The Panda

My new Oscar Nom/wins predicts Best Picture 1.La La Land 2.Manchester by the Sea 3.Moonlight 4.Hell or High Water 5.Arrival 6.Fences 7.Hacksaw Ridge (In danger of missing) 8.Silence 9.Hidden Figures ALT - Jackie, Lion Director 1.Damien Chazelle - La La Land 2.Barry Jenkins - Moonlight 3.Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea 4.Denis Villeneuve - Arrival (In danger of missing) 5.Martin Scorsese - Silence ALT - David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water Actress 1.Emma Stone - La La Land 2.Natalie Portman - Jackie 3.Ruth Negga - Loving 4.Amy Adams - Arrival (In danger of missing) 5.Taraj B. Henson - Hidden Figures Actor 1.Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea 2.Denzel Washington - Fences 3.Ryan Gosling - La La Land 4.Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge (In danger of missing) 5.Chris Pine - Hell or High Water Supporting Actress 1.Viola Davis - Fences 2.Naomie Harris - Moonlight 3.Michelle Wiliiams - Manchester by the Sea (In danger of missing) 4.Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures 5.Nicole Kidman - Lion Supporting Actor 1.Mahershala Ali - Moonlight 2.Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water 3.Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea (In danger of missing) 4.Dev Patel - Lion 5.Issei Ogata - Silence Adapted Screenplay 1.Moonlight 2.Fences 3.Arrival (In danger of missing) 4.Silence 5.Hidden Figures Original Screenplay 1.Hell or High Water 2.Manchester by the Sea 3.La La Land (In danger of missing) 4.Captain Fantastic 5.Jackie Cinematography 1.La La Land 2.Moonlight 3.Arrival (In danger of missing) 4.Silence 5.Hacksaw Ridge Costume Design 1.La La Land 2.Jackie 3.Silence 4.Florence Foster Jenkins (In danger of missing) 5.Hidden Figures Editing 1.La La Land 2.Moonlight 3.Arrival (In danger of missing) 4.Hacksaw Ridge 5.Silence Makeup/Hairstyling 1.Florence Foster Jenkins (In danger of missing) 2.Star Trek Beyond 3.Deadpool Production Design 1.La La Land (In danger of missing) 2.Arrival 3.Jackie 4.Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 5.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Score 1. La La Land 2.Moonlight (In danger of missing) 3.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 4.The BFG 5.Hell or High Water Original Song 1. City of Stars - La La Land 2.How Far I'll Go - Moana 3.Audition (Fools Who Dream) - La La Land (In danger of missing) 4.Runnin' - Hidden Figures 5.Drive it Like You Stole It - Sing Street Sound Editing 1.Hacksaw Ridge 2.La La Land 3.Arrival 4.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (In danger of missing) 5.Deepwater Horizon Sound Mixing 1.La La Land 2.Hacksaw Ridge 3.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (In danger of missing) 4.Arrival 5.The Jungle Book Visual Effects 1.Arrival 2.The Jungle Book 3.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 4.Doctor Strange (In danger of missing) 5.Deepwater Horizon Animated Feature 1.Zootopia 2.Kubo and the Two Strings 3.Moana 4.The Red Turtle (In danger of missing) 5.Your Name Nom Count La La Land - 14 (BP, BD, BAs, BA, OS, C, CD, FE, PD, OSc, OSo 2x, SE, SM) Arrival - 10 (BP, BD, BAs, AS, C, FE, PD, SE, SM, VFX) Moonlight - 8 (BP, BD, SAs , SA, AS, C, FE, OSc) Silence - 7 (BP, BD, SA, AS, C, CD, FE) Manchester by the Sea - 6 (BP, BD, BA, SAs, SA, OS) Hacksaw Ridge - 6 (BP, BA, C, FE, SE, SM) Hidden Figures - 6 (BP, BAs, SAs, AS, CD, OSo) Hell or High Water - 5 (BP, BA, SA, OS, OSc) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 5 (PD, OSc , SE, SM, VFX) Fences - 4 (BP, BA, SAs, AS) Jackie - 4 (BAs, OS, CD, PD) Lion - 2 (SAs , SA) Florence Foster Jenkins - 2 (CD, MHS) The Jungle Book - 2 (SM, VFX) Moana - 2 (OSo, AF) Deepwater Horizon - 2 (SE, VFX) Loving - 1 (BAs) Captain Fantastic - 1 (OS) Deadpool - 1 (MHS) Star Trek Beyond - 1 (MHS) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 1 (PD) The BFG - 1 (OSc) Sing Street - 1 (OSo) Doctor Strange - 1 (VFX) Zootopia - 1 (AF) Kubo and the Two Strings - 1 (AF) The Red Turtle - 1 (AF) Your Name - 1 (AF) Win Count La La Land - 10 (BP, BD, BAs, C, CD, FE, PD, OSc, OSo, SM) Moonlight - 2 (SA, AS) Manchester by the Sea - 1 (BA) Fences - 1 (SAs) Hell or High Water - 1 (OS) Florence Foster Jenkins - 1 (MHS) Hacksaw Ridge - 1 (SE) Arrival - 1 (VFX) Zootopia - 1 (AF)

