Caesar

It's not a factor at all. For there to be fatigue the people who are not seeing the movie must have become bored of a constant barrage of Superhero movies. How could that be the case when these are people who probably aren't actually watching these movies?

The people who saw TA on OW but not TA2 on OW can't possibly be fatigued though, since those would be people who don't see Superhero movies on OW anyway and only went to TA on OW because it was the first movie of its kind.

I'm thinking this through and it occurs to me that I may have jumped that gun on this doing 190m OW. If it manages to do 87.6 and we assume that the Friday minus previews number has been affected by the 7PM shows on Thursday, then it's possible this could still match or better TA OW. 27.6 60 69 52 (208.6M OW) A little optimistic, maybe, but I think it's possible.

The previews for AOU were 9m higher than TA midnights but the business during Friday would have been 5m lower. Since the business during Friday was lower than TA business during Friday, it can be assumed that there is less interest in AOU then there was for TA and that the previews are only higher due to this being a sequel and show times beginning 7PM Thursday. Basically 190m OW is where it will end up if it acts like the other Marvel movies in terms of how much they made on Saturday and Sunday relative to Friday minus previews/midnights.

So we're not allowed to be disappointed by this number. 85m OD means 190m OW, 190m OW means 450m-475m Total. An 8.2% drop from TA OW and a drop of between 23.4% and 27.4% from TA total. How is that not disappointing?

I just realised that an 85m Friday for AOU would mean that its Friday minus previews would only be about 4m higher than IM3 Friday minus previews.

It this does 85m for OD then OW will be about 192m and the total will be about 480m.

Actually with 85m it would be very difficult for this to reach over 200m. It would have already done 4.8m less on Friday minus previews/midnights and it would almost certainly continue to lose ground over the weekend. Still I'll believe that number when I see it considering that even the early estimates weren't that low and it's 4m below the low range Rth gave. Then again the fact that they're willing to go with a number far lower than anything they reported earlier today is worrying and suggests that maybe they do know something.

Almost no increase from Friday? IM3 increased 16.5%, TA increased 11.9%. AOU only increasing 2.5% would be very surprising. I think it will look like this. Thursday : 27.6 Friday : 63.4 Saturday : 71 Sunday : 53 (215M)

It's amazing that on a box office forum there are so many who don't seem to understand how previews work. Considering that we're not in summer and that AOU is not a young adult book adaptation, 30m was basically a dream. A prediction of 25m would have made a bit more sense, but even then we're talking about a number far higher than anything we've seen for a movie in this situation before.

If you didn't like this film then it's probably a given that you are not going to like the third and fourth film. If you think it's confusing with ten main characters then just wait till IW features 20+ main heroes, Thanos, possibly a number other villains and a large number of cameos from MCU supporting characters.

Still what's being described here would be the almost impossible. The WOM for AOU would have to be so toxic that after only one day of release, people who were considering going on the second day decided not to. All this whilst the movie has huge admissions and is selling massive presales. Is the WOM for AOU in South Korea really that toxic?

Communication can be as fast as possible it still doesn't allow WOM to kick in after one day. Plus if it did then who is buying all these presale tickets, there must have been at least few hundred thousand presale tickets sold Friday unless you think that there were almost no presales for Friday. I would assume people buying presales would be able to see people's reactions to the movie as well.

There has never in the history of film been a movie where WOM kicked in after one day, it's just not feasible. It also wouldn't account for the massive presales that have been accumulated during today. The better question would be has any movie opening outside of school holidays managed to do days as big as this. If not then maybe there is just a limit of how high the attendance can be for a film on a weekday outside of school holidays.

If it wasn't for their sequels DreamWorks would only have had 5 really successful movies in 16 years. Without the expansion of the franchises they created with those movies through sequels and TV shows they would never have been able to cover the losses from all their box office bombs. The reason that DreamWorks is in this position is because they kept green lighting movies that attempted to copy Shrek by using similar humour which resulted in most of their movies feeling the same and very little variety.

Edit

You're talking about the man who made Dances with Wolves in space into the highest grossing movie of all time, simultaneously bringing 3D back into mainstream popularity. Just watch as he brings in 1 billion Domestic and 4 billion Worldwide for Avatar 2.

It became an extremely profitable series of movies that made even less sense and contained even less inteliegence than the books, somehow.

Well realistically they won't be getting nominations, my understanding is that the academy actually requires an actor to appear on screen in the movie, so they'd be ineligible anyway. If they were ever going to recognize motion capture performances then it should be this movie, both Serkis and Kebbell were brilliant.

If the academy doesn't give them both Oscars then damn them, damn them all to hell.

It should open to about 70m and the legs will be good considering the lack of competition and great word of mouth. As long as it makes it past 200m I'll be happy, although the movie is good enough that it really does to deserve to make more.

Watching this the first time is the only time that I really did cry watching either a movie or TV show. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6GDil0rGls&feature=player_detailpage

I would rather watch the entirety of ASM2's confusing attempt to connect multiple storylines whilst leaving most of them open at the end than watch another minute of Transformers 4's boring, over the top, action scenes which amount to nothing more than a collection of indistinguishable metal fighting another collection of indistinguishable metal with an occasional human reaction shot.

I'm a ten year old kid throwing the control at the screen again, good times.