Quigley

Without China, it did worse than the first one. Of course that may be due to ER but just sayin'.

Zootopia and Jungle Book reaching $1B?

I totally understand what you mean. In Greece, it's the same. Media only report admissions (number of tickets sold) and honestly I think that's what matters. In US especially the admission numbers are just not there (the "adjusted for inflation" number is completely inaccurate and meaningless)

The fact that DC fans are comparing Batman AND Superman with Iron Man, Thor, GotG, Ant Man and Captain America shows how "low" they have to go to make a rational (and favorable) comparison.

Slowly getting hyped for $1B now... $900M w/o Japan is a certainty and my projection is $930M. So Japan needs $70M which is far from impossible.

I don't know if it's an all-time record but it is defo a record for 2016.

Weekend 07-10/04/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 33,994 N/A 33,994 1 2 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 14,729 -64.9% 252,776 3 3 Kung Fu Panda 3 7,589 -39.5% 115,295 4 4 Zootopia 6,424 -18.2% 123,397 6 5 Somnia 5,659 N/A 5,659 1 6 Suntan [GR] 4,753 -40.2% 15,502 2 7 10 Cloverfield Lane 3,484 -59.8% 18,027 2 8 Hardcore Henry [English-laguage Russian-American] 2,315 N/A 2,315 1 9 El Abrazo de la Serpiente [Colombian] 2,211 -31.7% 6,875 2 10 Heidi [Swiss] 2,041 N/A 2,041 1 Sources: http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/3027/box-office-oi-kalesmenoi-snomparan-telika-to-gamo http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-not-that-fat-for-a-greek-wedding/ The wedding was not as fat the second time round. The first one had opened to the tune of 13,143 admissions in July 2002 on 15 screens (instead of this one's 109 screens) before explosively positive word-of-mouth dragged it through the entire second half of that year and into the next one, finishing with 810,000 admissions. This time though, no such word-of-mouth is expected and the prediction of 270,000 admissions I made last weekend is probably far out of reach. In second place, 'Dawn of Justice' did not recover from its pathetic second-weekend drop and is now unlikely to reach 300,000 admissions (some may argue it was unlikely anyway but I remained a bit more conservative in my projections). The race between 'Panda 3' and 'Zootopia' continues with no clear winner yet. The weekend's drop favoured 'Zootopia' again which is stiill aiming for that 150K-admission milestone but 'Panda 3' is close behind. Nothing else was really interesting about holdovers, except maybe that 'El Abrazo de la Serpiente' held well and achieved the best per-screen average of the Top 10 from only 7 screens. As for other newcomers, the scene is devastating. Total weekend admissions reached a new record low for 2016 (a record that is broken nearly every weekend) but next weekend is already aiming to break that record again due to disinterested viewers and disinteresting choices.

WW weekend was at $57.8M. At this point $900M seems like a longshot. Zootopia will definitely finish ahead in WW grosses and it might surpass it in NA too.

No. What you're saying has a different meaning.

Does it really matter at this point. It can only impact its gross negatively by a few million USD

It's kind of ironic that Pixar has only achieved the $1B-mark with a sequel and Disney has only achieved it with an original film (maybe two). No comment on Minions.

I doubt it won't surpass Deadpool WW gross. The question is Deadpool's NA gross.

So why do we never get any data on Austria? If no one has any data, then maybe we should just call it Germany instead of Germany/Austria.

Why "now"? How much is the second biggest?

Zootopia's OS Monday was only a few $100Ks behind BvS. A complete disappointment.

Monday OS was quite big, presumably because of a holiday in China.

We're not all native English speakers you know...

I think you're right about this in general but this year I read that the holiday will be extended til Tuesday to make up for the fact that May Day falls on Sunday (and Monday is already a public holiday). So this year films may benefit from the long weekend. What about animated films? Do you think they benefit from the two-week holidays despite the drop on Easter weekend?

Oh ok. Fair enough.

Although I won't claim to be an expert either, I have the impression that the concerns for the Chinese economy are no worse than the concerns for the global economy as a whole. Crises occur frequently in many countries but as far as the Western countries are concerned, the crisis of 2008 had a minimal effect on the box office. There are few examples of a significant decrease of box office returns. Greece and Cyprus are characteristic ones: their decrease in GDP over the past 5 years was 25% and 15% resepctively. In both Greece and Cyprus, yearly box office admissions and yearly box office grosses during each of the last 3 years have been the lowest of the last 2 decades (without taking inflation into account, which makes it even worse). I doubt China wil experience any decrease in GDP in the near future. A slower increase of GDP will definitely do no harm either.