Into the Forest - $9,995

I believe they needed something like 17.5m - 20m from the 31st in order to make 3b in the calendar year. So they'll wind up just short.

So I guess Disney is going to miss the 3b DOM mark?

Arguing that it has little to no effect isn't equivalent to endorsing pirating. Also, the director isn't in charge of the economic aspect of the movie at all.

I'd be interested about seeing the data on it. As my first thought was that the box office effect is likely minimal, but I did think there could be a potential impact on the home video market (including things like channel bids). But I am still skeptical to blame it all on piracy. TV Ratings in general have also been dropping, which is another potential reason for why those channels can no longer bid as much as they used to. I'm also skeptical that piracy is the reason for the drop in cable subscriptions and overall TV ratings. I think it's more likely that there are now cheaper alternatives to get your TV Shows (Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, to an extent HBOGo), and so with as costly as Cable subscriptions are, people are cutting them in favor of those cheaper programs. Piracy, would likely have some effect, but not to the extent where I think studios can change the blame to it. Anecdotally, I know a few people that pirate, but on the other hand nearly everybody I know uses a program like Netflix, Hulu, HBOGo, Amazon Prime, etc. Piracy is a blackmarket, and blackmarkets are always going to exist. I think it's a hopeless effort to try and shame people out of using them. It'd be much more efficient for a studio to adjust to the new state of the market (that is a streaming based one) when it comes to home video and TV and provide proper incentives to use them (such as providing more streaming options), then to try and blame piracy for their problems and shut their eyes and ears on why their channels aren't doing as well as they used to.

I think trying to discuss the moral aspect of this is rather pointless. People obviously have two rather strong opinions on it. Weirdly I'm on the in-between, that I understand why people pirate, I just prefer not to do it myself and prefer to support theater going. I don't really buy blu-rays though, anymore, pretty much I just stream my movies off of Netflix, HBOGo, or AmazonPrime (and rent off of Amazon). I think there's a better discussion to be had on what effect does piracy play on the box office and home video (which my argument is minimal for box office, and most likely a decent bit for home video). But most people seem to only really care about whether it's right or wrong.

