Quigley

True, it's far from a given. But the first one opened in November and I would say that the summer is a more lucrative period in general, so it is possible. North America will clearly have one of the biggest boosts. For other countries, it could be anynoe's guess.

OS without China Zootopia made $447M -> incl China it's $683M Coco made $408M -> incl China it's $597M Finding Dory made $504M -> incl China it's $542M Notice how these numbers are turned on their heads when adding China. It really does boil down to this single market and I would say that Incredibles 2 has the capacity to earn as much as Dory everywhere else. As for China, it really is an unknown but $600M is not out of the question or overoptimistic, in my opinion. Of course, something around $500M could be equally likely. We'll see.

Where on Earth are you guys getting these $680M+ forecasts? The film will be lucky to cross $670M...

The first Incredibles made $2.4M in China in 2004. The total box office market is now about 45-50 times bigger. The Incredibles 2 should therefore earn at least $110M to match the market share of its predecessor. Could it beat Coco though? . https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/incredibles-2-lands-lucrative-late-june-china-release-date-1115653

The first Incredibles made $2.4M in China in 2004. The total box office market is now about 45-50 times bigger. The Incredibles 2 should therefore earn at least $110M to match the market share of its predecessor. Could it beat Coco though? https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/incredibles-2-lands-lucrative-late-june-china-release-date-1115653

Yeah, I agree with Fake. It would be surprising if it stayed above $30M, but somewhere between $25M and $30M makes sense.

The first Deadpool opened in some countries on its second weekend: South Korea, Spain, Italy, UAE, Ecuador, Greece and a few others. Removing these gives a $62.26M second weekend, which is of course still better than DP2's $56.3M second weekend. Massive drop for DP2. It makes no sense to claim that Solo affected it. There have been softer drops before in the face of much bigger openers.

If that was true, then the number under "Gross-to-Date" on this page: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&id=untitledhansolostarwarsanthologyfilm.htm wouldn't be $63.1M but $69.7M. $63.1M is the amount of money it made up to Sunday including all previews in all countries. $69.7M includes Monday.

The same page (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=untitledhansolostarwarsanthologyfilm.htm) says that Solo made $63.1M on its opening weekend, so clearly the Deadline number of $68.2M was wrong. WW OW: $147.5M

Weekend 24–27/05/2018 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % change from last weekend Total admissions (up to Sunday) Monday admissions Week 1 Deadpool 2 28,313 -65.8% 161,021 5,173 2 2 Solo: A Star Wars Story 21,325 – 21,325 3,769 1 3 The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature 3,748 -9.9% 15,380 1,056 3 4 Leisure Seeker [English-language French–Italian] 3,715 – 3,715 1,047 1 5 Avengers: Infinity War 3,157 -65.2% 356,256 799 5 6 Taxi 5 [French] 2,359 – 2,359 640 1 7 D'après une histoire vraie [French] 2,012 – 2,012 431 1 8 Terminal [English-language Hungarian–British] 1,662 – 1,662 367 1 9 Ghostland [English-language Canadian–French] 835 -63.3% 12,772 205 3 10 Les as de la jungle [French] 739 -24.0% 15,829 226 5 Source: http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/4032/box-office-i-epimonh-tou-deadpool http://flix.gr/news/box-office-24052018.html Even worse than the rest of the world, 'Solo' was a complete disaster in Greece, despite the holiday. The weekend figure makes this film a complete dud by all measures. It opened about 5 times lower than 'The Last Jedi' and 3 times lower than 'Rogue One. 'The Boss Baby' opened higher than it (23,936 admissions). 'Tomb Raider' opened about twice as big and 'Solo's opening was on par with 'Maze Runner 3' and 'The Shape of Water'. Wow. Just wow. Star Wars Title National OW Release date Total admissions Multiple Star Wars: The Force Awakens 137,128 Thu 24 Dec 15 446,258 3.25 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 100,121 Thu 14 Dec 17 298,770 2.98 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 60,213 Thu 15 Dec 16 191,209 1.99 Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith 40,500 Fri 20 May 05 143,000 3.53 Solo: A Star Wars Story 21,325 Thu 24 May 18 – – Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace – Fri 15 Oct 99 190,000 – Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones – Fri 17 May 02 120,000 – As for 'Deadpool 2', it had a terrible drop, in the same range as 'Batman v Superman', 'Justice League' and 'Captain America: Civil War'. However, all of them opened on a holiday weekend, which contributed to a bigger sophomore drop. 'Deadpool 2' had a holiday on its second weekend, which should have made its drop smaller. Nevertheless, its drop is on par with recent May superhero flicks, like 'Guardians 2' and 'X-Men: Apocalypse'. Its drop was also much worse than the original 'Deadpool's 59.1% drop. That film made 31,809 admissions on its 2nd weekend, but its cumulative admissions were at 154,884 by its second Sunday, so 'Deadpool 2' is still ahead. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it can hold on as much as 'Deadpool' so it may end up with a lower total (217,832 admissions). On the other hand, 'Deadpool' fell 68% (!) on its third weekend. All in all, the final gross of 'Deadpool 2' doesn't look like it will be far off from its predecessor on either side. 'Infinity War' had its worst drop and has had no drops below 50% so far. Defying all odds though, on Monday, it became the biggest film of the last two-and-a-half years, since December 2015, when the one-two punch of 'Worlds Apart' and 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' took the nation by storm, selling more than 1 million admissions combined. It is inching closer and closer to 'Spider-Man 3' (367K admissions) but it remains unclear whether it can get there. It will need sub-50% drops to achieve it. Overall, an impressive feat, in a market that has crashed and been trapped in stagnation for the last 8 years. Animated films have been holding well and it seems like 'The Incredibles 2' will be coming out just in time for the school summer holidays (mid-June), although its capacity to get anywhere near the all-time Top 10 animated films is completely unknown. Other openers have again performed dismally.

