Quigley

I agree with KenterKane. A cliffhanger doesn't always help. B2F2 and Pirates 2 are particularly good examples, as is the Hunger Games franchise, in which cliffhangers didn't increase overall curiosity in what will happen next. It all boils down to the marketing. If they play it safe, if they don't assume that people will watch it anyway, if they increase the stakes and if they convince people that this will be their last chance to see their favourite characters (Iron Man, Captain America) on the big screen, then it is very likely to increase. Otherwise, people won't be that fussed about watching a second Avengers film within a year. And when I say "that fussed", I mean it could end up with $1.6B, which is definitely not a failure and which will not justify any concern.

I have a feeling it will drop. However, if the marketing makes it really clear that this is the end (if it is indeed the end) for the main characters (Iron Man, Captain America), everyone will wanna see these two play one last time on the big screen. It can be done.

JW:FK got demolished in SK with an 81% second-day drop. Not the end of the world though. Will have a much higher OW (incl. previews) than JW1.

What does OST mean in the 5-way rating system?

In many conutries this has happened already.

It was a national holiday on Wed in SK. The drop is expected to be harsh on Thu. The Mummy dropped 75% last year. Of course, this result is encouraging but I wouldn't be too excited about it (yet).

Solo dropped 70% in its second weekend in Greece, the country @Thrylos 7 is referring to, so it will be hard to drop more than that percentage-wise, even if the screen count has dropped a lot.

"On Wednesday, play starts in France, Germany and Korea with such majors as the UK, Italy, Russia and Spain heading to Isla Nublar through Friday. Estimates from our sources put this one in a range of $130M-$145M for the weekend with many around the $150M mark. That would land JWFK a touch below the 2015 behemoth which kicked off at $158.6M in like-for-like markets and at today’s exchange rates." https://deadline.com/2018/06/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-international-box-office-preview-1202403909/ $158.6M is the magical number that it needs to beat.

Tuesday numbers?

Wow, do you guys think this is indicative of what will happen in the rest of the world. Or is Korea just nuts about dinosaurs?

In terms of initial runs, it is already #2 overseas, #3 worldwide and will get to #4 domestic. Not bad. And it may even beat TFA WW after all, even though it is very unlikely based on the current situation.

Weekend 31/05–03/06/2018 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Adrift 14,829 – 14,829 1 2 Deadpool 2 11,123 -60.7% 191,545 3 3 Tully 6,649 – 6,649 1 4 Solo: A Star Wars Story 6,202 -70.9% 37,844 2 5 Money 3,001 – 3,001 1 6 The Ladykillers (1955) 2,964 – 2,964 1 7 Knock [French–Belgian] 2,450 – 2,450 1 8 The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature 2,147 -42.7% 18,939 4 9 24 Hours to Live 1,543 – 1,543 1 10 Avengers: Infinity War 1,449 -54.1% 360,045 6 Source: http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-adrift-sails-among-the-disasters/ On one of the quietest weekends of 2018 so far, 'Adrift' managed a first-place finish it would never have dreamed of. Its closest competitor was not 'Solo, of course, which tanked with a 71% drop, headed for a final total around 50K admissions. We can all agree to pretend this film never existed... As I was saying, 'Adrift's closest competitor was 'Deadpool 2' which dropped nearly as bad as its predecessor did on its third weekend. That one earned slightly less, 10,251 admissions, and 'Deadpool 2' is in fact still ahead in total admissions by about 3.5K admissions. It remains to be seen if 'Deadpool 2' can retain this lead, but with 'Jurassic World 2' arriving this Thursday, it's hard to tell. 'Infinity War' continued its uninterrupted streak of 50%+ drops but has now crossed 360K admissions and is within breathing distance of 'Spider-Man 3' (367K admissions), although it looks like it won't be able to surpass it. The animated market is dead-quiet, which bodes well for 'The Incredibles 2', which arrives in 2 weeks. Among other openers, the 1955 British comedy 'The Ladykillers' was re-released in 3 'summer cinemas' – these are outdoor cinemas, a tradition that still survives in Greece. This film proves the state of modern cinema: apart from blockbuster popcorn flicks, other films are becoming less and less relevant, with very little quality and very little to say to audiences. Look no further than the whopping 988-admission per-screen average that this 1955 film achieved, while all the other films in the Top 10 managed per-screen averages less than one third of this.

the-numbers.com is not a reliable source

Do get there, yeah I assumed an extension in China: 987 + 376 + 672 (give or take 1-2 million for each) = 2035

Do we know/When will we know if IW will get an extension?

