The Panda
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Everything posted by The Panda
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Yeah, I'm not planning on seeing the movie, but this forum isn't the target audience for Cars, of course we don't notice the buzz.
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Coco | Pixar / Lee Unkrich | New attraction announced at DCA
The Panda replied to AniNate's topic in Box Office Discussion
Yeah I'm not concerned with the runtime (not to forget that it's unlikely to have an official runtime yet). Inside Out was great and it was a short movie, Zootopia was great and it was a longer animation. The trailer for Coco looks great. I also think Frozen will help its box office. -
This is a good number but also remember Monday was deflated. I also wouldn't freak out (like last week) when it drops 30% tomorrow. Should have a solid weekend hold, possibly a sub-40% drop.
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I don't think critical reception will matter for OW. But yeah, I really think they'll need to put Wonder Woman front in center for Justice League marketing.
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I'll go ahead and say there's a 0.001% chance Homecoming opens to 180m+. Im not expecting Homecoming to go under TASM2 btw, but if the movie isn't good and opens on a mediocre level, it could go that low. My predict is around 235 - 245m DOM for Homecoming.
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Decent reviews for a Pixar movie means it's a bad movie in my books. Thankfully we'll get Coco in November to make up for this.
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180m DOM total is much more likely than 180m OW.
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I'm not convinced Homecoming will even open over 100m. I think there's too much Spidey burnout, and it's not really positioned well, being sandwiched between various tentpoles. Im personally going under TASM for Homecoming.
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Wow, that's an incredible drop. Batman Begins really might be a good comparison when it comes to drops, which is crazy because that was over 10 years ago.
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Lol, I tanked because of that SOTM. Plus losing QOTW after week 2.
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I think I originally went with 42% but I thought "No way a comic book movie drops less than 50% these days", so I slightly bumped it.
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I'm upset. For SOTM I put a minimum of 45% drop and this is 44.6% drop... Im going to lose the 100% bonus by 0.4%.
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Wow! We're looking at a 56m+ weekend with that Saturday number.
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As much as I want Coco to do well, that sounds reasonable.
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Plus, All Eyez on Me won't necessarily open to #1 that weekend even if it's above WW. Cars 3 could potentially open in the 50-60m range, which is a completely different target. And yeah, it's always more fun to pick a fanboy film as your target because it raises hairs. It's why I made my BATB club over TDK instead of 500m (and in hindsight I should have stuck with 500m).
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It also reminds me a bit of Batman Begins (only with an inflated OW). A well-received origin film coming off of mixed predecessors. Either way, I can see WW becoming the new face of the DCEU, the way Iron Man is for Marvel.
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Even then, that'd boost it to 36m or so (assuming a 40% Friday drop and Sat increase). However, WW is going to depend on if it's really going to be dad's movie choice or not. San Andreas, JW and MoS were all male-centric tentpoles. WW was split about 50/50 on OW, however the female demo increases later into the movie's run, so leaning female centric. Staying flat is the optimistic but possible, I'd probably go with a minimal drop though.
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This. Countdowns are community service. Just do the math 25 minutes or so for average write up and it gets 10 likes = 0.4 likes a minute 1 minute for Coolio to post some stupid meme and it gets 20 likes = 20 likes a minute It's income inequality. We need to break up the big banks.
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Id wait for official weekend numbers before predicting next weekend. However, I could see it having a sub-40% drop. Something like Fri: 9.5m (-40% from this Friday) Sat: 13.3m (+40%) Sun: 12.4m (-7%) Wknd: 35.2m
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People overrate how many likes you get with countdowns tbh. The easiest way to get likes is post some snarky comment about Trump or Tele's Age/BO Predictions or something.
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A low 50% to sub 50% drop pretty much guarantees at least a 3x multi. First weekend drop is usually the worst for comic book films (with exceptions to late in the run when it's finally pulled from theaters) Plus, WW is uniquely pulling an older and female audience, which tend to mean stronger legs. I think it's possible for WW to push its way over BvS and be the highest grossing DCEU film if its legs keep going.
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But I have 20k+ likes. All that means is that I don't shit post (as much).
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What are you inferring about me???
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Wonder Woman's range is pretty much Min: 50m (-52%) Max: 56.3m (-46%) Id probably go with around 52-53m
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I don't see any comic book movie getting nominated. If by some chance one did, I'd probably bet on Logan. However, Wonder Woman is progressive and the first female superhero movie. I can see it getting a few token tech noms, maybe even a win.
