets)

I'll wait until SAGs and Globes but Shape of Water has dropped to my tenth slot for now. It hasn't gotten any recognition despite glowing reviews

Oh boy, the last two were my favorite movies, I'm so excited.

Lol I think I meant Hayek from Beatriz at Dinner?

THE COMPLICATED LEGACY OF THE PANDA WHO WAS REALLY GOOD AT SEX "The Panda who saved all Pandas was, yes, ridiculously good at sex." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-complicated-legacy-of-a-panda-who-was-really-good-at-sex/?ex_cid=538fb

I'm working on trying to make a weighted model for precursors to see if I can use it to make an accurate predictor for the Oscars. Currently (given that there's only been three precursors with Gotham, Spirits and NBR) Overall I would have these in awards contention (the ranked ones having what I'd consider a significant advantage) Call Me By Your Name Get Out Lady Bird The Florida Project The Post The Disaster Artist Phantom Thread I, Tonya The Rider Good Time Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri Dunkirk Logan Downsizing Baby Driver Wonder Woman Columbus Mudbound Beach Rats Killing of the Sacred Deer The Big Sick Marjorie Prime The Model currently has Best Actress Meryl Streep Saorise Ronan Margot Robbie Frances McDormand Beatriz Hayek Shinobu Terajima Best Actor Timothee Chalamet Tom Hanks James Franco Daniel Kaluuya Harris Dickinson Robert Pattinson Director Peele, Get Out Gerwig, Lady Bird Baker, The Florida Project Carpigna, A Ciambra Guadadigno, Call Me By Your Name Safdie, Good Time Zhao, The Rider Supporting Actor: Dafoe Supporting Actress: Metcalf Original Screenplay: Phantom Thread Adapted Screenplay: The Disaster Artist I'll update it more as more precursors come in, I figure the more precursors that happen the more refined the predicts will become. I'm basing the weight I give an award based on the historical correlation to the Oscars, and if there's a direct relationship (such as SAG or PGA), if it's a win or a nom, etc. Currently it's still skewed by a movie overperforming in one awards branch due to only being three I am measuring rn.

NBR having a poor match up rating doesn't mean the Post is jinxed, especially since they usually go for certain studios and didn't go for WB with the Post.

Given the subject matter, I reckon The Futurist's not blabbering on nonsense at all. Nope.

Just get reserved seating and show up late if you don't want to see trailers?

Ronan's definitely in over them given Lady Bird's reception. I think Ronan's the only one who could give McDormand a run for her money.

So, I've come to terms with something recently. I figured here would be safer place to come out about it. I'm bi, I realized I've found both genders attractive since elementary, I just kind of pushed it into the back of my head and ignored it since recently.