Last weekend, OS–C was $14.46M. This weekend is about $11.1M ($14.2M in China). The drop is 23%. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2018W22&id=marvel0518.htm OS–C total is $966M. Last week it was $951M. That means $3.9M during the weekdays. A very likely harsh drop will occur next weekend due to the release of Jurassic World 2. China, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Japan are the major territories where Jurassic World 2 won't open next weekend. Range for final OS–C total is $983–990M I think (calculated using constant drops of 40% for the high number and 50% for the low number). Very bad, horrible worst-case scenario is above $2B: 980 (OS) + 363 (C) + 660 (NA). We are looking at around $2.035B for its final WW total, unless it holds well against Jurassic World 2, in which (unlikely) case it could give TFA a run for its money.

Do we have numbers from Rthanos for Sunday?

For those of you who are not persuaded that the Champions League final impacted attendance in Europe (and beyond) on Saturday, May 26, maybe this will perusade you: Daily admission numbers for Solo in Greece Thursday: 5,753 Friday: 3,886 Saturday: 4,876 Sunday (boosted by holiday Monday): 6,810 In contrast, last year, 'Pirates 5' led the same holiday weekend with nearly identical numbers on Saturday and Sunday: 12,346 and 12,515 admissions respectively. This strongly suggests a depressed Saturday for Solo. On the same holiday weekend two years ago (the dates move around since the holiday is determined by Easter), 'Florence Foster Jenkins' actually sold more admissions on Saturday than on Sunday: 10,073 vs 8,383. Note that the absence of the Champions League final wouldn't have led to anything much bigger than $63M weekend – it would have been up to $70M max, which is still a total disaster. http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-solo-bombs/ http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-pirates-of-the-lost-spirit/ http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-florence-foster-jenkins-at-the-top/

I was about to say so as well. The new people running the site are quasi-imbeciles.

Pirates of the Caribbean (original trilogy) is the best anyway. Let's face it. Marvel makes the best popcorn movies (they are indeed very entertaining) but none of the big blockbuster franchises offer the philosophical depths, the adventurous uncertainty, the sincerity, the consistency, the witty humour and, of course, the epic and emotionally fulfilling music of Pirates of the Caribbean.

Timing is the only issue. I had seen IW and DP2 and there was no money/time left for Solo. I honestly would have seen it in cinemas 100% if it was released during Christmas.

Yeah, that prediction was mine. I have to admit I never saw that coming. But as I pointed to people who have brought this up before, no one made a prediction in that thread that was more than 70% accurate. So, in reality, no one predicted its success and making fun of the worst predictions is just an attempt to ignore the fact that no one made a decent prediction anyway...

Guys calm down, the franchise scored the two biggest opening weekends of all time (at the time) and still holds two of the Top 3. This is not an uber fragile franchise at all. It just happens to be that overseas, it is not such a big thing as it is in North America (but it is still massive). That's it. We can't expect it to break records with every single outing. People thought the Avengers were over when Age of Ultron grossed less than the Avengers. The drama is ridiculous.

True, it's far from a given. But the first one opened in November and I would say that the summer is a more lucrative period in general, so it is possible. North America will clearly have one of the biggest boosts. For other countries, it could be anynoe's guess.

OS without China Zootopia made $447M -> incl China it's $683M Coco made $408M -> incl China it's $597M Finding Dory made $504M -> incl China it's $542M Notice how these numbers are turned on their heads when adding China. It really does boil down to this single market and I would say that Incredibles 2 has the capacity to earn as much as Dory everywhere else. As for China, it really is an unknown but $600M is not out of the question or overoptimistic, in my opinion. Of course, something around $500M could be equally likely. We'll see.