BOM says May 27. Could be a mistake, but how could one know?

UPDATE BASED ON WEEKEND ACTUALS Estimated NA total: $660-668M Estimated China total: $355-360M Estimated OS total: $980-987M WW total: $1.995-2.015B

Potentially tomorrow

I used the Memorial day weekend as a comparison because it is a holiday weekend and films tend to drop harder the weekend after. I doubt that using the 4th instead of the 5th weekend matters in this case as much. We'll see though.

REPOSTING FROM DOMESTIC FORUM Infinity War's Sunday is $6.63M. Monday will drop 20% (at most) to $5.3M. The long weekend total will be $22.7M and the cume-to-date will be $627.9M (at least). Based on its $17.4M weekend, comparison with other Marvel movies's 3-day Memorial weekend gross suggest that it will have a multiplier around 2.2-2.6x [gross made from Memorial Day onwards divided by 3-day Memorial weekend]. This means that it will make about $660-668M. Even a Black Panther-like hold (3.36x) would only take it $680M. $700M is dead. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Continuing with OS box office Avengers will finish with $355-360M in China, according to the China experts (off-chance of $365M with extension). As for OS–China, using the same method as domestic: AoU's multiplier is 1.68x. Avengers's mulitplier is 2.97x. IM3's multiplier is 1.94x. Civil War's mulitplier is 2.48x. I'll choose a random range for Infinity War near the low end 2.1-2.5x. This gives a range of 946.2 + 13.9 x (2.1 OR 2.5) = $975-981M. ADD IT ALL UP: $1.990-$2.009B Too close to call.

With GotG2 mulitplier (2.66x), it will make 17.4 x 2.66 + 622.6 = $668.9M

Infinity War's Sunday is $6.63M. Monday will drop 20% (at most) to $5.3M. The long weekend total will be $22.7M and the cume-to-date will be $627.9M (at least). Based on its $17.4M weekend, comparison with other Marvel movies's 3-day Memorial weekend gross suggest that it will have a multiplier around 2.2-2.6x. This means that it will make about $660-668M. EDIT: Even a Black Panther-like hold (3.36x) would only take it $680M. $700M is dead.

Solo DOM might even beat TFA WW

I can barely wait for this...

Not entirely out of the question but it will miss it more likely than not.

I guess some of the individual grosses may be slightly off on either side, but the important thing is that, when all of them are added together, I would like to think that the range is quite accurate.