I wasn't arguing "oh it's fine, and not a problem for studios at all." I'm saying I think the box office effect is fairly minimal. And if any market is hurting from it, it's home video markets (but also, I don't think piracy is what killed DVD/Blu-Ray sales). The Movie Theater likely isn't going away any time soon. It's something to do to get out of the house, people like going every once and a while to see something with the family or friends. Stagnation in ticket sales likely comes from cheaper home alternatives as a whole. Before Netflix and streaming became prevalent. It was, in general, more expensive/equally as expensive to buy a movie as it was to just go to the theaters. Not to mention, if you wanted to rent something, you still had to get in your car and drive over to the nearest blockbuster. There were also movies playing on TV, but those options too were fairly limited. The demographic mainly causing the stagnation in ticket sales isn't people who pirate. It's people who just wanted to watch a new movie, and don't want to bother to get out of the house to either go to the theaters or buy/rent a DVD. Netflix is convenient, and it's something that doesn't kill moviegoing, but probably makes it less frequent. I just haven't seen a compelling argument to show how piracy has been the cause for stagnating ticket sales, at least domestically. Piracy isn't something that's all that new, maybe it's a little more prevalent, but that could also be because of expanding overseas movie markets. As American movies become more popular in countries like China, I could see piracy of them becoming more popular too. Black markets exist for a lot of goods, and I can't recall a case where one was responsible for the death of one. Especially when I'd reckon the majority of your core theater going audience doesn't pirate anyways. Now if you want to talk about how piracy is affecting the home video market, find data on streaming sales, look at DVD/blu-ray sales (which are both becoming outdated now), and take into account things like Netflix and maybe you'll see a dent. Maybe not. (I'd think that streaming rentals and Netflix are the major reason for home video sales dropping, but I can see piracy having an effect as well) Now, I'm not trying to argue that piracy is morally right or wrong. My preference is not to pirate, and to go to the theaters. I'm just saying that I believe piracy is overall irrelevant in the long run for a movie studio being profitable. It's an excuse and shows that movie studios don't actually understand why ticket sales have stagnated, which means you won't see a rebound until they actually do. (I also don't think theaters are in risk of dying off, right now)

If you want to make sure you can go early, just pick a date and do it that date every year. I've done mine on December 30th every year since I started doing it, so it's practically my reserved date now.

I have Disney missing the 3b mark by about 1.5m

Aren't we still getting both anyways?

I'd agree with this. Most pirate copies of new releases suck until a few months after anyways, but I think you can really see a hit in the Home Video market (I'm not sure what the sales for streaming are, so that's another factor you have to take in). Also, you have to take into consideration that the demographic of people that pirate are specific. Going off of the 10 most pirated movies of 2015, the main demographic of people that pirate are the same demographic that watch movies like Interstellar, Furious 7, Age of Ultron, Jurassic World, etc. In other words, I'm making the assumption that it's your reddit demographic, primarily. Obviously, another large amount are overseas audiences who might not be able to get ahold of the movie as easily. The movies that are being pirated the most are already making quite a large hall at the box office, would they make more without pirating? Maybe. But I doubt pirating was making Universal lose sleep over Furious 7's box office performance. I'd argue that the market that is actually being hurt by pirating is your DVD/Blu-Ray market. I think if studios want to beat pirating, they simply need to offer a better alternative to pirating. As for the Box Office, I don't see why ticket price inflation would be caused by pirating. Maybe they're correlated, but it's a flawed argument to say ticket prices are rising because piracy (in fact, it's just as easy to argue the inverse. Piracy is rising because ticket prices are increasing). If I am a studio/movie theater, and I see that piracy is affecting theater attendance, why would I raise ticket prices? That would indicate a decrease in the demand for movie tickets, and so it'd be counterintuitive to raise prices, as that'd just lead to lower ticket sales. If piracy is actually affecting the box office, then studios and theaters need to find ways to make movie going either more desirable (such as the luxury loungers at cinemark), cheaper (such as discount tuesdays), or both. But I'd reckon ticket prices are going up because of overall market inflation, not because of piracy, piracy would not make sense.

BTW, just a reminder I'll put a #x if a movie is given a FYC more than once, so feel free to FYC something somebody already has.

Anecdotal, but I know somebody who got up at 6am to drive to DFW just to make a 1pm showing of La La Land and then drive back.

