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Quigley

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  1. Deadpool scored 77,774 admissions during the weekend. Huge and totally unexpected. More tomorrow...
  2. Weekend 11-14/02/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 The Revenant 16,597 -49.6% 290,075 4 2 How to Be Single 10,774 N/A 10,774 1 3 The Boy 10,582 -24.0% 66,613 3 4 Les Nouvelles Aventures d'Aladin 10,047 N/A 10,047 1 5 The Danish Girl 8,979 -34.5% 58,054 3 6 Room 8,486 -39.1% 30,463 2 7 Ένας Άλλος Κόσμος (Enas Allos Kosmos; aka Worlds Apart) [GR] 7,480 -22.0% 648,515 9 8 Fifty Shades of Black 7,210 -23.9% 23,562 2 9 Μαγικός Καθρέφτης (Magic Mirror) [GR] 6,516 -54.4% 28,978 2 10 Creed 6,120 -52.1% 61,312 3 Sources: http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/2927/enas-mhnas-me-ton-leonarnto-basilia-tou-box-office http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-how-low-can-you-go/ 'The Revenant' topped the box office for a 4th conescutive week. The last film to achieve this is 'Furious 7'. However, this is not necessarily good news. The weakness of new releases and of the market in general is genuinely depressing. Total admissions were down more than 20% from last weekend, despite this one having the help of Valentine's Day. The 130,000 admissions sold in total this weekend were less those earned only by last year's biggest film on Valentine weekend, 'Fifty Shades Grey', which opened to 140,443 admissions. It is at least almost certain that 'The Revenant' will surpass the final totals of 'The Departed' and 'Shutter Island', although not by much, since its weekend-to-weekend drops have been getting worse every weekend. The bad-news train continues with only 2 of the 6 new releases in the Top 10. None of the 6 newcomers did particularly well; some we're complete disasters. The biggest performer, 'How to Be Single' barely benefited from Valentine's. I should note that it was one of three non-animated films to increase on Sunday (for animated films it is more or less the norm), the other two being 'Worlds Apart' and 'Fifty Shades of Black'. Among holdovers, 'Magic Mirror' was clearly a debacle, dropping over 50%. Most holdovers though had small drops ('Creed' excluded): the best belonging to none other than 'Worlds Apart', with 'Fifty Shades of Black' and 'The Boy' hot on its heels. The former has made nothing more than small ripples, while the latter has been doing quite well. Horror films do have a significant following undoubtedly but the idea that has stuck in my head since last week is that this one might reach 100,000 admissions. It would still need to sub-30% drops to achieve this, so we'll see. As for 'Worlds Apart', it would need sub-20% drops to reach 700,000 admissions but chances are it will make it. Among last week's openers, 'Room' moved ahead of 'Magic Mirror' both for the weekend and in total admissions. Below the Top 10, we had a lot of animated films hold well. No major milestones though. Rather, we have a high likelihood that 'Star Wars 7' will miss 450,000 admissions, finishing below the sum of the admissions of the prequel trilogy (453,000 admissions) - sorry Joel M - but it nevertheless earned much more than anyone expected. Greece is yet another market where Disney has succeeded in relaunching the franchise, preparing the ground for even more Star Wars films and lucrative merchandise.
  3. I found a new source which (hopefully) has more accurate data: http://www.mediasalles.it/ I've added a yearly table with admissions, grosses and average ticket prices on the first page (1989-2015). Before 2005, they are all estimates. I've also updated the info in the above posts.
  4. I'm confused. Do you mean that this is the only good news for Disney or that the home video market has only good news for Disney and no bad news?
  5. I finally found info about the yearly gross at the Greek box office. I have updated my post above. As you can see, between 2011 and 2014, all three measures dropped (admissions, gross and average price). This clearly indicates an industry that is collapsing since lower prices did not manage to increase demand but actually demand dropped as hard as average ticket prices. It seems like the industry was trying to respond to decreasing demand: between 2009 and 2011 admissions were dropping dangerously, so they decided to decrease prices. It took them another 3 years to reach equilibrium though, and at a very low level of gross (the industry shrank 40% in the meantime). Only minor signs of "recovery" were observed in 2015.
