Quigley

So is there a Monday estimate?

Weekend 14–17/06/2018 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Incredibles 2 38,784 – 38,784 1 2 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 16,301 -58.0% 76,710 2 3 Hereditary 7,669 – 7,669 1 4 Book Club 4,059 – 4,119 1 5 Adrift 3,396 -36.5% 37,350 3 6 Deadpool 2 3,029 -40.2% 212,750 5 7 Garde Alternée [French] 2,812 – 2,812 1 8 Spinning Man 2,439 -72.7% 16,084 2 9 Momo 1,940 – 1,940 1 10 Hotel Artemis 1,854 – 1,854 1 Source: http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/4069/box-office-ena-incredibly-broxero-4hmero 'Incredibles 2' debuted at exactly the same level that its predecessor opened 13-and-a-half years ago. In the current state of the Greek market, this could probably be seen as a victory for the film, although comparison with other Pixar sequels ('Cars 3', 'Toy Story 3' and 'Finding Dory') suggest that it is rather disappointing. It debuted at the same exact level as last week's 'Jurassic World 2', which saw a big drop this week – far worse than the 38% drop of its predecessor. It is now trailing it by 31K admissions. In the meantime, other openers disappointed (the best per-screen average was 192). 'Deadpool 2' has, for the first time, fallen behind its predecessor, which had sold 212,893 admissions by its 5th weekend. Total weekend admissions reached 87K, which is 32% less than last year, when 'Cars 3' had opened to 51,698 admissions. Pixar (since 2003) Title Opening weekend Release date Total Finding Dory 90,356 Thu 1 Sep 16 295,338 Ratatouille 68,000-72,000 Thu 27 Sep 07 312,019 Inside Out 62,766 Thu 3 Sep 15 310,104 Up 57,008 Thu 10 Sep 09 211,570 Toy Story 3 56,358 Thu 24 Jun 10 202,242 Cars 3 51,698 Thu 15 Jun 17 175,915 Finding Nemo 45,615 Fri 5 Dec 03 340,731 Wall-E 41,787 Thu 18 Sep 08 147,357 Cars 38,000-40,000 Thu 14 Sep 06 150,000–165,000 Cars 2 38,970 Thu 23 Jun 11 140,825 Incredibles 2 38,784 Thu 14 Jun 18 The Incredibles 38,700 Fri 26 Nov 04 120,000–130,000 The Good Dinosaur 27,160 Thu 17 Dec 15 195,289 Brave 21,040 Thu 20 Sep 12 86,067 Monsters University 19,138 Thu 20 Jun 13 99,587 Coco 16,667 Thu 14 Dec 17 137,423

When is Rth expected to give a Sun number?

Thursday previews for I2 start at 5PM. This is ridiculous. We are lying to ourselves if we are still talking about opening weekends. Blockbusters nowadays have proper 4-day weekends. This preview business needs to stop or the official opening day should just be changed to Thursday.

Cars 3 is by far the worst. The only good bits of it were the flashbacks from Cars 1. I agree with the rest.

But the argument about developing markets affects both box office grosses and admissions.

Not adjusted

It will be less glowing. Disney has hijacked the critics industry. I don't know how they did it but they have. I don't believe for a second that all these 90%+ that Disney blockbusters are getting are all coincidences, especially when you look at films like TLJ and BP (but many others too)

I would only consider this film's run... incredible if it beats Dory's ADJUSTED $514M gross and Nemo's ADJUSTED $516M gross (without the re-release), to become the biggest Pixar film ever. But even then I won't personally be satisfied unless it beats Shrek 2's $650M ADJUSTED gross. And even then, as Ray Subers, had explained, the adjusted figures on box office do not reflect admissions. That's why in one his reports he said that Toy Story 3 sold LESS admissions than Toy Story 2, even though the prior is ahead of the latter on the adjusted BOM chart. So it would probably have to get to about $575M to become the most-attended Pixar film ever and about $725M to beat Shrek 2. And even then, its admission number divided by the country's current population (admissions per capita, let's say) will be lower than that of Nemo, since the country's population was much lower back then. So it would have to reach about $640M in order for anyone to argue that Incredibles 2 and Nemo have comaprable runs and probably and about $810M in order for it to be comaprable to Shrek 2. And even then, if it's not actually a good movie, I won't really be very happy that it did break any of those records. And it is probably clear that Incredibles 2 will go nowhere near such numbers. Hopefully it can cross $500M but the rest is just my own fantasy. It is definitely a cynical way to look at things but, let's face it, the rate of ticket-price inflation is so high, made even higher by the premiums attached to 3D, IMAX and other special cinema formats, that a box office gross doesn't give you any idea whatsoever about the film's actual popularity compared to another film. Of course, this has nothing to do with commerical success, which is a given, even if it comes way below these numbers.