Seriously? Zootopia is higher than last Monday? What the hell is going on with this film? What screen share did it have then and now?

Weekend 31/03 - 03/04/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 41,998 -65.7% 218,025 2 2 Kung Fu Panda 3 12,547 -61.2% 106,352 3 3 10 Cloverfield Lane 8,661 N/A 8,661 1 4 Suntan [GR] 7,942 N/A 7,942 1 5 Zootopia 7,853 -55.9% 115,642 5 6 London Has Fallen 3,484 -55.3% 116,771 5 7 El Abrazo de la Serpiente [Colombian] 3,236 N/A 3,236 1 8 Francofonia [French-language French-German-Dutch] 2,602 N/A 2,602 1 9 Eddie the Eagle 1,927 N/A 1,927 1 10 Urok [Bulgarian-language Bulgarian-Greek] 1,882 N/A 1,882 1 Source: http://flix.gr/news/box-office-31032016.html Just like everywhere esle, 'Batman v Superman' plummeted in its sophomore frame at the Greek box office, by a whopping 66%. However, it's difficult to isolate the effect of word-of-mouth on this drop, because all films dropped substantially this weekend. 'Kung Fu Panda 3', 'Zootopia' and 'London Has Fallen' all dropped between 55% and 62%, which is of course less than 66% but still close enough to justify not rejecting the hypothesis that the holiday of last weekend is responsible for BvS's drop. Furthermore, other superhero movies have had similar sophomore drops: Film Second-weekend drop Notes Spider-Man 3 62.7% (Athens only) The Dark Knight 52% Avengers Age of Ultron 62.6% Deadpool 59.1% Marvel's the Avengers 49.9% Iron Man 52.9% (Athens only) Iron Man 2 59.2% (Athens only) Obviously none of the above are as low as 65.7% but none of the above were released on a holiday either. The weekday-to-weekend ratio also does not suggest significant frontloadedness. All in all, I would suggest that negative word-of-mouth had a minor effect, if it had any effect at all. I guess it would sound contradictory after doing this extensive analysis, but I think we shouldn't obsess with the second-weekend drop too much. If the film achieves drops of around 50% for the remainder of its run, the upcoming Easter holidays should help it scrape the 300,000-admission mark (Easter in Greece is on the 1st of May this year - school holidays last for two weeks, one before and one after Easter - the public holiday will be five days, from Friday to Tuesday, both included). The big drops for 'Kung Fu Panda 3' and 'Zootopia' were not totally unexpected but could have been smaller. Although such drops could obviously not be good, in terms of the race between these two films, they certainly benefit 'Zootopia', which still has chances of finishing ahead. Their relative drops in the following weeks will be crucial. 'Kung Fu Panda 3' will soon surpass its predecessor (110,185 admissions), although the first film's total is somewhat out of reach (200,600 admissions). 'London Has Fallen' has maintained a lead in total admissions compared to 'Zootopia', which will come to an end next weekend. However it has had an impressive run, with a 4.5x multiple that should end up being higher than 5x by the end of its run. This compares well to the 3.87x multiplier of 'Olympus Has Fallen'. Quite unexpected for a sequel belonging to a front-loaded genre (action thriller). Newcomers were numerous and quite successful (6 of them got into the weekend's Top 10). '10 Cloverfield Lane' was the winner in terms of total admissions but 'Suntan' sold only slightly less from half the number of screens (44 vs 23). 'Eddie the Eagle' was definitely a dud, since its screen count was 28. The other three had a screen count between 4 and 6, so their results were certainly not a disappointment. Next weekend sees the release of 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2'. The first one earned 810,000 admissions (!) back in 2002-2003, but the long waiting time between it and the sequel, as well as the lukewarm reception of the marketing and the film itself, suggests that this one will not even come close to those numbers. I see a similar situation to the '300' franchise, where the second one made a third of the first one. It seems like a plausible scenario for 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' and would put its total gross at 270,000 admissions.

Furious 7's drops last year were: 52.5% OS (excluding openers) 59.5% NA so BvS's drops are clearly not just because of its opening falling on Easter weekend. [EDIT] HP&:P2 dropped 65.3% WW Spider-Man 3 dropped 62.7% WW Only HP6 dropped more (73.7%) but it opened on a Wednesday in NA and some other countries (which normally open on Fridays) so it's understandable

I would say $130.7M for TOY STORY 3 in Japan is definitely "big"

Holy crap. 66.9% decline OS and 68.4% decline in NA. WW drop is 67.5% from $422.5M to $137.4M