  6. Wow. $39M daily average. It will cross ¥2B and $300M in 8 days. Ridiculous.
  7. When you say that it's running 16% ahead of 2015, I assume you're talking about Romania, right? Romania has a population of 20 million compared to 11 million in Greece, so there is much more potential for growth. As for Greece, I don't think there will be any significant growth. There are a lot of 2016 movies belonging to franchises that are popular in Greece. Here I'll mention the ones whose predecessors(s) have earned more than 200,000 admissions: Batman vs Superman, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, Captain America 3, Alice in Wonderland 2, Finding Dory, Ice Age 5, Inferno, Fantastic Beasts, Rogue One. This doesn't include Greek films, since I don't know which ones are coming out. Among 2015 films, the only ones that had predecessors with over 200,000 admissions were Avengers 2 and Spectre. There may be an increase thanks to all these films, or it could be that people will go to these films and spend less money on others with the net effect being no increase at all. We'll see though. Talking particularly about Deadpool, I doubt it can break out in Greece. Imo, anything above a 100,000 admission total will be a major success. Superhero films are not as popular as the US and only the really big ones (Avengers 1 & 2, Dark Knight and TDKR, Iron Man 3, Spider-Man 2 & 3 but not TASM 1 & 2) have managed to cross 200,000 admissions.
  8. [UPDATED: I have found the grosses as well as more accurate admissions. Admissions are rounded to the first decimal.] I have finally found results, albeit provisional, about the Greek box office for 2015. Year Admissions (millions) Gross (million euros) Average ticket price 2008 11.83 91.2 7.71 2009 12.29 96.1 7.82 2010 11.71 94.6 8.08 2011 10.84 89.2 8.23 2012 10.12 70.2 6.94 2013 9.01 59.3 6.58 2014 8.97 58.0 6.47 2015 9.80 63.4 6.47 Source: http://www.mediasalles.it/ The increase in admissions was 9.4%. Furthermore, the total box-office gross for 2015 was 63.4M€, compared to 58.0M€ for 2014, a 9.3% increase. It turns out that the prediction mentioned in a Variety article late last year was accurate (http://variety.com/2015/biz/global/greece-box-office-increases-2015-1201665056/) but not enough to send admissions above the 10-million mark, which the market hasn't reached since 2012. The reason for that is, to a significant extent, if not exclusively, the ongoing financial crisis. 2016 has started on a high note thanks to holdovers 'Worlds Apart' and 'Star Wars 7' as well as newcomer 'The Revenant'. There are many tentpoles that could make 2016 return to 2012 levels, but I find it quite unlikely, since the country's financial situation seems to be worsening for the time being or, in a best-case scenario, not improving.
  9. Less than $10M left to earn from existing countries. $315M total. Japan needs to make at least $70M to match the analyst's prediction from ealy December. Very unlikely. I doubt it can even reach $350M actually.
  10. New movies released this weekend: Trumbo How to Be Single Jane Got a Gun Les Cowboys [French] Kishibe no Tabi (Journey to the Shore) [Japanese] Les Nouvelles Aventures d'Aladin [French] Im Labyrinth des Schweigens [German]
  11. Hahaha, I'm not sure if the $500M prediction is worse than my prediction for Jurassic World.
  12. 1B yean in 4 days (or almost). Has any other movie done that before? FF7?
  13. Nice sum up for biggest single-day on record: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-mermaid-powers-863257 Also I have to say I'm satisfied that Kung Fu Panda 3 is already crashing. DreamWorks should just quit making movies cuz the vast majority is somewhere between ridiculous and pathetic.
  14. Weekend 04-07/02/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 The Revenant 32,952 -46.4% 258,041 3 2 Μαγικός Καθρέφτης (Magikos Kathreftis; aka Magic Mirror) [GR] 14,274 N/A 14,274 1 3 Room 13,945 N/A 13,945 1 4 The Boy 13,926 -24.2% 46,297 2 5 The Danish Girl 13,718 -15.6% 42,011 2 6 Creed 12,777 -38.4% 47,501 2 7 Ένας Άλλος Κόσμος (Enas Allos Kosmos; aka Worlds Apart) [GR] 9,590 -34.5% 635,393 8 8 Fifty Shades of Black 9,470 N/A 9,470 1 9 Νοτιάς (Notias) [GR] 6,895 -46.1% 125,825 4 10 Barbie: Spy Squad 5,859 +0.1% 12,717 2 Source: http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/2916/triti-sunexomeni-ebdomada-stin-korufh-gia-tin-epistrofh-tou-iniaritou http://flix.gr/news/box-office-4-02-16.html 'The Revenant' scored a hat trick at the Greek box office, to no one's surprise, as the new releases failed to generate traction. However, it had a relatively high drop of 46%, compared to its excellent second-weekend hold. It is still ahead of 'The Departed' and 'Shutter Island' but trailing 'Inception' in the same time in their run. We had a trio of new openings. 'Magikos Kathreftis' scored the biggest opening of the three but was almost surpassed, unexpectedly, by 'Room', which had less than a third of the theaters but three times the per-theater average. 'Fifty Shades of Black' was at the very least underwhelming. A nice quartet of holdovers had decent, if not exceptional, drops, with the best being that of 'The Danish Girl'. The latter, along with 'The Boy' and 'Creed' will all surpass 50,000 admissions and if they maintain their current dynamic, could even approach 100,000 admissions. 'Worlds Apart' continued its extraoridnary run: by next weekend it will move ahead of 'The Da Vinci Code' and could give 'Brides' a run for its money (with sources putting the final admission count around 700,000). 'Notias' stumbled along while surpassing 'Ouzeri Tsitanis' (116,606 admissions). 'Barbie' actually increased from its opening and most films in positions 11-20 had good holds (sub-40%). 'The Good Dinosaur' finally reached 2015's Top 10 and will soon rank #9 ahead of 'Imitation Game' and behind 'Age of Ultron'. I have started contemplating the possibility that it reaches 200,000 admissions, which are excpetionally amazing legs - even for a Pixar film.
