Quigley

$18M weekend from China means $14.5M from the rest of the world, compared to $32M from last weekend. 55% drop. Quite frontloaded despite Solo being a very quiet opener ($65M weekend). Two weeks til Jurassic World 2. $49M global weekend. Assuming it's making about 30% of its weekend gross on weekdays (based on what it made last week), it will need 44% drops from now on to reach $2B. Not impossible but with China likely to drop much more than 44% from now on, other countries will have to make up for it.

No, dude, the 32.5M number doesn't include North America

We need to see what this weekend's results are from overseas. But by the looks of it, they won't be good...

$148.3M WW opening?! Wow, that is lower than the lowest predictions anyone ever imagined.

Even worse then. It is a worse Fri-to-Sat drop percetnage-wise than all of the Top 6 (31% compared to X-Men: The Last Stand's 29%). Spectacular debacle....

Even on the high end of estimates, $26M is lower than all of the Top 6 Memorial Day openers: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=memorialdayshow.htm TRAGIC Fri-to-Sat drop (expected due to the low OD/preview ratio I guess...)

I must admit I am quite happy with the fact the Pirates 3 retains the record. It deserves it. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/md.htm

What about Deadpool 2?

On Wednesday, Avengers Infinity War achieved the second-largest initial run overseas, ahead of Titanic's $1,242.4M. On the same day, it has achieved the third-largest initial run worldwide, surpassing Titanic's $1,843.2M, to rank behind The Force Awakens and Avatar. A day earlier, it surpassed Titanic's NA gross during its initial run to become the 7th biggest initial run domestically. In all likelihood, its OS ranking will remain the same, as will its worlwide ranking. Domestically, it will probably climb up to 4th place, with an off-chance it might reach 3rd place.

So is this gonna beat Pirates 3 or not?

No, not at all, I'm afraid. This is a good explanation about why. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6wBMWFh7TM

I don't know if this will have an impact on cinema ticket sales but it's worth noting that the Champions League final between Real Madrid and Liverpool is happening this Saturday. I think a lot of people in Europe will watch that rather than Solo. Brace for impending doom...

What country? The US?

So IW aiming for #2 SH in gross and #5 SH in admissions...

Also, I feel like there are too many live-action reimaginings/sequels/reboots of classical Disney films. Within 12 films (August 2018 – July 2019) we are getting: Christopher Robin The Nutcracker Marry Poppins 2 Dumbo Aladdin The Lion King What exactly is Disney thinking? I seriously doubt they will all be break-out successes. And the fact that they come out so close to each other could harm all of them.

This should have been released in December. There is no doubt about that. What a stupid decision by Disney.

It doesn't include Wedensday numbers. Even if we already know the Wednesday number, they don't include it. They always report figures as cumulative gross up to a specific date, not all grosses that are currently available.

The grosses for individual countries are inaccurate. They shouldn't add up to the OS total and if they do, it's just a coincidence. There are movies on BOM for which the OS total is smaller than the sum of all individual countries.

It's interesting that Greece and Japan both STILL have the original Spider-Man trilogy at the top of their superhero charts. Does anyone know if this is true in any other country?

With an $86.2M weekend and a $54.2M weekend in China, it made $32M elsewhere. That was a 60.5% drop from last week's $81M. That means it's made $918.5M so far OS w/o China.

Weekend 17–20/05/2018 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Deadpool 2 82,773 – 82,773 1 2 Avengers: Infinity War 9,081 -60.4% 347,885 4 3 The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature 4,161 -25.9% 10,885 2 4 Ghostland [English-language Canadian–French] 2,277 -41.6% 9,991 2 5 Truth or Dare 1,643 -63.4% 23,642 3 6 Beirut 1,641 -63.6% 8,335 2 7 Aurore [French] 1,513 – 1,513 1 8 Le Brio [French–Belgian] 1,371 – 1,371 1 9 Blockers 993 -68.7% 6,678 2 10 Les as de la jungle [French] 973 -38.3% 14,991 4 Source: http://flix.gr/news/box-office-17052018.html This weekend's cumulative admissions were back to 6 digits, with about 110K admissions, a feat attributable completely to 'Deadpool 2'. 'Deadpool 2' confirmed the popularity of the first film by opening 6.4% higher. That one was boosted by Valentine's Day falling on a Sunday, so the sequel's success is even more impressive. Next weekend sees the arrival of 'Solo', but the following Monday is a holiday, so 'Deadpool 2' may not fall too hard. The first one fell 59% anyway on its second weekend, so it's not easy to go worse than that. All factors considered, it is unlikely that 'Deadpool 2' will have a mutliple much smaller than the 2.8x achieved by its predecessor, so we may see it eclipse that film's 217.8K-admission total eventually. Superhero openings Rank Title Opening weekend Total Release date Multiple 1 Spider-Man 3 159,000 366,987 03/05/07 2.31 2 Avengers: Infinity War 129,549 347,885 26/04/18 2.69 3 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 122,428 276,311 24/03/16 2.26 4 Captain America: Civil War 101,800 215,155 05/05/16 2.11 5 The Dark Knight 100,000 339,520 17/07/08 3.40 6 Avengers: Age of Ultron 94,250 224,334 30/04/15 2.38 7 Deadpool 2 82,773 – 17/05/18 – 8 Spider-Man 2 82,300* 385,700 07/07/04 3.86 9 Deadpool 77,774 217,832 18/02/16 2.80 10 The Avengers 75,755 242,565 26/04/12 3.20 11 The Dark Knight Rises 74,530 346,585 21/08/12 4.65 12 Iron Man 3 66,278 206,006 25/04/13 3.11 13 Hancock 64,603 129,239 18/09/08 2.00 14 Justice League 62,658 158,596 16/11/17 2.53 15 Suicide Squad 61,555 207,982 25/08/16 3.38 *This number is an estimate. The number could be a few hundred admissions higher or lower, so 'Deadpool 2' and 'Spider-Man 2' may rank the other way around. Also, bear in mind that the "traditional" weekend before August 2005 lasted 3 days (Fri-Sun). After that it changed to 4 days (Thu-Sun), so 'Spider-Man 2' is still far more impressive and of course it remains the biggest superhero film on record (I don't have data for any superhero films that were released before 2003). In other (significant) news, 'Infinity War' became the third biggest superhero film ever, after surpassing the two sequels of Christopher Nolan's Batman trilogy. It had another precipitous fall, but thanks to strong midweek earnings (35% of last week's total), the film has achieved far more than what was considered likely. If the drops actually stop being that bad, it may even have a shot at 2nd place, ahead of 'Spider-Man 3'. This is where my report stops, as I don't think that there is anything remotely as interesting happening below the Top 2.

Toss a coin, that's the best answer you'll get to be fair.

Oops, sorry I misread the comment. I thought you were referring to OS overall, not India specifically. My comment is referring to OS overall. In that case, $500M may not happen. With a slightly higher OS total and slightly lower NA total, you might as well toss a coin as to whether DP2 will top DP WW.

More like 42%, which is far from 50%, but still quite high. Unclear though whether it can have decent legs with Solo coming out next week and Jurasssic World 2 coming out in most countries on DP2's 4th weekend. Also, DP2 had a longer than normal weekend (starting earlier than the traditional opening day) in certain countries. This will make it even more front-loaded. I wouldn't say $500M is guaranteed. The only caveat to this is that it hasn't yet opened in Japan, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Mexico. These countries are probably enough to push it past $500M, even if it doesn't get there otherwise.