For Your Consideration Hunt for the Wilderpeople Best Picture, Best Director (Taika Waititi), Best Actor (Sam Neill), Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Comedy Feature, Best Overlooked Feature, Best Hero (Ricky Baker) Hell or High Water Best Picture, Best Director (David Mackenzie), Best Ensemble, Best Actor (Chris Pine), Best Supporting Actor (Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster), Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Soundtrack Deadpool Best Picture, Best Actor (Ryan Reynolds), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup/Hairstyling, Best Soundtrack, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Best Comedy Feature, Best Hero (Deadpool), Best Villain (Francis), Most Impressive Box Office Run La La Land Best Picture, Best Director (Damien Chazelle), Best Actor (Ryan Gosling), Best Actress (Emma Stone), Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Original Songs (Another Day of Sun, Someone in the Crowd, Lovely Nights, City of Stars, Start a Fire, Audition (The Fools Who Dream), Best Sound Arrival Best Picture, Best Director (Denis Villeneuve), Best Actress (Amy Adams), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Best Hero (Dr. Louise Baker) Moonlight Best Picture, Best Director (Barry Jenkins), Best Ensemble, Best Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), Best Supporting Actress (Naomie Harris), Best Adapted/Original Screenplay (whichever we classify it as), Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, Most Overlooked Feature The Witch Best Picture, Best Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy), Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Horror Feature, Best Hero (Tomilson) Fences Best Picture, Best Ensemble, Best Actor (Denzel Washington), Best Supporting Actor (Stephen Henderson), Best Supporting Actress (Viola Davis), Best Adapted Screenplay The Edge of Seventeen Best Picture, Best Ensemble, Best Actress (Hailee Steinfeld), Best Supporting Actor (Woody Harrelson), Best Original Screenplay, Best Soundtrack, Best Comedy Feature, Best Overlooked Feature, Best Hero (Nadine), Most Disappointing Box Office Run Eye in the Sky Best Picture, Best Actress (Helen Mirren), Best Supporting Actor (Alan Rickman), Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Overlooked Feature Best Forum Thread (Look at page 84 - 91 for the best part) EDITED to add a few more Zootopia Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Best Voice Performance (Jason Bateman and Ginnifer Goodwin), Animated Feature, Comedy Feature, Hero (Judy Hopps), Most Impressive Box Office Run Kubo and the Two Strings Best Picture, Voice Performance (Matthew McCounoughey, Charlize Theron, and Rooney Mara), Production Design, Original Score, Visual Effects, Animated Feature, Hero (Kubo), Villain (The Sisters), Most Disappointing Box Office Run Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Voice / Motion Capture Performance (Alan Tyduk), Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score, Sound, Visual Effects, Hero (Jeyn Erso), Villain (Krennick), Most Impressive Box Office Run Moana Best Picture, Best Voice / Motion Capture Performance (Auli'i Cravalho and Dwayne Johnson), Original Score, Original Song (You're Welcome, How Far I'll Go, We Know the Way), Animated Feature, Hero (Moana) Hacksaw Ridge Best Picture, Best Ensemble, Best Actor (Andrew Garfield), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, Visual Effects, Hero (Desmond Doss) Here are some category specific FYCs Best Actor Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea Ryan Gosling, The Nice Guys Best Actress Mary Elizabeth Winstead, 10 Cloverfield Lane Best Supporting Actor John Goodman, 10 Cloverfield Lane Best Supporting Actress Angourie Rice, The Nice Guys Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea Voice / Motion Capture Performance Toby Kebbel, Warcraft Ellen Degenerous, Finding Dory Idris Elba, The Jungle Book Bill Hader, Sausage Party Production Design Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Costume Design Love and Friendship Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Hail, Caesar! Makeup and Hairstyling Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Star Trek Beyond Original Score Finding Dory The BFG Original Song Drive it Like You Stole It, Sing Street The Great Beyond, Sausage Party I'm So Humble, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Soundtrack Sing Street Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Sound Star Trek Beyond The Jungle Book Visual Effects The Jungle Book Animated Feature Sausage Party Finding Dory The Little Prince Comedy Feature Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Sausage Party Horror Feature 10 Cloverfield Lane The Shallows Best Hero Mowgli, The Jungle Book Grom Hellscream, Warcraft Best Villain Shere Khan, The Jungle Book Howard, 10 Cloverfield Lane Zach Snyder, Batman v Superman Worst Picture 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi Independence Day: Resurgence Batman v Superman Suicide Squad Nine Lives Best TV Drama Game of Thrones Stranger Things

#Jealous

Arrival not getting released there is a tragedy for sure.