“This film from the beginning of the year was identified as a movie to see; Fandango had Solo as one of the most anticipated movies of the summer along with Infinity War and Deadpool 2, so it’s surprising for the film to have not done the business as we have hoped,” said Disney distribution boss Dave Hollis this morning. “It’s disappointing when tracking is unpredictable when you get to levels like this and setting up expectations outside of where the film is landing. But, we come into a Memorial Day that’s doing a ton of business for the industry, and the last four weeks have been the biggest. It’s great for the business. Sure, Deadpool 2 jumping in front of the release and how available people turned out this weekend are factors (in Solo‘s slowdown), but with Solo we have a film that’s well received with great exits, and we have nothing in front of us for two weekends. We’ll measure the success of Solo at its finish.” One small Delaware exhibitor wrote Deadline over the weekend, “We never got close to selling out our big houses or our little houses on Solo. The poor spacing of the tentpoles just adds to it under performing. The moviegoer is on a budget: They just spent money to go to Avengers than two weeks later Deadpool 2 now a week later a lot of moviegoers are out of money by the time Solo comes out.” Disney’s worldwide distribution chief Dave Hollis, who is exiting the studio this week after 17 years, allowed that expectations were certainly higher on the movie and said Mouse execs will “spend a lot of time digging into every question in every market to get the answer” to why Solo so under-performed. “We came into the beginning of the year with this one of the most anticipated films. We gotta spend some time looking at the exits and get a better handle on all the questions.” What do rivals think happened? Some cite fatigue mixed with too many spinoffs, and a bad leftover taste from The Last Jedi. One source says, “I think Disney got caught milking the Star Wars franchise a little too much. Everyone acknowledged the risk of releasing another movie five months after Jedi. They really should have pushed Solo to Christmas.” Recent SW titles have had essentially clear play through the holidays while Solo now finds himself in the summer blockbuster crunch. Another exec believes that Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 sucked a lot of wind out of the markets. “It feels like general moviegoers are making a conscious choice to wait, probably until Jurassic World 2, to see their next movie.” But I’ve been cautioned to maintain some perspective “as the numbers are still decent for a spinoff, just not Disney/Lucasfilm numbers.” For Hollis, it’s too soon to jump to [franchise] “fatigue” as a reason for Solo‘s opening. “This is just the fourth movie and the first three did $4B combined. I’m not sure it’s so much that people aren’t excited for additional stories.” A silver lining here is that Episode IX isn’t due until Christmas 2019 so there will be more spacing. Hollis also points to the MCU, noting, “We’re in a world where we’re in the same conference rooms planning Marvel movies. We have a Thor and a Black Panther and an Infinity War coming out in November and February and May and each are massively successful. They each do well and people aren’t asking these questions.” http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-weekend-box-office-1202397848/ http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-opening-weekend-deadpool-2-avengers-infinity-war-china-global-international-box-office-1202398686/ All the comments from the industry (studio execs and distribs) In my mind, not waiting til Christmas was the biggest mistake. They better learn from this and space out their live-action movies too, cuz there's no way 6 live-action reimaginings/sequels/reboots of Disney classics will survive within 12 months of each other. Also, it reminds a bit of May's Big Three back in 2007 (Spider-Man 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3). The order in which they were released was the order in terms of opening weekend and final gross. The same happened with Infinity War, Deadpool 2 and Solo, except their drop from one to the next has been much larger.

Disney has crossed $4B WW this year ($4.12B). http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-opening-weekend-deadpool-2-avengers-infinity-war-china-global-international-box-office-1202398686/ Existing movies will propel it to about $4.5B. Then it's got Incredibles 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin, The Nutcracker, Wreck-It Ralph 2 and Mary Poppins Returns. I2: $800M-$1B AM2: $650-850M CR: $200-400M Nutcracker: $400-700M WR2: $550-750M MP2: $600-900M Low end: $3.2B High end: $4.6B Assuming WR2 and MP2 will make some of their money in 2019, the range is revised to $2.45-3.65B. That means a final total of $6.95-8.15B. On the low end, that is the second-biggest yearly total ever for studio, behind Disney's own $7.6B and ahead of current #2, Universal's $6.9B. At the high end it is an all-time record and the first time a studio would cross $8B.

Don't forget that a lot of countries opened before their traditional opening days (some even on Tuesday), so the drop was bound to be bigger than usual. Still though, to reach $400M it will need 45% drops from now, assuming Japan makes about $15M or so.

So what is its final total likely to be?