I agree. Titanic remains the most impressive worldwide box office run of recent times. Maybe even of all time (Gone with the Wind notwithstanding). I'm just talking in unadjusted terms about $2-billion grossers and I don't think Titanic should be part of such a discussion. And in reality the only way we could ever compare films objectively is by comparing admissions. Dollar grosses and local currency grosses, whether adjusted or not, are not objective ways to compare the success of different films.

I think what makes this even more impressive is that this is just another sequel in a franchise that has been releasing multiple films per year. Even its last "direct predecessor", Age of Ultron, came out only 3 years ago. No other $2B film has done that. Star Wars built up demand and anticipation for 10 years. Avatar built up demand for 12 years (since Titanic). Titanic grossed less than $2B in its initial run.

On Monday, Disney became the first studio with 2 movies above $2 billion, just like it became the first studio with 2 movies above $1 billion.

OS total revised up by $1M. Now at $1,344.3M. The weekend was $11.9M instead of $10.9M. That means it made 11.9 – 6.7 = $5.2M from OS minus China. That is a 54% drop from last week's $11.3M OS weekend minus China. Will make it to $2B today (Monday), its 48th day.

Weekend 07–10/06/2018 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 38,828 – 38,828 1 2 Spinning Man 8,936 – 8,936 1 3 Adrift 5,352 -63.9% 29,896 2 4 Deadpool 2 5,069 -54.4% 205,611 4 5 Money 4,149 +38.3% 8,259 2 6 I Feel Pretty 2,504 – 2,504 1 7 Solo: A Star Wars Story 2,384 -61.6% 43,991 3 8 First Reformed 2,032 – 2,032 1 9 The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature 1,663 -22.5% 21,069 5 10 Submergence 1,260 – 1,260 1 Source: http://flix.gr/news/box-office-07062018.html 'Jurassic World' is a falling kingdom for sure. Its predecessor wasn't very big in Greece anyway, scoring 45,739 admissions during its opening on its way to a 181,987-admission total. 'Fallen Kingdom's' opening represents a 15% drop, which is higher than the 6% average drop achieved by the markets that opened this weekend. It will certainly cross 100K admissions, although its is unlikely to achieve the same 4.0x multiplier achieved by its predecessor, which would propel it to a total north of 150K admissions. My guess is 120–140K admissions. In the meantime, other openers failed to gain any significant traction. In terms of holdovers, last weekend's champion 'Adrift' dropped heavily, 'Solo' will probably miss 50K admissions and 'Deadpool 2' is slowing down faster than its predecessor but is still ahead in total admissions by about 1,500 admissions. Its total will be very similar to the 218K-admission of the first one. 'Money' had a nice bump but an inconsequential total of less than 9K admissions and 'Nut Job 2' is enjoying its (most likely) last week in the Top 10, since 'The Incredibles 2' will take over the market this Thursday. The first one opened to about 38,700 admissions back in November 2004, which was quite high for an animated film at the time, ranking third all time (my data go back to 2003) behind 'Finding Nemo' (45,615 admissions) and 'Shrek 2' (40,600 admissions). 'Incredibles 2' is unlikely to score the third-biggest opening weekend for an animated film – that would require something around 91K admissions. However, Pixar has released other sequels in June too: 'Toy Story 3' and 'Cars 3', which made 56,358 and 51,698 admissions respectively. One would like to think that Incredibles has left a better legacy than the 'Cars' franchise, so I would expect it to top that film's opening. The film is likely to attract not only children but old fans too, so an opening at or above the level of 'Toy Story 3' seems reasonable.

Yeah, I've taken that into account. That Saturday is Avatar's 44th day in North America and 46th overall.

No, it's its 45th day DOM so + 2 is 47. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel0518.htm

You are forgetting to add the 2 additional days of overseas release (Wednesday and Thursday) for IW. Avatar crossed $2B on the Saturday of its 7th weekend, not the Sunday, so it is the 46th day, not the 47th. This coming Sunday (tomorrow) will be IW's 47th day. So the record will not be broken either way. But I agree with you that it will either be tomorrow or Monday.

So what is the range for OW? Do you guys think it will increase from Fri minus previews. I think $40M is the ceiling for this: 15.8 + 13.5 +10.8 (20% drop Sat)

Universal isn't gonna tell us Friday numbers, it seems...

As Brainbugsaid, just stop replying to them. No one pays attention to their comments anyway. No one will think that your arguments are any less valid because of these people.

It was never gonna break that record anyway. Avatar reached $2B on the Saturday of its 7th weekend, so 46 days in total.

Dat Korea drop

Fair enough, I hadn't noticed that but in absolute terms, it is quite low and it's behind POTUS's prediction for 13M, even when adjusted downwards to compensate for Thursday's 8M gross rather than his prediction for 9.5M. 8x13/9.5=10.9M. How much do you think it will rebound tomorrow?

Ouch that IW number hurts

What percentage increase are we expecting on Sat compared to Fri? >100%?