So I can have 100% accuracy, next Sunday I should start mine, but do it weekend by weekend. Also I should only do one a week. I wouldn't be wrong once, for sure.

FYC Best WTF Ethan Hunt Moment Ethan (quoting That One Guy): I swear if you steal all of my top three I will beat your ass TOG: Now I'm more tempted to put it as #3. Ethan: You enjoy the idea of me beating your ass? TOG: Eh, I can handle you beating my ass. If you begin to GRAB it though... Ethan: You're too young for that TOG: Bitch, I'm at the age of consent in 4 months . Happened here on page 5.

Lol WTF is happening. Im making this my FYC for WTF Ethan Hunt moment at the BOFFYS.

Ethan's growing up, he's put away the Transformers and is now liking grown up movies. I'm so proud, I could cry.

Also in case anybody wanted to know my worst movies of the year they were 1.13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi 2.Independence Day: Resurgence 3.Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 4.Suicide Squad 5.Assassin's Creed 6.Norm of the North 7.The Darkness 8.The Choice 9.Dirty Grandpa 10.Nine Lives

Here's my full list and winners BEST PICTURE 1. La La Land 2. Arrival 3. Deadpool 4. Hunt for the Wilderpeople 5. Hell or High Water 6. Zootopia 7. Moonlight 8. Kubo and the Two Strings 9. The Witch 10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 11. Fences 12. The Edge of Seventeen 13. Moana 14. Hacksaw Ridge 15. Eye in the Sky 16. The Nice Guys 17. Finding Dory 18. 10 Cloverfield Lane 19. Manchester by the Sea 20. The Little Prince THE HONORARY GOLDEN BAMBOO STICK Game of Thrones (Season 6): Episode 9 - Battle of the Bastards and Episode 10 - The Winds of Winter BEST DIRECTOR 1. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival 2. Damien Chazelle, La La Land 3. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water 4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight 5. Taika Waititi, Hunt for the Wilderpeople 6. Robert Eggers, The Witch BEST ENSEMBLE 1. Moonlight 2. Fences 3. Hell or High Water 4. Hunt for the Wilderpeople 5. Manchester by the Sea 6. The Edge of Seventeen BEST ACTOR 1. Denzel Washington, Fences 2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea 3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land and The Nice Guys 4. Chris Pine, Hell or High Water 5. Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 6. Sam Neill, Hunt for the Wilderpeople BEST ACTRESS 1. Emma Stone, La La Land 2. Anya-Taylor Joy, The Witch 3. Amy Adams, Arrival 4. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen 5. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky 6. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, 10 Cloverfield Lane BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMER 1. Viola Davis, Fences 2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight 3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water 4. Naomie Harris, Moonlight 5. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water 6. Angourie Rice, The Nice Guys BEST SCREENPLAY 1. Arrival 2. Fences 3. Hunt for the Wilderpeople 4. Hell or High Water 5. La La Land 6. Zootopia BEST USE OF MUSIC 1. La La Land 2. Moana 3. The Witch 4. Moonlight 5. Kubo and the Two Strings 6. Hell or High Water BEST TECHNICAL WORK 1. La La Land 2. Arrival 3. Moonlight 4. Hacksaw Ridge 5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 6. Kubo and the Two Strings BEST PRODUCTION WORK 1. La La Land 2. The Witch 3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 4. Hacksaw Ridge 5. Deadpool 6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Revealed my favorite movie of the year, for any of those interested!

Edit: Meant for this to be in a different thread.