  15. If Mojo is accurate, the film made sth like $6M there. Impressive.
  16. Sunday was SW7's final day in China. Final tally is $125.3M. I think the film can just about reach $1B OS (minus China) but it will need really good holds.
  17. Weekend 28-31/01/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 The Revenant 61,478 -27.1% 193,494 2 2 Creed 20,744 N/A 20,744 1 3 The Boy 18,380 N/A 18,380 1 4 The Danish Girl 16,250 N/A 16,250 1 5 Ένας Άλλος Κόσμος (Enas Allos Kosmos; aka Worlds Apart) [GR] 14,633 -29.4% 616,444 7 6 Νοτιάς (Notias) [GR] 12,801 -52.4% 112,947 3 7 Un gallo con muchos huevos 6,472 -25.1% 16,356 2 8 Barbie: Spy Squad 5,851 N/A 5,851 1 9 The Little Prince 5,778 -25.0% 95,559 5 10 The Brand New Testament 5,728 N/A 5,728 1 Sources: http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/2907/i-epistrofh-tou-leonarnto-xana-stin-korufh-tou-box-office http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-the-revenant-is-strong/ There were no holidays this weekend, since the day of the Three Holy Hierarchs (January 30), on which all schools and universities close, fell on a Saturday. Nevertheless, most films had minor drops despite the big number of new releases. DiCaprio had no difficulty holding on to first place with an impressive sub-30% hold. Crossing 300,000 admissions will be a breeze for the Oscar contender. Its second weekend was on par with that of 'Inception', 'Shutter Island' and 'The Departed'. It is also leading the latter two in total admissions in the same time in their run, but not the prior because it had previews. I think a final total around 350,000 admissions is the most likely outcome, which is great for the first blockbuster of the year. The performance of newcomers was also quite surprising: 3 of them scored between 16,000 and 21,000 admissions and 5 of them finished in the Top 10 (with another at #11). 'Creed' led the pack, despite earning less than some hoped for. It is generally true though that films with black leads rarely break out in Greece. The most impressive newcomer was definitely 'The Brand New Testament' which scored the biggest per-theater average of the weekend (636 admissions per theater) from 9 theaters. The most disappointing was 'Alvin 4', which finished at #11 and was even out-grossed by 'Barbie'. It is a well-deserved position for the film though, as this franchise has carried on for far too long. Among other holdovers, it is important to note that 'Worlds Apart' moved ahead of 'Notias' in weekend earnings, rounding up the Top 5. It also crossed 600,000 admissions last Wednesday and will almost definitely surpass 650,000 admissions by the end of its run. On the other hand, Tasos Boulmetis's 1st directorial effort since 'Touch of Spice' plummeted more than 50% in its third weekend and may not even reach 150,000 admissions. Animated holdovers had excellent drops of less than 30%. 'The Little Prince' will surpass 100,000 admissions next week and 'The Good Dinosaur' surpassed 'Spongebob', to rank as the third biggest animated film of 2015. By next weekend, it will also surpass 'Jurassic World' to enter 2015's Top 10. 'The Big Short', 'Star Wars 7' and 'The Hateful Eight' all had drops around 50%. Next week will see the release of the first Greek 3-D film, 'Μαγικός Καθρέφτης' ('Magic Mirror') and 'Fifty Shades of Black' among others. I have my reservations for both, not limited to the continued popularity of 'The Revenant', but it will be interesting to see if either of them will become a success.
  18. Now that actuals are in, Star Wars earned $13.5M overseas. Excluding China, the drop was a small 30%. If it continues this trajectory it could earn an additional $35-45M, leading to about $1,125-1,135M. Even if say it ends up at $1,140M, it would not be enough to top FF7, but very close and very impressive nontheless. Overall, WW total is headed for slightly more than $2,050M.
  19. Wait are you sure that Minions is above Age of Ultron in Avatar ER? Were the exchange rates so different in May and July 2015?
  20. Impressive Jan increase. Anything above $9B for the year will be great.
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